quantitative reasoning and statistical methods · pdf filequantitative reasoning and...

32
MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 11.220 Quantitative Reasoning & Statistical Methods for Planners I Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms .

Upload: lylien

Post on 31-Jan-2018

227 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

MIT OpenCourseWarehttp://ocw.mit.edu

11.220 Quantitative Reasoning & Statistical Methods for Planners I Spring 2009

For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.

Page 2: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Ezra Glenn

February 2, 2009

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 3: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

Cats

“High-rise syndrome in cats”, M.O. Whitney and C. J. Mehlhaff, Journal of American Veterinary Medical Association, 1987; 191(11):1399-403.

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 4: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

Cats

●●

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cats Falling from NYC High−Rises

[after Diamond (1988) and Whitlock & Schluter (2008)]Floors

Inju

ries

per

Cat

1 2 3 4 5 6 7−8 9−32

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 5: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

Cats

floors samples1 02 83 144 275 346 21

7-8 99-32 13

Table: Number of Samples Collected by Height of Building

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 6: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

Cats

●●

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cats Falling from NYC High−Rises

[after Diamond (1988) and Whitlock & Schluter (2008)]Floors

Inju

ries

per

Cat

1 2 3 4 5 6 7−8 9−32

n= 8

n= 14

n= 27

n= 34

n= 21 n= 9

n= 13

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 7: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 8: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 9: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 10: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 11: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 12: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 13: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 14: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 15: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 16: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 17: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 18: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 19: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 20: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 21: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 22: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 23: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 24: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 25: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 26: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 27: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 28: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 29: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 30: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

develop an intuitive sense of numbers and understand theirscale and meaning through comparisons, stories, and picturesmeasure (or estimate) difficult-to-quantify planning conceptsgather, manage, and document data and sourcesvisualize complex data and relationshipsstate and investigate research hypothesesrecognize and control for random chance, and distill from ithints of meaning where possibledeal with uncertainty, both practical and existentialthink critically about the limitations of science andquantitative analysiscommunicate with integrity and persuasion to a wide varietyof audiences about quantitative information, statisticalanalysis, and scientific findings

I also expect you to think about ways to apply all of this to yourown work, and to have fun.

Goals

Together in this class, we will learn to:

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 31: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

I also expect you to think about ways to apply all of this to yourown work, and to have fun.

Goals

Together in this class, we will learn to: develop an intuitive sense of numbers and understand their scale and meaning through comparisons, stories, and pictures measure (or estimate) difficult-to-quantify planning concepts gather, manage, and document data and sources visualize complex data and relationships state and investigate research hypotheses recognize and control for random chance, and distill from it hints of meaning where possible deal with uncertainty, both practical and existential think critically about the limitations of science andquantitative analysiscommunicate with integrity and persuasion to a wide variety of audiences about quantitative information, statistical analysis, and scientific findings

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Page 32: Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods · PDF fileQuantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods Ezra Glenn February 2, 2009 Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical

Goals

Together in this class, we will learn to: develop an intuitive sense of numbers and understand their scale and meaning through comparisons, stories, and pictures measure (or estimate) difficult-to-quantify planning concepts gather, manage, and document data and sources visualize complex data and relationships state and investigate research hypotheses recognize and control for random chance, and distill from it hints of meaning where possible deal with uncertainty, both practical and existential think critically about the limitations of science andquantitative analysiscommunicate with integrity and persuasion to a wide variety of audiences about quantitative information, statistical analysis, and scientific findings

I also expect you to think about ways to apply all of this to your own work, and to have fun.

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods