preparing the workforce to meet the challenge of. andreas schlei… · preparing the workforce to...

Preparing the workforce to

meet the challenge of

technology

PIAAC Research Conference, Rome

Andreas Schleicher

Director for Education and Skills, OECD

2

Digitalisation

Democratizing

Concentrating

Particularizing

Homogenizing

Empowering

Disempowering

The post-truth world where reality becomes fungible

• Virality seems privileged over quality in the distribution of information

• Truth and fact are losing currency

Scarcity of attention and abundance of information

• Algorithms sort us into groups of like-minded individuals create echo chambers that amplify our views, leave us uninformed of opposing arguments, and polarise our societies

3

Digitalisation

Democratizing

Concentrating

Particularizing

Homogenizing

Empowering

Disempowering

4

Digitalisation

Democratizing

Concentrating

Particularizing

Homogenizing

Empowering

Disempowering

The new nature of the firm

• Digital “platform” technology drives the (re)organisation of firms

• Small units of employment with global reach require re-think of what “small” means (employment or revenue to market share)

• Peer-to-peer markets are blurring the distinction between a consumer and a business

• Governments work with platforms to implement policies

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Pe

ru

Slo

vak

Rep

ub

lic

Lith

uan

ia

Me

xico

Turk

ey

Gre

ece

Jap

an

Ger

man

y

Ecu

ado

r

Slo

ven

ia

Ch

ile

Spai

n

Kaz

akh

stan

Cyp

rus¹

Hu

nga

ry

Ital

y

Po

lan

d

Fran

ce

Ru

ssia

n F

ed

era

tio

n²

OEC

D a

vera

ge

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Au

stri

a

Isra

el

Ko

rea

Esto

nia

Ire

lan

d

Flan

der

s (B

elg

ium

)

Can

ada

Sin

gap

ore

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

(U

K)

Net

her

lan

ds

De

nm

ark

Un

ite

d S

tate

s 2

01

7

Engl

and

(U

K)

Un

ite

d S

tate

s 2

01

2/2

01

4

Au

stra

lia

Swed

en

Fin

lan

d

New

Zea

lan

d

No

rway

High likelihood of automation (>70%) Significant likelihood of automation (50-70%)

Percentage of workers

Likelihood of automation or significant change to jobs

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Conservative - Demand Regulated - Demand Disruptive - Demand Baseline - Demand

Conservative - Supply Regulated - Supply Disruptive - Supply Baseline - Supply

m.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Conservative - Demand Regulated - Demand Disruptive - Demand Baseline - Demand

Conservative - Supply Regulated - Supply Disruptive - Supply Baseline - Supply

m.

Projected supply and demand for truck drivers

6

US Europe

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Conservative - Demand Regulated - Demand Disruptive - Demand Baseline - Demand

Conservative - Supply Regulated - Supply Disruptive - Supply Baseline - Supply

m.

Source: ITF (2017), Managing the Transition to Driverless Road Freight transport, Paris.

Skills and the risk auf automation

Australia

Austria

Canada

Chile

Cyprus¹

Czech Republic

Denmark

Ecuador

England (UK)

Estonia

Flanders (Belgium)

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Kazakhstan

KoreaLithuania

Mexico

Netherlands

Northern Ireland (UK)

OECD average

Peru

Poland

Russian Federation²

Singapore

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

United States 2012/2014

United States 2017

R² = 0.273

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Risk of automation

Skill

s (P

IAA

C N

um

era

cy)

Tasks

without

use of ICT

Tasks with

use of ICT

Non routine tasks

Routine tasks

Non routine tasks

Routine tasks

Tasks

without

use of ICT

Tasks with

use of ICT

TWO EFFECTS OF DIGITALISATION

Non routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Non routine tasks,

High use of ICT

Routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Routine tasks,

High use of ICT

Non routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Non routine tasks,

High use of ICT

Routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Routine tasks,

High use of ICT

TWO EFFECTS OF DIGITALISATION

(C)

ADDITIONAL RETURNS TO SKILLS IN DIGITAL-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017 , Statlink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933617472

See: Grundke et al. (2018), Which skills for the digital era? Returns to skills analysis

0

2

4

6

8

10

12%

Returns to skills in less digital-intensive industries

Additional returns to skills in digital-intensive industries

not significant

EXPECTED EFFECT OF INCREASE FROM 50TH TO 75TH PCTILE OF DIGITAL EXPOSURE ON

PROBABILITY OF LEARNING AT LEAST ONCE A WEEK

0%

20%

40%

60%

Learning from co-workers Learning by doing Keeping up to date

ICT USE AND NON-ROUTINE INTENSITY

ENHANCE FORMS OF LEARNING

ICT INTENSITY

NON-ROUTINE INTENSITY

Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

EcuadorPeru

TurkeyMexico

KazakhstanGreece

ChilePoland

LithuaniaRussian Federation²

Slovak RepublicIreland

IsraelUnited States 2012/2014

SloveniaHungary

Northern Ireland (UK)United States 2017

OECD averageEstonia

England (UK)Australia

KoreaCanadaAustria

Czech RepublicFlanders (Belgium)

GermanyJapan

New ZealandNorway

NetherlandsDenmark

SingaporeSwedenFinland

55-65 Level 2 55-65 Level 3

Level 2 Level 3

%

Skills to manage complex digital informationOlder adults (55-65)Young adults (25-34)

The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy

to automate, digitize or outsource

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interpersonal

Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution

Education won the race with technology throughout history, but there is no automaticity it will do so in the future

Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

Industrial revolution

Digital revolution

Social pain

Universal public schooling

Technology

Education

Prosperity

Social pain

Prosperity

The multi-faceted world of knowledge

The human world of knowledge

The small world of the curriculum

The small world of the curriculum

The small world of the curriculum

The small world of the curriculum

The small world of the curriculum

The small world of the curriculum

The TrueThe realm of human knowledge The Good

The realm of ethics and judgementThe Just and Well-Ordered

The realm of political and civic life, binding social capital

The BeautifulThe realm of creativity,

esthetics and designThe SustainableThe realm of natural and physical health The Prosperous

The realm of economic life

The big world of learning

Learning Compass: Competencies

• Knowledge

• Skills

• Attitudes

and values

24

Learning compass: Knowledge

• Disciplinary

• Interdisciplinary

• Epistemic

• Procedural

25

Learning compass: Skills

• Cognitive & meta-

cognitive

• Social & emotional

• Physical & practical

26

Transformative competencies

• Creating new value

• Taking responsibility

• Reconciling tensions & dilemmas

27

Implications for pedagogy

• Anticipation

• Action

• Reflection

28

Redefining success

Learning, unlearning and relearning throughout life

Primary and

secondary

education

Job:

Same sector

age

From:

To:

age

Job

Adult upskilling and reskilling

Tertiary:

specialise

Retire

and

pension

Primary and

secondary

education

ECEC Tertiary:

transversalJob Job Job Job

JobJob

BUT: LOW-SKILLED ARE

LESS LIKELY TO PARTICIPATE IN TRAINING

0

20

40

60

80

Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)

SHARE OF WORKERS WHO PARTICIPATED IN ON-THE-JOB TRAINING IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR

BY EDUCATION LEVEL (%)

tertiary – master/research

degree

lower secondary or less

Financial measures do not reach the groups most in need

Note: High-skilled adults score at level 5 or above in literacy and/or numeracy, while low-skilled adults score below level 2 in literacy and/or numeracy.Source: OECD (2018), OECD calculations based on Survey of Adults Skills database (PIAAC) (2012, 2015), www.oecd.org/skills/piaac.

% of employees receiving employer financial support for education or training, by skills level, 25-64 year-olds

39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90%

low skilled high skilled

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100%

Participated, but does not want to participate (more)

Did not participate, and does not want to participate

Willingness to participate in adult learning is low

Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2017) Survey of Adults Skills database (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).

Adults not willing to participate, % of 25-64 year-olds, 2012/2015

17

Firms as learning environments

• How is the additional funding shared between Governments, employers and beneficiaries?

• What are the incentives?

• Who sets the standards?

• How are the levels of skills recognised?

• Who trains the trainers?

CERTIFYING SKILLS DEVELOPMENT IN A DIGITAL WORLD

• The digital transformation expands and diversifies education, training and learning opportunities.

• The certification of skills becomes increasingly important: employers need clear signals on workers’ skills.

• Firms are increasingly testing skills on their own while relying less on diplomas. How to certify skills and who should be in charge of it?

• Preferred option: Independent regulated systems for skills certification?

People outside firms

• Unemployed: Government. Funding for unemployment benefits, used for training?

• People at high risk of losing their jobs: firms or Government?

• People who want to change jobs

• Gig economy

Governance challenges

• New forms of work: fewer taxes raised

• Ageing societies: higher expenditure in health and pensions

• Decentralised information: less control

• Link between education and jobs weakened: the role of Governments risks been diminished

• Need to predict rapid changes in skills demands and respond to them

Routine cognitive skills

Complex ways of thinking, complex ways of

doing, collective capacity

Some students learn at high levels (sorting) All students need to learn at high levelsStudent inclusion

Curriculum, instruction and assessment

Standardisation and compliance High-level professional knowledge workersTeacher education

‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegialWork organisation

Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholdersAccountability

Industrial systems World class systems

When fast gets really fast, being slow to adapt

makes education really slow

Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org/pisa

– All publications

– The complete micro-level database

Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org

Twitter: SchleicherOECD

Wechat: AndreasSchleicher

Thank you