pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013

Pretotyping

Guilherme Motta@gfcmotta

gfcmotta at gmail

Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certaAntes de construir certo “a coisa”

@gfcmotta

Tive uma ideia genial!

Background do Alberto

Pretotyping

Alberto Savoia

PretotypeLabs+

• 1999-2001

Startup 1

• 3M USD Series A

• +18 meses depois..

• vendeu por $100M

Hey, this is easy!

• 2001-2002

Entrou na Google como Diretor de Eng

• ..., lançou AdWords, ...

Hey, I’m good!

• 2002-2008

Startup 2

• $25M Series A, B, C

• +5 anos depois..

• ~$0

Porque o

fracasso?

2008-2012

Innovation AgitatorEngineering Diretor

Estudando fracasso de novos Produtos

A Lei do Fracasso

A maioria das novas ideias falham

Mais de 95% dos aplicativos mobile nao sao lucrativos

4 a cada 5 startups disperdicam o dinheiro dos investidores

As tecnologias mais inovadoras falham no mercado

Em um ano, 24.543 novos produtos*

Falharam 27%

Desapontaram 16%

Cancelados 37%

Sucesso 14%

“Espetaculares” 6%

Total 100%

* Nielsen

Novos Produtos

Categoria # de produtos % de produtos

Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)

334 1.4%

Line or categoryExtension

1,705 6.9%

“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)

18,814 76.7%

Others(seasonal, etc.)

3,690 15.0%

Total 24,543 100%

* Nielsen

334 1.4%

1,705 6.9%

18,814 76.7%

3,690 15.0%

Total 24,543 100%

Novos Produtos

* Nielsen

Porque?

Novos Produtos

* Nielsen

334 1.4%

1,705 6.9%

18,814 76.7%

3,690 15.0%

Total 24,543 100%

Pouca disputa,

Mas GRANDE resultado

A Lei do Fracasso

A maioria das novas ideias falham

MESMO QUE ELAS SEJAM MUITO BEM EXECUTADAS

Alguns fracassos notaveis

• Iridium satellite phone system (66 satellites, $6B)

• “New Coke” ou “Crystal Pepsi” (est. $50M)

• Filme “John Carter” ($275M + $100M in marketing)

• Google Wave (~$20-30M)

• Segway transporter (~$180M in funding)

• Pontiac Aztek ($200M+)

• Apple Newton (est. $50M)

• CueCat USB barcode scanner ($180M)

• Microsoft Bob or “Clippy” (est. $50M)

Ate mesmo com..

Acontece com o Google..

Acontece com a Microsoft..

Acontece com inventores e VCs brilhantes

Acontece com os melhores marketeiros do

Com voce nao?

HIT or FLOP

F.L.O.P.Fracasso emLancamentoOperacional ouProposito

Pretotypingao Resgate!

Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certa

Antes de construir certo

“a coisa”

Pretotyping

Mas como que voce sabe se voce tem a “coisa” certa?

NAO PERGUNTE!

Literalmente.. Nao pergunte.

Ideias +Perguntas =PROBLEMA

IDEIAIDEIA

Opinião Opinião

Bem vindo aBem vindo a

Terra das Terra das IdeiasIdeias

asavoia@gmail.com Alberto Savoia www.pretotyping.org

VisaoVisaoIdeiasIdeiasOpinioesOpinioesPaixaoPaixao

RealidadeRealidadeArtefatosArtefatos

DadosDados RazaoRazao

Pretotyping

Terra das IdeiasOnde todas as ideias sao um sucesso!

Falso Po

sitivo

Terra das IdeiasOnde todas as ideias sao um fracasso!

Falso Ne

gativo

??????

Fuja da Terra das Ideias!

Opinioes -> Dados

Perguntas -> Acoes

Ideias -> Pretotypes

Mas o que e’pretotype?

O original Palm “Pre”

Dear Mr. Jones,

In reply to your letter dated ...

$$$$$$$

“Nos amamos a ideia de traducao de fala para texto e nos estamos dispostos a pagar muito dinheiro se voce conseguir

construir bem feito”

Antes dos testescom pretotype

Porcentagem de

pessoas interessadas

Dear Mr. Jones,

In reply to your letter dated ...

Pretendotype

Pretotype

“Veja bem..”

Antes dopretotype

Depois dopretotype

Fail Fast

Compulsividadepara continuar

minutos horas dias semanas

Tempo investido

meses anos

Pretotyping“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa

Prototyping• Investimento: dias, semanas• Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir?• Entregavel: prototipo funcional

Pretotyping• Investimento: horas, dias• Pergunta principal: Voce usaria?• Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”

Pretotyping“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa

Prototyping• Investimento: dias, semanas• Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir?• Entregavel: prototipo funcional

Pretotyping• Investimento: horas, dias• Pergunta principal: Voce usaria?• Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”

Como con

struir?

Como ser

a utiliz

•Prototipo de Papel

•Prototipo de Volume

•Encenacao

•Storyboard

•…

Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],

verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.

Exemplos de tecnicas

Pretotyping

The Fake DoorPretotypes

Pretotype Itwww.pretotypeitbook.comThe official book on pretotypingby Alberto Savoia. Only $20.00

Mechanical TurkPretotypes

PinocchioPretotypes

Pretotypes Personificador

Produto Produto Existente Existente

ou ou embalageembalage

Nova “casca”Nova “casca”

One-Night StandPretotypes

PretoStorming

Brainstorming : Ideas -> Opinions

Pretostorming : Pretotypes -> Data

MVPPretotypes

MinimumViableProduct

Pretotypingin

Action

Mobile Apps

Android Pretotyping Kit 0.1The Birth of Android Pretotyping

SendSend

ParkJerk

AndrogenPretotyping Tool for Android

+ + =?

AndrogenPretotype working Android

apps in minutes

179.2179.2

SendSend

Enter your weight:

Pretotype It!Pawsbook: Social network for pets (B2C)

GhostBus: Self-driving city buses (B2B, B2Gov)

Offering free lunch and dinner to all employees (Internal)

UNuke: Small nuclear power stations for rural communities (B2Gov)

Vanity Fare: Food/drinks enriched with ingredients for great skin and hair (B2B)

HappyGlass: Windows that convert/create light spectrum to fight SAD (Seasonal Affective

Disorders) (B2B or B2C)

GoldHound: A luxury version of GreyHound with first-class seating and treatment (B2B)

InstaNap: The opposite of energy drinks like RedBull or 5hr Energy (B2B)

SpeedInterviewing: Like speed-dating but for candidate interviews (Internal)

2nd-day Sushi: Less-fresh but lower-cost sushi (B2C)

Rent-a-mechanic: Rent an expert for used car shopping and negotiating (B2C)

Self-funded extended warranty: Automatically saves in a your fund from each purchase (B2C)

EatSlow plates: Food plates that open and close to slow down your eating (B2C)

Biodegradable holiday lights: Lights that take themselves down after the holidays (B2C)

TakeMySpot: Mobile app/service to auction the parking spot you are about to vacate (B2C, B2Gov)

OopsMail: a corporate email filter that automatically detects & re-routs inappropriate emails

(B2C, Internal)

Fake-a-Mate: Rent a pretend great boy/girlfriend for social events (B2C)

ReviewsNow: a mobile app for on-the-spot/real-time employee micro-reviews and feedback

(Internal)

MeetGrinder: a smart corporate calendar that (re)arranges meetings to maximize meeting-free

time (B2B, Internal)

Quer saber mais?

gfcmotta@gmail.com

PDF Gratis e na AmazonQuer em Portugues? Ajude a traduzir!

Livros Videos

Twitter: @gfcmotta

asavoia@gmail.com Twitter: @Pretotyping

PretoMetrics

Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],

verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.

An Intro toPretotyping Metrics

RPI: Return on Pretotyping Investment

ILI/OLI: Initial/Ongoing Level of Interest

PretoBayesian Metrics: How to factor in the impact of pretotyping data in decision making

RPIReturn on

PretotypingInvestment

Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________

Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X

How much (%) can you learn from a given pretotype compared to the full product.

How much (%) can you learn from a prototype or final product. Set to 100% for the final product.

How much would it cost (time or $) to develop and test/market a prototype or the final product.

How much would it cost (time or $) to create and test a given pretotype.

RPI for a WebvanPretotype

What should we learn?(before we blow $100M)

Will people use the web to order groceries?

What % of people would use it?

How often would they use it?

Will people in cities use it more than people in suburbs?

What kind of products will they buy?

What’s the $ value of average transaction?

How many will continue to use it after the novelty has worn off?

Pretotype for

Pretotype 1: MVP

Create a high-quality website.

Advertise locally in a major city (e.g., San Francisco) and a suburb (e.g., Palo Alto.)

If/when orders come in, purchase food at existing stores.

Rent delivery trucks and hire temporary personnel to deliver food.

Run experiment for, say, 4 weeks.

$ RPI for

.75 $100M

1.00 $1M

RPI = .75 x 100 = 75 = 7500% cheaper

RPI vs RIP

We shouldaWe shouldapretotyped pretotyped

it!it!Yup.Yup.

Time RPI for

.50 60 mos

.80 1 mos

RPI = .62 x 60 = 37.5x “faster learning”

ILI/OLILevel of Interest

(If we build, will they come?)

Initial Level of Interest:

What % of a target group is interested in ‘it’ to give it a try?

ILI = ________________________________

# invited to try ‘it’

# who’ve actually tried ‘it’

Small representativesample (~100-

1,000)

I (1000)

T (741)

ILI in Action

Target market

ILI = 741/1,000 = .741

Ongoing Level of Interest:

What % of a target group continues to use/buy ‘it’ after they’ve tried it.

OLI(t)

OLI(t) = __________________________________________

# who tried ‘it’

# still using ‘it’ after time t

I (people invited to try innovation)

T (people who actually try it)

R4 (...4 weeks)R2 (...2 weeks)

R1 (return/retained users after 1 week)

ILI: Initial Level of Interest

OLI: Ongoing Level of Interest

OLI in Action

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