predicting 2012 homicides in st. louis alan chang curt rozycki kris turner is 6833 spring 2012
TRANSCRIPT
PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS
Alan ChangCurt Rozycki
Kris Turner
IS 6833SPRING 2012
According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United
States in 2011.
An Index Score of 100 is equal to the national crime rate. This means that St. Louis had a crime rate of
more than five times the national average.
City Crime Risk Index1. St. Louis 5302. Atlanta 4843. Birmingham Alabama (tie) 3803. Orlando (tie) 3805. Detroit 369
Introduction
Collect geographic
data
Project Start
Analysis Regression
Model(Individual)
Run Multiple
Regression
Analysis the X and Y variable
Predict the number of
2012
Project Close
Determine which
models for 2011
Linear Regression model for
2012
Determine IndividualVariable
Analysis Approach Flow Chart
St. Louis City Map (79 different neighborhoods)
2011 St. Louis City Homicide Cases
Baden
Jeff
Vande
rlou
Well
s-Goo
dfell
ow
The G
reat
er V
ille
Hamilto
n Heig
hts
Waln
ut P
ark
Wes
t
Waln
ut P
ark
East
Mou
nt P
leasa
nt
Gravo
is Par
k
Colleg
e Hill
Tower
Gro
ve S
outh
Penro
se
Peabo
dy-D
arst
-Web
be
Mar
k Twain
Dutch
town
Caron
delet
Bento
n Par
k W
est
Wes
t End
Old Nor
th S
t. Lo
uis
Lewis
Place
Kingsw
ay E
ast
Fount
ain P
ark
Fairgr
ound
Downt
own
Wes
t
Acade
my
Other
s0
5
10
15
20
25
Basic DataBasic Data
Variable List
• Population
• Murder/capita
• Race (White/Africa American/Asian)
• Median Household Income
• Education Level (Complete High School Degree)
• Married
• Male/Female Ratio
• Have Children (under 18yrs)
• Median Home Value
2011 Homicide Victim Statistics
Regression Models
• Married/Median Household Income Model A• African American/Median Household
Income/Education Level/Married Model B• White Only/Median Household IncomeModel C• African American/Median Household
Income/Education LevelModel D• White Only/Median Household Income/Education
Level/Married Model E• Population/White Only/African American Only/Asian
OnlyModel F• African American Only/Population Density/Median
Household Income/Education LevelModel G
Total 16 different Models
Model Comparison (Regression Analysis)Model # R2 rank standard error rank p-value
1 0.104425 1.7999778562 0.515914 1.3939982623 0.0673 1.9089859914 0.509208 1.3941036365 0.098245 1.9025900136 0.56733 1.3270107337 0.512107 1.3994685498 0.491267 1.400555898 9.02547E-139 0.301945722
10 0.05007308211 0.62881435612 0.07567520713 0.84735099214 5.29485E-1415 0.775289 0.94302756616 0.784019 0.937279387
16 Models Regression Analysis16 Models
Regression Analysis
Best Model (Africa American + Murder/capita + Median Household Income + Education)
Estimate 79 different neighborhoods
Analysis 79 neighborhoods
2012 Total 194 Homicides Result of the 2012 Result of 2012 predict
Predictions by Neighborhood
Red -=> 5
Yellow -2~4
Green -<2
Top dangerous neighborhoods1. Fairground 2. Baden3. Jeff Vanderlou 4. Dutchtown
How to improve the prediction
• More updated yearly data by neighborhood
• More variables need provide (guns holders/drug users/genders)
• Other modeling method
Conclusion
The model presented can be used to provide information to decision makers, such as social worker, polices, and people who want buy a new house.
• http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/02/16/the-11-most-dangerous-cities
Reference
• St. Louis City Guide (Education level/Household income..) http://www.areavibes.com/st.+louis-mo/neighborhoods/academy/areavibe/
• St. Louis City Homicides data http://www.slmpd.org/images/2011_Homicide_Data_For_Website.pdf• 2010 Census Datahttp://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t#none
• St. Louis Crime Report http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports/html_84061828-6373-11df- a1f4-0017a4a78c22.html?appSession=100825937889208