public service in the political arenapolitical arena getting others - or yourself - elected to serve...

Public Service in the Political Arena

Getting others - or yourself - elected to serve our state

IntroductionAbout the Firm● Communication, polling, digital● 3 offices, operating nationally in US● Extensive Alabama experience● Strong emphasis on messaging and targeting

About Brent● Large family - 5 kids, 1 saintly wife● Experience in more than 300 campaigns● Masters in Public Relations● Advisor to politicians and organizations

across the country

Presentation SummaryGoals & Outcomes● Understand what it takes to win a modern political campaign● Identify opportunities to serve, either as a candidate or key supporter of a candidate

Key Topics● Campaign Components● Message Development● Learning from President Trump● Campaign Strategy● Survey Research● Voter Targeting● Modern Political Environment

Core Campaign ComponentsMessage● Issues● Segmentation● Delivery

Money● Fundraising● Budget● Burn Rate

Media● Earned● Paid

Develop the MessageObserve

National and state conversations; local issues

Segment

Key groups have different concerns, listen differently

Emotionalize

Connect to the heart, not the head; stories not stats

Disseminate the Message

Think through how to say what and when

Watch it grow; adjust course accordingly

Time it out to build on the whole story

Donald Trump vs. 12 Other RepublicansPersonality-Based Candidacy● All politics is personal

Simple Messages● Wall, Obamacare, Fix Washington

War of Attrition● Found & built a non-traditional coalition

Movement in the Polls● Focused on poll movement as proof

Trump GOP Primary Polling

Donald Trump vs. Hillary ClintonDriving Issues● Meat & potatoes topics

Stark Differentiation● Hillary = establishment; Trump = change

Referendum on Hillary● She couldn’t be a “change” candidate

Movement in the Polls● Blasted when down; praised when up

Trump v. Clinton Polling

Trump Messaging ComponentsUnderstanding of Audiences● Spoke their language; anger; repetition

Polarization Risks● Knew the buttons to push and did so

Aim High Then Settle● Proposed big ideas for effect then scaled down

Showmanship● Made it about Trump

Simple Theme & Messages● Clear narrative that was easily repeatable

Tap Emotions***● Focused on invoking emotional reactions

Reframe Everything to Your Frame● Held his turf and made it all fit his narrative

Final US Electoral College Results

Build the Campaign Strategy

Define Yourself

• Who you are• What you believe• Why you’re running

Take Inventory

• Assess landscapes• Know opponents• Find resources

ID Audiences

• Ignore the whole• Use segments• Speak individually

Build Structure

• Create a budget• Keep a small circle• Write a plan• Follow a timeline

Execute the Campaign Strategy

Raise the money; spend it wisely

Maintain a consistent course

Package and deliver messages regularly

How Polling is Done

Hybrid Phone

IVR/Auto to LandlineLive to Cells

Live Phone

Traditional MethodMost Costly

Web

Nearly Impossible for Local Races

What Makes a Good Poll

Correct Geographic and Demo

Stratification

Unbiased Survey

Instrument Questions

Proper Sample

Collection

Minimal Reliance on Weighting

What You Get from a Poll

Topline Report Crosstabs Analysis

Global View Micro View Actionable View

Example of Toplines

Example of Crosstabs

Basics of Voter TargetingAll About the List● Starts with an SoS voter list● Enhanced with commercial data● Not everyone is a target● Don’t stay static

Core Components● Address● Phone number● Voter history● Demographics

Voter Record Example

Building a Targeting UniversePlay Around● Look at similar past elections● Pay attention to turnout● Compare to your polling data● Pay attention to overlapping races

Gubernatorial GOP Primary● 2010 off-year - 492,480 turnout● (2012 prez - 622,514 turnout)● Heavy spending by all candidates

Building a 2018 GOP Primary Universe

Learn from Your Target Universe

Age● All elections skew older in Alabama, esp. primaries● 18-39 (7%), 40-49 (12%), 50-69 (48%), 70+ (33%)

Gender● Always more female than male● Female (52%), Male (48%)

Income● Socioeconomic status drives decision making● $50k-$74k (30%), $75-$99k (19%), $35-$49k (8%)

Media Market● ...or some other geographical breakdown is needed● BHM (40%), HSV (20%), MOB (14%)

Consequences of 2016 Election Cycle

Populism’s Rise● Not limited to the Republican Party● Disaffection drives populism

Whipping Boys● Power requires an enemy● Institutions are ripe to be the target

Copycat Candidates● Expect more Bernies and Donalds● Don’t need movements to create disruption

Divisive Primaries● Districts mean no more generals● Incumbents to get primaried more

Pay Attention to Rising PopulismDriven by Discontent● Life is not better and the future is bleak

People Feel Left Out/Behind● Elitists control the government and need to go

Big Government & Big Business Are the Problem● Big business & government are colluding; had their chance

Feeling Nostalgic● Civilization curve; go back to the way things were

Voting on Pocketbooks Issues● What have you done for me lately?

Brent Buchanan, President & Founder

brent@cygn.al +1 (202) 505-5314 x700

PO Box 96503 #68517Washington, DC 20090