pittsburgh and allegheny county: portrait of an aging society (richard schulz)
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8/7/2019 Pittsburgh and Allegheny County: Portrait of an Aging Society (Richard Schulz)
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This Presentation
s
Regional Demographic Change in SW PAs Concentration of Elderly and NORCs
s Elderly and Race
s Economic Impact of Elderlys Elderly Migration
s Local Aging Trends and Projections
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s
Regional net out-migration peaked at over 50,000per year in 1983.s Out-Migration was very age Selective: younger left,
older stayed.s
Region soon became one of the oldest regions inthe country.s Workforce migration left region skill-deficient for
new/emerging industries.
s Region still has a unique older demographicaffecting current population trends.
Demographic Impact and Legacy
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Annual Net Migration Rates by Major Age GroupPittsburgh Region 1980-2000
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
20-39
40-65
65+
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Natural Population Change:Births Minus Deaths (2000-2006) as % of Population
Deaths exceed births for Pittsburgh
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s Concentration of elderly uneven within regions Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs)
throughout region
s Specific sub-regions highly concentrated elderly population
s Public Finance issues: Reliance on property taxes/impact on fixed income households
Service needs of elderly population
Location of public services for elderly
Concentration of Elderly Within Region
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Concentration of Elderly Population (Age 65+)Southwestern Pennsylvania Municipalities, 2000
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Highest Elderly Concentrations (Age 65 and over)Allegheny County Municipalities, 2000
Municipality TotalPopulation
Age 65 +
Sewickley Heights 981 277 28.2%
Braddock Hills 1,998 563 28.2%
South Versailles 338 91 26.9%
Versailles 1,730 461 26.6%
Cheswick 1,899 506 26.6%
Wilkins 6,917 1,775 25.7%
Bridgeville 5,341 1,368 25.6%
Collier 5,265 1,332 25.3%
Oakmont 6,911 1,737 25.1%
Whitehall 14,444 3,512 24.3%
White Oak 8,474 2,057 24.3%Churchill 3,566 862 24.2%
Clairton 8,491 2,039 24.0%
Port Vue 4,228 1,013 24.0%
Allegheny County 1,281,666 228,285 17.8%
US 281,421,906 34,978,972 12.4%
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Elderly and Race
sDifferential disability status by racesElderly poverty concentrated by race
sProjections differ by race
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Disability Status by Race, 2000
US Pennsylvania Allegheny City of Pittsburgh
White Black White Black White Black White Black
Any Disability 37.5% 50.5% 36.0% 48.5% 35.0% 49.6% 39.7% 51.5%
PhysicalDisability 25.1% 33.8% 23.1% 32.1% 22.4% 33.4% 25.9% 35.4%
Self CareDisability
7.6% 13.1% 7.1% 12.0% 7.2% 10.6% 8.4% 11.3%
Go OutsideDisability
16.5% 26.0% 16.7% 25.0% 17.2% 24.2% 19.5% 25.2%
EmploymentDisability
3.4% 6.3% 2.9% 5.1% 2.6% 5.5% 2.9% 6.0%
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Poverty Status by Gender Age and RaceAllegheny County vs. US, 2006
Men WomenWhitePopulation
UnitedStates
Allegheny
County
UnitedStates
Allegheny
County
55 to 64 years 6.7% 5.5% 8.1% 7.3%65 to 74 years 5.5% 4.2% 8.3% 6.7%
75 years andover
6.5% 6.9% 11.9% 13.1%
BlackPopulation
55 to 64 years 16.0% 16.1% 19.1% 26.1%
65 to 74 years 15.4% 16.4% 21.7% 19.0%
75 years and
over
17.2% 6.8% 27.4% 16.4%
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Elderly Return Migration
s Elderly migration flows both in and out of regions Impact on local service demand
s Factor in creating Naturally Occurring RetirementCommunities (NORCs)
s Elderly return migrants Older
More likely to be widowed
More disabled
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Pittsburgh to Florida Elderly Migration Flows:1995-2000
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Age Distribution of Migration Flows
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Economic Impact of Elderly
s Retirement income and medical costs funded nationallyrepresent income gain for region.
s Pittsburgh Region: $6.2 billion in Retirement/DisabilityBenefits(2005)
s Medicare Benefits in Pittsburgh Region: $4.6 billion (2005)
s Together $10.6 billion or roughly 10% of regional GrossRegional Product.
s Employment and investment impact concentrated inspecific industries.
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Allegheny County Elderly Forecast
s Elderly (Age 65+) Population peaked in 1995s Decline Through 2012
s Older Cohorts will show same pattern
75+ population peaking now 85+ growing now/ peak around 2014
s Allegheny County in 1995: 18.5% Age 65 andover. Where US is projected to be in 2026.
s Health impacts on future elderly.
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Allegheny County Elderly Population (Age 65+) 1990-2020
First Peak in 1995
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Conclusions
Mid 1990s Elderly Concentration in Pittsburghregion (18.5%) where nation will be around 2026.
Forecasted population changes will differ acrossage cohorts - impacting service demand anddelivery.
Local concentrations of elderly can be far above orbelow regional/national averages.
Post baby boom changes will also be significant.
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