pockets of poverty

Pockets of Rural Poverty:

Seeing Beyond the Census Data

Josh King, Land of Sky Regional Council

Karyl Fuller, Isothermal Planning &

Development Commission

Introduction

O Isothermal Planning & Development Commission (IPDC)

O Council of Government representing four counties in North Carolina

O They are Cleveland, McDowell, Polk and Rutherford. All but Cleveland are within ARC

O IPDC provides a variety of services to their counties including:

O Workforce Development

O Area Agency on Aging

O Grant Services

O Planning Services including staffing Isothermal RPO

Introduction, Cont.

O Disproportionate development patterns

leaving extreme income disparity

O Fast and furious second home growth in the

2000’s

O Declining manufacturing employment

O Better ways to display and track locally

available knowledge for future planners

O Environmental Justice Compliance tool

Environmental Justice Guides

O Income

O Areas where the Median Household Income

Less than 50% of County’s HUD Average

O Minority

O Areas where %Minority is 10 points higher

than County Average or Greater than 50%

Map

Problem

O Data Available

O Largely Census

O Economic Data is No Longer Collected during the Regular Census

O Rather, American Community Survey

O Advantages

O ”New “ Data Available Every Year

O Disadvantages

O Depending on Geography, Only Data Available is 5-Year Averages

O Sample Size is not 1 in 6 household like the long form. Each year, ACS attempts to sample 1 in 35-40 households. Even over 5 years, sample 1-12.5 households

Problem O Size of Geography has

expanded O In 2000—Block Groups

represented 600 people

O Since 2010— Block Groups represented 1,500 people. Census Tracts represented average of 4,000.

O Because of ACS sampling, the data is not reliable at BG level

O Census Tracts provide a more reliable sample

Problem, Cont. O Census Tracts are

larger O The smallest tract in

4-county region is ~1000 acres in McDowell County. The largest is ~100,000 acres in Rutherford County

O Variation is hidden with the larger area and population size. Fewer Census Tract meet the threshold

Kingstown Example

O Town Facts

O 89.1% Black

O 2010 Median Household Income: $31,111

O Total Population: 681

O Census Tract Facts

O 16.9% Black

O 2010 MHHI: $45,250

O Total Population: 6,855

Available Data

O IPDC provides Grant Services to all four

counties including Housing, Urgent Repair,

Infrastructure and Economic Development.

We also provide Weatherization Services to

all 4 counties.

O Most of the Grants require Income

Verification, usually low to moderate income

O Weatherization has income limits, as well.

Limitations/Issues

O Grant recipients’ addresses are posted.

O However, Weatherization is not.

O Brought in Grant data from 2005-

O Grant recipients usually have liens on their house for an extended period.

O Small pool of applicants, but have parcel IDs

O Weatherization recipients

O Currently, only 1 Year of data used

O Used Addresses and Geo-coded them Using Google Maps

O Solution-To use Spatial Analysis tools to both obscure the individual addresses and highlight the clusters

Process

O Grant Recipients

O All data was converted to point data

O Compiled/Attributed with Source

O Weatherization Data

O Addresses Only

O Geo-coded Using Google data

O Any data with Accuracy rating less than 8

O Screened, Updated

O Re-Geocoded

Process, Cont.

O Weatherization & Grant Services were

combined

O Using Spatial Analyst, various cell sizes and

search radius were explored.

O Cell size of 2500 ft and Search radius of 2

miles seemed sufficient

Results

Final Map

Comparison

Results Map

Overlay Map Results Map

Final Thoughts

O Related Products—Highlights for Marketing/Advertising

O Race—Use 2010 Block Group data

O Bring in More Weatherization data

O Technique is scalable to varying degrees

O Continuous search for more income qualified data

O Aging data can also be used to test against Census Age data