probabilistic graphical models: bayesian networks li xiong

Probabilistic Graphical Models:

Bayesian Networks

Li Xiong

Slide credits: Page (Wisconsin) CS760, Zhu (Wisconsin) KDD ’12 tutorial

Outline

Graphical models

Bayesian networks - definition

Bayesian networks - inference

Bayesian networks - learning

November 5, 2017 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 2

Overview

The envelope quiz

There are two envelopes, one has a red ball ($100)

and a black ball, the other two black balls

You randomly picked an envelope, randomly took

out a ball – it was black

At this point, you are given the option to switch

envelopes. Should you?

Overview

The envelope quiz

Random variables E ∈ {1, 0}, B ∈ {r, b}

P (E = 1) = P (E = 0) = 1/2

P (B = r | E = 1) = 1/2,P (B = r | E = 0) = 0

We ask: P (E = 1 | B = b)

Overview

The envelope quiz

Random variables E ∈ {1, 0}, B ∈ {r, b}

P (E = 1) = P (E = 0) = 1/2

P (B = r | E = 1) = 1/2,P (B = r | E = 0) = 0

We ask: P (E = 1 | B = b)

P (E = 1 | B = b) = =P(B=b|E=1)P (E=1) 1/2×1/2

P (B=b) 3/4= 1/3

The graphical model:

Overview

Reasoning with uncertainty

• A set of random variables x1, . . . , xn

e.g. (x1, . . . , xn−1) a feature vector, xn ≡ y the class label

• Inference: given joint distribution p(x1, . . . , xn), computep(XQ | XE ) where XQ ∪XE ⊆ {x1 . . .xn}

e.g. Q = {n}, E = {1 . . . n − 1}, by the definition of conditional

p(x | x , . . . , xn 1 n −1) =p(x1, . . . , xn−1, xn)

Σ vp(x1, . . . , xn−1, xn = v)

• Learning: estimate p(x1, . . . , xn) from training data X(1), . . . ,X (N ),

1 nwhere X( i) = (x(i), . . . , x(i))

Overview

It is difficult to reason with uncertainty

• joint distribution p(x1, . . . , xn)

exponential naive storage (2n for binary r.v.)

hard to interpret (conditional independence)

• inference p(XQ |XE )

Often can’t afford to do it by brute force

• If p(x1, . . . , xn) not given, estimate it from data

Often can’t afford to do it by brute force

• Graphical model: efficient representation, inference, and learningon p(x1, . . . , xn), exactly or approximately

Definitions

Graphical-Model-Nots

Graphical model is the study of probabilistic models

Just because there are nodes and edges doesn’t mean it’s a graphical

These are not graphical models:

neural network decision tree network flow HMM template

Graphical Models

Bayesian networks – directed

Markov networks – undirected

Outline

Graphical models

Bayesian networks - inference

Bayesian networks - learning

Bayesian Networks: Intuition

• A graphical representation for a joint probability distribution

Nodes are random variables

Directed edges between nodes reflect dependence

• Some informal examples:

UnderstoodMaterial

Assignment Grade

ExamGrade Alarm

Smoking At Sensor

Bayesian networks

• a BN consists of a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) and a set of conditional probability distributions

• in the DAG

– each node denotes random a variable

– each edge from X to Y represents that X directly influences Y

– formally: each variable X is independent of its non-descendants given its parents

• each node X has a conditional probability distribution(CPD) representing P(X | Parents(X) )

Definitions Directed Graphical Models

Conditional Independence

Two r.v.s A, B are independent if P (A, B) = P (A)P (B) orP (A|B) = P (A) (the two are equivalent)

two are equivalent)

Bayesian networks

P(X1, … , Xn )

• a BN provides a compact representation of a joint probability distribution

P(Xi | Parents(Xi))i1

P(X1, … , Xn ) P(X1)P(Xi | X1, … , Xi1))i2

• using the chain rule, a joint probability distribution can be expressed as

Bayesian network example

• Consider the following 5 binary random variables:

B = a burglary occurs at your house

E = an earthquake occurs at your house

A = the alarm goes off

J = John calls to report the alarm

M = Mary calls to report the alarm

• Suppose we want to answer queries like what is

P(B | M, J) ?

Bayesian network example

Burglary Earthquake

JohnCalls MaryCalls

B E t f

t t 0.95 0.05

t f 0.94 0.06

f t 0.29 0.71

f f 0.001 0.999

P ( A | B, E )

0.001 0.999

P ( B )

0.001 0.999

P ( E )

0.9 0.1

0.05 0.95

P ( J |A)

0.7 0.3

0.01 0.99

P ( M |A)

Bayesian networks

P(B, E, A, J, M ) P(B)

P(A | B,E)

P(J | A)

P(M | A)

• a standard representation of the joint distribution for the Alarm example has 25 = 32 parameters

• the BN representation of this distribution has 20 parameters

Burglary Earthquake

JohnCalls MaryCalls

Bayesian networks

= 1024

• consider a case with 10 binary random variables

• How many parameters does a BN with the following graph structure have?

• How many parameters does the standard table representation of the joint distribution have?

Advantages of the Bayesian

network representation

• Captures independence and conditional independence where they exist

• Encodes the relevant portion of the full joint among

variables where dependencies exist

• Uses a graphical representation which lends insight into

the complexity of inference

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Bayesian networks – inference

Exact inference

Approximate inference

Bayesian networks – learning

Parameter learning

Network learning

The inference task in Bayesian networks

Given: values for some variables in the network (evidence), and a set of query variables

Do: compute the posterior distribution over the query variables

• variables that are neither evidence variables nor query variables are other variables

• the BN representation is flexible enough that any set can be the evidence variables and any set can be the query variables

Recall Naïve Bayesian Classifier

Derive the maximum posterior

Independence assumption

Simplified network

)()|()|(

)|(...)|()|(

)|()|(21

CixPCixPCixPn

kCixPCiP

Inference Exact Inference

Exact Inference by Enumeration

Let X = (XQ, XE ,XO ) for query, evidence, and other variables.

Infer P(XQ | XE )

By definition

Q EP (X | X ) = Q EP (X , X )

P (XE )

Σ X OQ E OP (X , X , X )

=ΣX Q ,XO

P (XQ, XE ,XO )

Inference by enumeration example

• let a denote A=true, and ¬a denote A=false

• suppose we’re given the query: P(b | j, m)

“probability the house is being burglarized given that John and Mary both called”

• from the graph structure we can first compute:

P(b, j,m)P(b)P(e)P(a |b,e)P( j | a)P(m | a)e a

sum over possible

values for E and A

variables (e, ¬e, a, ¬a)

B E P(A)

t t 0.95

t f 0.94

f t 0.29

f f 0.001

A P(J)

A P(M)

P(b, j,m) P(b)P(e)P(a | b,e)P( j | a)P(m | a)e a

P(b)P(e)P(a | b,e)P( j | a)P(m | a)e a

0.001 (0.001 0.95 0.9 0.7

0.001 0.05 0.05 0.01

0.999 0.94 0.9 0.7

0.999 0.06 0.05 0.01)

e, ¬a

¬e, a

¬ e, ¬ a

B E A J M

• now do equivalent calculation for P(¬b, j, m)

• and determine P(b | j, m)

P(b | j,m) P(b, j,m)

P(b, j,m)

P( j,m) P(b, j,m) P(b, j,m)

Inference Exact Inference

Exact Inference by Enumeration

Let X = (XQ, XE ,XO ) for query, evidence, and other variables.

Infer P(XQ | XE )

By definition

Q EP (X | X ) = Q EP (X , X )

P (XE )

Σ X OQ E OP (X , X , X )

=ΣX Q ,XO

P (XQ, XE ,XO )

Computational issue: summing exponential number of terms - with k

variables in XO each taking r values, there are rk terms

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Exact inference

Parameter learning

Network learning

Approximate (Monte Carlo) Inference

in Bayes Nets

• Basic idea: repeatedly generate data

samples according to the distribution

represented by the Bayes Net• Estimate the probability P (XQ | XE )

Inference Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Forward Sampling: Example

P(A | B, E) = 0.95

P(A | B, ~E) = 0.94

P(A | ~B, E) = 0.29

P(A | ~B, ~E) =0.001

P(J | A) =0.9

P(J | ~A) = 0.05 P(M | ~A) = 0.01

P(M | A) = 0.7

P(E)=0.002P(B)=0.001

To generate a sample X = (B, E, A, J,M ):

Sample B ∼ Ber(0.001): r ∼ U (0, 1). If (r < 0.001) then B = 1 else

Sample E ∼ Ber(0.002)

If B = 1 and E = 1, sample A ∼ Ber(0.95), and so on

If A = 1 sample J ∼ Ber(0.9) else J ∼ Ber(0.05)

If A = 1 sample M ∼ Ber(0.7) else M ∼Ber(0.01)

Inference with Forward Sampling

Given inference task is P (B = 1 | E = 1, M = 1)

Throw away all samples except those with (E = 1, M = 1)

p(B = 1 | E = 1, M = 1) ≈1

1(B ( i )=1)

where m is the number of surviving samples

Issue: Can be highly inefficient (note P (E = 1) tiny),

few samples agree with the evidence

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

• Fix evidence variables, sample non-evidence

variables

• Generate next setting probabilistically based

on current setting (Markov chain)

• Gibbs Sampling for Bayes Networks

Gibbs Sampler: Example P (B = 1 |E = 1,M = 1)

Initialization:

Fix evidence; randomly set other variablese.g. X (0) = (B = 0, E = 1, A = 0, J = 0, M = 1)

P(A | B, E) = 0.95

P(A | B, ~E) = 0.94

P(A | ~B, E) = 0.29

P(A | ~B, ~E) =0.001

P(J | A) = 0.9

P(J | ~A) =0.05

P(E)=0.002P(B)=0.001

P(M | A) = 0.7

P(M | ~A) =0.01

Gibbs Update• For each non-evidence variable xi, fixing all other nodes X−i,

resample xi ∼ P (xi | X− i) equivalent to xi ∼ P (xi | MarkovBlanket(xi))

• MarkovBlanket(xi) includes xi’s parents, spouses, and children

P (xi | MarkovBlanket(xi)) ∝ P (xi |P a(xi)) P (y |P a(y))y∈C(xi)

where P a(x) are the parents of x, and C(x) the children of x.

Example: B ∼ P (B | E = 1, A = 0, J = 0, M = 1)

∝ P (B | E = 1, A = 0) ∝P (B)P (A = 0 | B, E = 1)

P(J | A) = 0.9 P(M | A) =0. 7

P(B)=0.001 P(E)=0.002

P(A | B, E) = 0.95

P(A | B, ~E) = 0.94

P(A | ~B, E) = 0.29

P(A | ~B, ~E) =0.001

Gibbs Update

• Say we sampled B = 1. Then

X(1) = (B = 1, E = 1, A = 0, J = 0, M = 1)

• Sample A ∼ P (A | B = 1, E = 1, J = 0, M = 1) to get X(2)

• Move on to J, then repeat B, A, J,B, A, J . . .

• Keep all later samples, P (B = 1 | E = 1, M = 1) is the fraction of

samples with B = 1.

P(A | B, E) = 0.95

P(A | B, ~E) = 0.94

P(A | ~B, E) = 0.29

P(A | ~B, ~E) =0.001

P(J | A) = 0.9

P(J | ~A) =0.05

P(E)=0.002P(B)=0.001

P(M | A) = 0.7

P(M | ~A) =0.01

Gibbs Sampling as a Markov Chain

• A Markov chain is defined by a transition matrix T (X j |X )

• Certain Markov chains have a stationary distribution π such thatπ = Tπ

• Gibbs sampler is such a Markov chain withTi((X−i, xj

i) | (X−i, x i)) = p(xji | X−i), and stationarydistribution

p(xQ | XE )

• It takes time for the chain to reach stationary distribution

• In practice: discard early ones

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Exact inference

Parameter learning

Parameter learning and inference with partial data

Network learning

The parameter learning task

• Given: a set of training instances, the graph structure of a BN

• Do: infer the parameters of the CPDs

B E A J M

f f f t f

f t f f f

f f t f t

Burglary Earthquake

JohnCalls MaryCalls

The parameter and data learning task

• Given: a set of training instances (with some missing or

unobservable data), the graph structure of a BN

infer the missing data values

B E A J M

f f ? t f

f t ? f f

f f ? f t

Burglary Earthquake

JohnCalls MaryCalls

The structure learning task

• Given: a set of training instances

• Do: infer the graph structure (and perhaps the parameters of the CPDs too)

B E A J M

f f f t f

f t f f f

f f t f t

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Exact inference

Parameter learning

Parameter and data learning with partial data

Network learning

The parameter learning task

• Given: a set of training instances, the graph structure of a BN

B E A J M

f f f t f

f t f f f

f f t f t

Burglary Earthquake

JohnCalls MaryCalls

Parameter learning and maximum

likelihood estimation

• maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)

– given a model structure (e.g. a Bayes net graph) and a set of data D

– set the model parameters θ to maximize P(D | θ)

• i.e. make the data D look as likely as possible under the model P(D | θ)

Maximum likelihood estimation

for h heads in n flips

the MLE is h/n

x1L = P(x|) (1 )1x1 xn (1 )1xn

xi(1 )

consider trying to estimate the parameter θ (probability of heads) of

a biased coin from a sequence of flips

x 1,1,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,1

the likelihood function for θ is given by:

P( j | a) 30.75

P(j | a) 1 0.25

P( j | a) 20.5

P(j | a) 2 0.5

P(b) 1 0.125

7P(b) 0.875

B E A J M

f f f t f

f t f f f

f f f t t

t f f f t

f f t t f

f f t f t

f f t t t

consider estimating the CPD parameters for B and J in the alarm

network given the following data set

P(b) 0 0

8P(b) 1

B E A J M

f f f t f

f t f f f

f f f t t

f f f f t

f f t t f

f f t f t

f f t t t

suppose instead, our data set was this…

do we really want to

set this to 0?

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation

• instead of estimating parameters strictly from the data, we could start with some prior belief for each

• for example, we could use Laplace estimates

• where nv represents the number of occurrences of value v

P(X x) nx 1

(nv 1)vValues( X )

pseudocounts

Maximum a posteriori estimation

a more general form: m-estimates

P(X x) nx pxm

vValues( X )

nv m number of “virtual” instances

prior probability of value x

M-estimates example

B E A J M

f f f t f

f t f f f

f f f t t

f f f f t

f f t t f

f f t f t

f f t t t

now let’s estimate parameters for B using m=4 and pb=0.25

P(b) 0 0.25 4

1 0.08

8 4 12P(b)

8 0.75 4

11 0.92

8 4 12

Incorporating a Prior

• The pseudo-counts are really parameters of a beta distribution

• beta distribution (a, b) is the conjugate prior for the parameter p given the likelihood function

• We can specify initial parameters a and b such that a/(a+b)=p, and specify confidence in this belief with high initial values for a and b

• After h heads out n trials, posterior distribution is P(heads)=(a+h)/(a+b+n).

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Exact inference

Parameter learning

Parameter learning + inference

Network learning

The parameter learning task + inference

• Given: a set of training instances (with some missing or

unobservable data), the graph structure of a BN

infer the missing data values

B E A J M

f f ? t f

f t ? f f

f f ? f t

Burglary Earthquake

JohnCalls MaryCalls

Inferring missing data and

parameter learning with EM

Given:

• data set with some missing values

• model structure, initial model parameters

Repeat until convergence

• Expectation (E) step: using current model, compute expectation over missing values

• Maximization (M) step: given the expectations,

compute/update maximum likelihood (MLE) or

maximum posterior probability (MAP, maximum a

posteriori) parameters

example: EM for parameter learning

B E A J M

f f ? f f

f f ? t f

t f ? t t

f f ? f t

f t ? t f

f f ? f t

t t ? t t

f f ? f f

f f ? t f

f f ? f t

B E P(A)

t t 0.9

t f 0.6

f t 0.3

f f 0.2

A P(J)

A P(M)

suppose we’re given the following initial BN and training set

example: E-step

t: 0.0069

f: 0.9931f f

t:0.98

f: 0.02

t: 0.2

f: 0.8

t: 0.3

f: 0.7

f: 0.8

t: 0.997

f: 0.003

t: 0.0069

f: 0.9931

f: 0.8

t: 0.2

f: 0.8f t

B E P(A)

t t 0.9

t f 0.6

f t 0.3

f f 0.2

A P(J)

A P(M)

P(a |b,e,j,m)

example: E-stepP(b,e,a,j,m)

P(a |b,e,j,m) P(b,e,a,j,m) P(b,e,a,j,m)

0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2

0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

0.00288

.4176 0.0069

P(b,e,a, j,m)P(a |b,e, j,m)

P(b,e,a, j,m) P(b,e,a, j,m)

0.9 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.2

0.9 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.9

0.02592

.1296 0.2

P(a | b,e, j,m)P(b,e,a, j,m)

P(b,e,a, j,m) P(b,e,a, j, m)

0.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8

0.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1

0.03456

.0352 0.98

example: M-step

B E A J M

f f t: 0.0069 f ff: 0.9931

f f t:0.2 t ff:0.8

t f t:0.98 t tf: 0.02

f f t: 0.2 f tf: 0.8

f t t: 0.3 t ff: 0.7

f f t:0.2 f tf: 0.8

t t t: 0.997 t tf: 0.003

f f t: 0.0069 f ff: 0.9931

f f t:0.2 t ff: 0.8

f f t: 0.2 f tf: 0.8

P(a | b,e) 0.997

P(a | b,e) 0.98

P(a |b,e) 0.3

P(a |b,e) 0.0069 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0069 0.2 0.2

P(a | b,e) E #(a b e)

E #(b e)

re-estimate probabilities

using expected counts

B E P(A)

t t 0.997

t f 0.98

f t 0.3

f f 0.145

re-estimate probabilities for

P(J | A) and P(M | A) in same way

Convergence of EM

• E and M steps are iterated until probabilities converge

• will converge to a maximum in the data likelihood

(MLE or MAP)

• the maximum may be a local optimum, however

• the optimum found depends on starting conditions

(initial estimated probability parameters)

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Exact inference

Parameter learning

Network learning

Learning structure + parameters

• number of structures is super-exponential in the number of variables

• finding optimal structure is NP-complete problem

• two common options:

– search very restricted space of possible structures

(e.g. networks with tree DAGs)

– use heuristic search (e.g. sparse candidate)

The Chow-Liu algorithm(Chow & Liu 1968)

• learns a BN with a tree structure that maximizes the likelihood of the training data

• algorithm

1. compute weight I(Xi, Xj) of each possible edge (Xi, Xj)

2. find maximum weight spanning tree (MST)

3. assign edge directions in MST

The Chow-Liu algorithm

1. use mutual information to calculate edge weights

I(X,Y )P(x, y)

P(x, y) log2P(x)P(y)

x values(X ) y values(Y )

2. find maximum weight spanning tree: a maximal-weight tree that connects all vertices in a graph

Prim’s algorithm for finding an MST

given: graph with vertices V and edges E

← { v } where v is an arbitrary vertex from V

← { }

repeat until Vnew = V

choose an edge (u, v) in E with max weight where u is in Vnew and v is not

add v to Vnew and (u, v) to Enew

return Vnew and Enew which represent an MST

Kruskal’s algorithm for finding an MST

given: graph with vertices V and edges E

Enew ← { }

for each (u, v) in E ordered by weight (from high to low)

remove (u, v) from E

if adding (u, v) to Enew does not create a cycle

add (u, v) to Enew

return V and Enew which represent an MST

Returning directed graph in Chow-Liu

3. pick a node for the root, and assign edge directions

• How do we know that Chow-Liu will find a tree that maximizes the data likelihood?

• Two key questions:

– Why can we represent data likelihood as sum of I(X;Y)

over edges?

– Why can we pick any direction for edges in the tree?

Glog P(D | G, )

2log P(x

(d ) | Pa(X ))i i

D I(Xi, Pa(Xi))H (Xi))i

P(Xi, Pa(Xi))log2P(Xi, Pa(Xi)) / Pa(Xi)) D i values(Xi,Pa(Xi ))

P(Xi, Pa(Xi))log2P(Xi | Pa(Xi)))i values(Xi,Pa( Xi ))

D i values(Xi,Pa( Xi ))

P(Xi, Pa(Xi))log2P(Xi, Pa(Xi)) / P(Xi)(Pa(Xi)))P(Xi, Pa(Xi))log2 P(Xi)

Why Chow-Liu maximizes likelihood (for a tree)

data likelihood given directed edges of G, best fit parametersG

(since summing over all examples is equivalent to computing average

over all examples and then multiplying by total number of examples |D|)

Glog P(D | G, ) log P(x (d )

2 i i| Parents(X ))

Why Chow-Liu maximizes likelihood (for a tree)

data likelihood given directed edges

argmaxG log P(D | G,G ) argmaxG I(Xi, X j )

D I (Xi,Parents(Xi)) H (Xi ))i

we’re interested in finding the graph G that maximizes this

argmaxG log P(D | G,G ) argmaxG I (Xi,Parents(Xi))i

if we assume a tree, one node has no parents, all others have exactly one

(Xi ,X j )edges

edge directions don’t matter for likelihood, because MI is symmetric

I (Xi, X j ) I (X j , Xi)

Learning structure + parameters

• number of structures is super-exponential in the number of variables

• finding optimal structure is NP-complete problem

• two common options:

– search very restricted space of possible structures

(e.g. networks with tree DAGs)

– use heuristic search (e.g. sparse candidate)

Heuristic search for structure learning

• each state in the search space represents a DAG Bayes net structure

• to instantiate a search approach, we need to specify

– state transition operators

– scoring function for states

– search algorithm (how to move through state space)

The typical structure search operators

add an edge

reverse an edge

given the current network

at some stage of the search,

we can…

delete an edge

Scoring function decomposability

• If score is likelihood, and all instances in D are complete,

then score can be decomposed as follows (and so can

some other scores we’ll see later)

score(G, D) score(Xi,Parents(Xi) : D)i

• thus we can

– score a network by summing terms over the nodes in

the network

– efficiently score changes in a local search procedure

Bayesian network search:

hill-climbinggiven: data set D, initial network B0

Bbest←B0

while stopping criteria not met

for each possible operator application a

Bnew ← apply(a, Bi)

if score(Bnew) > score(Bbest)

Bbest ← Bnew

Bi ← Bbest

return Bi

Bayesian network search:

the Sparse Candidate algorithm[Friedman et al., UAI 1999]

given: data set D, initial network B0, parameter k

repeat

// restrict step

select for each variable Xj a set Cji (|Cj | ≤ k) of candidate parents

// maximize step

find network Bi maximizing score among networks where∀Xj, Parents(Xj) ⊆Cj

} until convergence

return Bi

• to identify candidate parents in the first iteration, can compute the mutual information between pairs of variables, select top k

• subsequent iterations, condition on parents with conditional

mutual information:

The restrict step in Sparse Candidate

P(x,y)I(X,Y ) P(x, y)log

P(x)P(y)

P(x, y | z)I(X,Y | Z) P(x, y, z) log

P(x | z)P(y | z)

The maximize step in Sparse Candidate

• hill-climbing search with add-edge, delete-edge, reverse-edge operators

• test to ensure that cycles aren’t introduced into the graph

Scoring functions for structure learning

• Can we find a good structure just by trying to maximize the likelihood of the data?

argmaxG, logP(D | G,G)G

• Can we find a good structure just by trying to maximize the likelihood of the data?

argmaxG, logP(D | G,G)G

• If we have a strong restriction on the the structures allowed (e.g. a tree), then maybe.

• Otherwise, no! Adding an edge will never decrease likelihood. Overfitting likely.

• one general approach (where n is number of data points)

argminG, G

f (n)G logP(D | G,G)

complexity penalty

Akaike Information Criterion (AIC):

Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC):

when f (n) 1

f (n) 1

log(n) 2

Bayesian Networks

Graphical models

Exact inference

Parameter learning

Parameter learning + inference

Network learning

probabilistic graphical models: bayesian networks li xiong

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