powering new york state with wind, water, and the sun to ... · 3 the plan: convert new york...

Powering New York State with Wind, Water, and the Sun to Address Global Warming, Air Pollution,

and Energy Security

A. R. IngraffeaThe Dwight C. Baum ProfessorOf Civil and Environmental EngineeringCornell University, andPhysicians, Scientists and Engineers for

Healthy Energy, Inc.

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Outline of Presentation

• OUR New York State Energy Plan

• The how (who?), the why (New York?), and the what (renewable sources?) of our Plan

• What is the SOLUTIONS PROJECT and how did it arise

• What is in our current plan for New York State:– Type/number of renewable sources

– Health/climate impacts

– Job impacts

– Land use impacts

– Economics

• Energy security and independence

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The Plan: Convert New York State’s All-PurposeEnergy Infrastructure to One Derived Entirely from

Wind, Water, and Sunlight by 2050

Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, 2013

NYS’s 2050 all-purpose end-use power would be provided by:

Energy Technology% of 2050 energy demand met by

plant/device

Additional capacity needed (MW)

Number of new plants or devices needed

Onshore wind 10.0 18,391 3,678Offshore wind 40.0 58,924 11,784Wave device 0.5 1,405 1,872Geothermal plant 5.0 3,467 34Hydroelectric plant 5.5 915 1Tidal turbine 1.0 2,544 2,544Res. roof PV system 8.0 41,910 8,382,042Com/gov roof PV

system14.0 69,291 692,906

Solar PV plant 16.0 57,521 1,150

How Did This Plan Develop?

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From a set of engineers, scientists, social scientists, celebrities, and, of course, grad students. In 2012, they asked the question:

“If not shale gas in New York,then what?”

We did the research, themodeling, wrote the paper, on our nickel.

What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?

• Air pollution from fossil and biofuels causes 2.5 - 4 million premature deaths

worldwide annually.

• Climate change is real, and effects are becoming more evident.

• Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10-30 years.

• Increasing fossil energy use increases pollution, warming, and energy prices.

• Higher fossil energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability.

• Drastic problems require immediate solutions.

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How Much Time Do We Have?

6Source: Shindell et al.(2012). Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human

health and food security. Science 335: 183-189.

Danger Zone

Last Warning Zone

Dangerous Tipping Points Are Only 15 to 35 Years Into the Future

And Yet Here is the U.S. Energy Information Agency Forecast

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Why New York State?

• 8th largest economy in the world

• Both dense urban and rural environments

• NYC most energy efficient city in the United States

• Sufficiently large spatial scale for interconnected wind power

• Clear choice between renewables and the alleged “bridge” fuel of shale gas

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Very Strong “No” to Natural Gas

• Disastrous for global warming, because of

methane emissions

• 50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh

than wind

• High-volume hydraulic fracturing requires large

quantities of water, and has high levels of water

and air pollution

• For shale gas, clustered, multi-well pads

with long laterals with very high spatial

intensity and heavy industrial footprint

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Even without exports of LNG and conversion of autos to

methane, we will exhaust our methane supply before 2050

Why Not “Clean Coal” With Carbon Capture?

• 50 times more CO2 emissions per kWh

than wind

• 150 times more other air pollutant

emissions per kWh than wind

• Requires 25% more energy, thus 25%

more coal mining and transport and

traditional pollution than normal coal

• Carbon capture has yet to be proven,

and looks problematic on a commercial

scale

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Why Not Nuclear Power?

• 9 to 25 times more pollution per KWh than for wind, from mining, refining, and construction

• Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted down)

• High risk of nuclear weapons proliferation

• Unresolved high-level nuclear waste disposal issues

• Construction time too long: too late in the fight against climate change

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Wind Capacity Factors at 90-m Hub Height in NYS. Capacity factors of 30% or higher are the most cost-effective for wind energy development.

MYTH: It Is Not Windy Enough in NYS

to Make Wind Energy Practical

Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, 2013

NYS: 4-4.5 kWh/m2/day)

MYTH: It Is Not Sunny Enough in NYS

to Make Wind Energy Practical

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Our Energy Plan for New York State

Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, Feb. 2013

Outline of Presentation

• OUR New York State Energy Plan

• The how (who?), the why (New York?), and the what (renewable sources?) of our Plan

• What is the SOLUTIONS PROJECT and how did it arise

• What is in the current plan for New York State:– Type/number of renewable sources

– Health/climate impacts

– Job impacts

– Land use impacts

– Economics

• Energy security and independence

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One Thing Leads to Another, And…

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Prof. Mark Jacobson

Prof. Bob Howarth

Dr. Jannette Barth

Mark Ruffalo

Josh Fox

And a few others…

The SOLUTIONS PROJECTthesolutionsproject.org

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Device/Plant Counts for Renewable Sources of Energy in New York State

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Energy Technology% of 2050 energy demand met by

plant/device

Capacity needed (GW)

Number of new plants or devices needed

Onshore wind 10.0 18.4 3,678Offshore wind 40.0 58.9 11,784Wave device 0.5 1.4 1,872Geothermal plant 5.0 3.5 34Hydroelectric plant 5.5 0.9 1Tidal turbine 1.0 2.5 2,544Res. roof PV system 8.0 41.9 8,382,042Com/gov roof PV

system14.0 69.3 692,906

Solar PV plant 16.0 57.5 1,150

TOTAL: 254 GW

Current All-Purpose Power Demand in NYS = 64 GW2050 All-Purpose WWS Power Demand = 60 GW

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Midlandpower.com

Heat pump water heater

Efficiency Gains in the Home:Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water

Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater

Conservpros.com

Adaptivebuilders.com

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/12/15/nyregion/air-480.jpg

Fossil-fuel air pollution causes 4,000 deaths per year in New York State.

Deaths and other health costs = $33 billion per year in New York State.

Aerosol particle pollution in NYC during winter 2009

(values above 7 ug/m3 increase mortality the most)

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And…

NYS’s own emission

decreases would reduce

2050 U.S. climate costs

by $3.2 billion/yr.

Conversion to Renewable Energy will Create Jobs in New York State

Info.ussolarinstitute.com

Average number of jobs in the US per million dollars spent on energy production:

3.7 for fossil fuels9.5 for wind9.7 for solar

Source: “The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy”, U. Mass, Dept. of Economics & Policy Research Institute, June 2009. 25

Estimated Job Creation in New York State with SOLUTIONS PLAN

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Energy TechnologyConstruction

Jobs

Operations

Jobs

Onshore wind 1,832 2,745

Offshore wind 10,148 37,128

Wave device 474 3,325

Geothermal plant 1,214 411

Hydroelectric plant 275 275

Tidal turbine 752 5,770

Res. roof PV system 62,514 19,206

Com/gov roof PV system110,213 22,259

Solar PV plant 51,510 16,808

TOTALS 238,931 107,926

Footprint of New Renewable Energy Sources for SOLUTIONS PLAN in New York State

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Energy

Technology

Footprint area

(km2)

Spacing area

(km2)

Footprint area

(% of state)

Spacing area

(% of state)

Onshore wind 0.05 1635.06 0.000038% 1.3371%

Offshore wind 0.15 5238.64 0.000121% 4.2840%

Wave device 0.98 46.82 0.000804% 0.0383%

Geothermal

plant 11.90 0.00 0.009732% 0.0000%

Hydroelectric

plant 459.83 0.00 0.376038% 0.0000%

Tidal turbine 0.73 9.42 0.000599% 0.0077%

Res. roof PV

system 313.50 0.00 0.256375% 0.0000%

Com/gov roof

PV system 518.32 0.00 0.423867% 0.0000%

Solar PV plant 430.27 0.00 0.351868% 0.0000%

Total 1.42% 5.67%

New land = Land - Roof - Offshore 0.86% 1.34%

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MYTH: WWS Take Too Much Space

Estimated Cost of Renewable Energy Sources for SOLUTIONS PLAN in

New York State

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Energy Technology Cost (billion)

Onshore wind $ 25.7

Offshore wind $ 176.7

Wave device $ 4.2

Geothermal plant $ 5.9

Hydroelectric plant $ 1.8

Tidal turbine $ 7.6

Res. roof PV system $ 73.3

Com/gov roof PV system $ 103.9

Solar PV plant $ 86.2

TOTAL $ 485.6

Compared to what?

50,000 shale gas wells, alone, will cost $250B

What choice do we really have?

Climate change will dominate all costs

Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)

Energy Technology 2005-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7 ≤4Wind offshore 10-17 8-13Wave >>11 4-11Geothermal 4-7 4-7Hydroelectric 4 4Solar PV 9-13 5-7Tidal >>11 5-7

Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5)=12 8-9 (+5.5) =13.5-14.5

Delucchi & Jacobson (2010)

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Our Plan Stabilizes and Reduces Energy Costs Compared to Fossil Fuels

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Outline of Presentation

• OUR New York State Energy Plan

• The how (who?), the why (New York?), and the what (renewable sources?) of our Plan

• What is the SOLUTIONS PROJECT and how did it arise

• What is in the current plan for New York State:– Type/number of renewable sources

– Health/climate impacts

– Job impacts

– Land use impacts

– Economics

• Energy security and independence

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The Plan: Convert New York State’s All-Purpose Energy Infrastructure to One Derived Entirely from

Wind, Water, and Sunlight by 2050

Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, 2013

NYS’s 2050 all-purpose end-use power would be provided by:

Energy Technology% of 2050 energy demand met by

plant/device

Additional capacity needed (MW)

Number of new plants or devices needed

Onshore wind 10.0 18,391 3,678Offshore wind 40.0 58,924 11,784Wave device 0.5 1,405 1,872Geothermal plant 5.0 3,467 34Hydroelectric plant 5.5 915 1Tidal turbine 1.0 2,544 2,544Res. roof PV system 8.0 41,910 8,382,042Com/gov roof PV

system14.0 69,291 692,906

Solar PV plant 16.0 57,521 1,150

Or, we can have 50,000 to 100,000 Marcellus and Utica Wells;• 8,000 to 16,000 pads;• 500 to 1,000 compressor stations;• Thousands of miles of new pipelines;• Thousands of incidents of well water contamination;• Increase New York’s contribution to global warming;• Continue illness and morbidity from pollution;• Sequester forever twice the tonnage of the US Navy in non-recyclable steel casing.

We Own the Wind, the Sun, the Water:

Their Fuel Cost is Zero.

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Wind, water and solar energy will provide a stable, renewable source of electric power not subject to the same fuel supply

limitations as fossil fuels and nuclear power. Due to the eventual depletion of coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium resources, their

prices will continue to rise.

We Own the Wind, the Sun, the Water: They

Make Us Energy Secure and Independent

Energy Security and Independence

Our Plan: Summary

• Electrify transportation and commercial and domestic heating – greater efficiencies lower total energy consumption (37%).

• Choose most environmentally benign generation technologies (50% wind, 36% photovoltaic, and 14% geothermal, hydro, tidal, and waves).

• Rely on technologies that are commercially available today.

• Use a variety of energy storage techniques, and approaches for balancing demand to production.

• Use hydrogen (generated from excess electricity production) for industrial process energy and as a transportation fuel for airplanes, long-distance trucks, and ships.

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• Is cost effective ($486 billion price tag is paid off entirely in health-cost and climate-cost savings of $36 billion per year over 14 years)

• Creates large number of net new jobs in New York.

• Stabilizes energy prices, and greatly improves energy security; reduces energy prices on the time scale of 10 or more years into the future. Nobody owns the sun/wind/water.

• Hugely decreases air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from New York.

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Our Plan: Summary

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Thank You for Attendingand Participating Today

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Direct Societal Benefits from the SOLUTIONS PLAN for New York State

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• Reduces air pollution

• Fights climate change

• Prevents water and land contamination

• Reduces health costs

• Improves national security

• Sets an example for other states

Matching power generation to demand:

• Interconnect wind turbines over a large enough area to even out system-wide power generation

• Use hydro-power and stored solar power to help balance demand

• Oversize generation capacity, and produce hydrogen with excess (for feeding back into the grid through fuel cells, and for industrial process heat energy)

• Use demand-response management to shift demand to match power generation

• Store energy through pumped hydroelectric, compressed air, flywheels, and batteries (particularly in electric vehicles)

• Store heat energy seasonally through geothermal ground exchange.

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“No” to liquid biofuels-- Greenhouse gas footprint, intensity of land use, conflicts with food production, and water and air pollution all too large

-- A limited role for direct combustion of biomass to cogenerate heat & electricity

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For Most If Not All Related Service-Sector Industries, Jobs Are Replaced in Kind

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History of Installed Wind Capacity in the U.S.

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cu

mu

lati

ve In

stal

led

Win

d C

apac

ity,

GW

Year

http://www.gwec.net/publications/global-wind-report-2/global-wind-report-2013/

A Near-Term Projection of Wind Capacity in the U.S.

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y = 0.091x3 - 545.47x2 + 1E+06x - 7E+08R² = 0.9989

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Cu

mu

lati

ve In

stal

led

Win

d C

apac

ity,

GW

Year

The equivalent of 240 1-GW nuclear power plants (assuming a capacity factor of 33% from 750 new

GW of capacity) in the next 6 years.

History of Installed Commercial Solar Capacity in the U.S.

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y = 0.1167x3 - 703.02x2 + 1E+06x - 9E+08R² = 0.9992

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cu

mu

lati

ve U

.S. P

V C

apac

ity,

GW

Year

A Near-Term Projection of Commercial Solar Capacity in the U.S.

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y = 0.1167x3 - 703.02x2 + 1E+06x - 9E+08R² = 0.9992

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Cu

mu

lati

ve U

.S. P

V C

apac

ity,

GW

Year

The equivalent of 27 1-GW nuclear power plants in the U.S. (assuming a capacity factor of 15% from 180 new GW of capacity) in the next

6 years.

“No” to liquid biofuels-- Greenhouse gas footprint, intensity of land use, conflicts with food production, and water and air pollution all too large

-- A limited role for direct combustion of biomass to cogenerate heat & electricity

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