predicting 2012 homicides in st. louis alan chang curt rozycki kris turner is 6833 spring 2012

PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS

Alan ChangCurt Rozycki

Kris Turner

IS 6833SPRING 2012

According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United

States in 2011.

An Index Score of 100 is equal to the national crime rate. This means that St. Louis had a crime rate of

more than five times the national average.

City Crime Risk Index1. St. Louis 5302. Atlanta 4843. Birmingham Alabama (tie) 3803. Orlando (tie) 3805. Detroit 369

Introduction

Collect geographic

data

Project Start

Analysis Regression

Model(Individual)

Run Multiple

Regression

Analysis the X and Y variable

Predict the number of

2012

Project Close

Determine which

models for 2011

Linear Regression model for

2012

Determine IndividualVariable

Analysis Approach Flow Chart

St. Louis City Map (79 different neighborhoods)

2011 St. Louis City Homicide Cases

Baden

Jeff

Vande

rlou

Well

s-Goo

dfell

ow

The G

reat

er V

ille

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Waln

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East

Mou

nt P

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Gravo

is Par

k

Colleg

e Hill

Tower

Gro

ve S

outh

Penro

se

Peabo

dy-D

arst

-Web

be

Mar

k Twain

Dutch

town

Caron

delet

Bento

n Par

k W

est

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t End

Old Nor

th S

t. Lo

uis

Lewis

Place

Kingsw

ay E

ast

Fount

ain P

ark

Fairgr

ound

Downt

own

Wes

t

Acade

my

Other

s0

5

10

15

20

25

Basic DataBasic Data

Variable List

• Population

• Murder/capita

• Race (White/Africa American/Asian)

• Median Household Income

• Education Level (Complete High School Degree)

• Married

• Male/Female Ratio

• Have Children (under 18yrs)

• Median Home Value

2011 Homicide Victim Statistics

Regression Models

• Married/Median Household Income Model A• African American/Median Household

Income/Education Level/Married Model B• White Only/Median Household IncomeModel C• African American/Median Household

Income/Education LevelModel D• White Only/Median Household Income/Education

Level/Married Model E• Population/White Only/African American Only/Asian

OnlyModel F• African American Only/Population Density/Median

Household Income/Education LevelModel G

Total 16 different Models

Model Comparison (Regression Analysis)Model # R2 rank standard error rank p-value

1 0.104425 1.7999778562 0.515914 1.3939982623 0.0673 1.9089859914 0.509208 1.3941036365 0.098245 1.9025900136 0.56733 1.3270107337 0.512107 1.3994685498 0.491267 1.400555898 9.02547E-139 0.301945722

10 0.05007308211 0.62881435612 0.07567520713 0.84735099214 5.29485E-1415 0.775289 0.94302756616 0.784019 0.937279387

16 Models Regression Analysis16 Models

Regression Analysis

Best Model (Africa American + Murder/capita + Median Household Income + Education)

Estimate 79 different neighborhoods

Analysis 79 neighborhoods

2012 Total 194 Homicides Result of the 2012 Result of 2012 predict

Predictions by Neighborhood

Red -=> 5

Yellow -2~4

Green -<2

Top dangerous neighborhoods1. Fairground 2. Baden3. Jeff Vanderlou 4. Dutchtown

How to improve the prediction

• More updated yearly data by neighborhood

• More variables need provide (guns holders/drug users/genders)

• Other modeling method

Conclusion

The model presented can be used to provide information to decision makers, such as social worker, polices, and people who want buy a new house.

• http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/02/16/the-11-most-dangerous-cities

Reference

• St. Louis City Guide (Education level/Household income..) http://www.areavibes.com/st.+louis-mo/neighborhoods/academy/areavibe/

• St. Louis City Homicides data http://www.slmpd.org/images/2011_Homicide_Data_For_Website.pdf• 2010 Census Datahttp://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t#none

• St. Louis Crime Report http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports/html_84061828-6373-11df- a1f4-0017a4a78c22.html?appSession=100825937889208