operational decision elaboration method as a foresight method: a corporate approach
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Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight
Method: a Corporate Approach
Pierre Memheld
Senior Advisor
Inside.Co, France
Connect via LinkedIn
Scientific Track
Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach
Abstract
The corporate intelligence field does not have the same characteristics, or the same stakes,
than the political or the military intelligence one. But rightly, its characteristics allow to us
tactical analysis to forecast what would happen. Competitors, companies, have known
technologies, capacities, finances, resources and pre-defined markets. In these conditions,
they have a limited number of “options”. “Operational decision elaboration method” uses
tactical intelligence to determine what an “adversary” is able to do when confronted to
another “party”: what are its equipments, troops, intentions, organizational and operational
behaviors. Thus, a military strategist has constraints, imperatives, objectives, limited means
and variables that will create an uncertainty for the fulfillment of the mission. This is where
intelligence plays a role. The article would stress how this method allow to forecast
companies decisions, as their variables and options are less diversified than in the military
field. This method would not allow to forecast precisely every decision but limit the number
of factors to monitor: the consequence is a better ability to orientate corporate intelligence
means, themselves more limited than in the military field. In this case, analysis takes an even
more important place.
Key topics
competitive intelligence methods origin, use, and limits in a specific industrial sector operational decision elaboration method and planning process to anticipate evolutions complex competitive intelligence analysis and constraints to use the method/process
Speaker profile
Pierre Memheld: Compliance & Due Diligence Advisor at InsideCo, speaker at the
International Relations School - University of Strasbourg (Institut de Traducteurs,
d'Interprètes et de Relations Internationales), MBA from ESSEC. Pierre has more than 15
years of experience in market & competitive intelligence in utility, energy, transport or
aerospace industries in Europe, India and Middle East.
OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ELABORATION METHOD AS A
FORESIGHT METHOD: AFORESIGHT METHOD: A CORPORATE APPROACH
7th International CompetitiveIntelligence Conference 2015
Anticipate our “enemies” / competitors moves
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Confrontation of means and patterns
“Predicition is very difficult, especially about h f ”the future”Niels Bohr
I. ODEM PresentationII. Competitive IntelligenceII. Competitive IntelligenceIII. Corporate DoctrinesIV. Early WarningV AssessmentsV. Assessments
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I. ODEM PRESENTATION
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I. ODEM Presentation
• The Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield
Enemy Forces: Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Timeline, Equipment, IntentionTerrain: Obstacles, Avenue of Approach, Key points, Observations, Cover, pp , y p , ,Weather: Temperatures, Humidity, Wind, Precipiation, Sunrise, Sunset, MoonFriendy Forces: Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Timeline, EquipmentNon Enemy Forces: Population, NGO, Hospital, Administration, Key Leaders
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Mission: Who, What, When, Where, With Who, Why, Later
I. ODEM Presentation
• Intelligence & Environment
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I. ODEM Presentation
• Confrontation of “courses of action”
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I. ODEM Presentation
DE QUOI S’AGIT‐QUOI? La lettre de la mission. Quels effets dois‐je
Orientation initiale
ANALYSE SYNTHESEPHASE 1
DEVELOPPEMENTPHASE 2
PHASE PREALABLEMise en ambiance
COMMENT? DéveloppementDE QUOI S AGIT
IL? Contexte généralQuel est le style général de mon action ? Les facteurs
Conclusions partielles→ Impératifs→ Reformulation
mission→ Effet majeur 1°POURQUOI? L’esprit de la
mission. Quels effets dois je réaliser? Quelles sont les composantes de la mission (≅tâches)? Quelles sont les contraintes?
Développement modes d’action amis
Analyse fonctionnelle des MA
COMPARAISON DES MA (critères) →avantages &
é d déLes facteurs essentiels immédiatement perceptibles (mission, contraintes, terrain, délais, RAPFOR)?
approchePOURQUOI? L esprit de la mission. Quelle place prend ma mission dans la manœuvre du chef? Quel est l’effet majeur du chef
MODE D’ACTION RETENU
inconvénients Réunion de décision
délais, RAPFOR)? En quoi cela sort‐il évidemment de la norme?
EFFET MAJEUR
INTENTIONEffet majeur & idée
d
Conclusions partielles terrain/délais : rythme & tempo, élongations, front/profondeur, etc. Terrain clé
OÙ? Analyse du terrain physique et humain
QUAND? Analyse des délais
Réunion de synthèseOrientation initiale?
RETENU
Conception ou ordre
de manœuvreConditions d’exécution
QUAND? Analyse des délais d’exécution de la mission
Conclusions partielles RAPFOR quantitatifs
AVEC QUOI ? Forces amiesAdaptation de mes unités aux conditions de la mission? Quelles
ité t é t ll
CONFRONTATION DES MA & ME →
Ebauche l d
ordre d’opération
et qualitatifsCentres de gravité ami & ennemiCapacités, besoins & vulnérabilités critiques
CONTRE QUOI ? Forces adversesQuel est mon ennemi? Quel sont sa
unités peuvent exécuter quelles tâches?
COMMENT? Développement modes d’action ennemisFace à mon action, dans le but de
risques & opportunités
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plan de manœuvre
critiquesmission, son objectif immédiat et ultérieur? Quel devrait être son dispositif de départ?
Face à mon action, dans le but de remplir sa mission, l’eni pourrait soit…, soit…
II. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
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II. Competitive Intelligence
• Intelligence CycleCustomerProduction
A tA l AssessmentAnalyze
PlanExploit
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Collect
II. Competitive Intelligence
• Global Battlefield
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II. Competitive Intelligence
• Charts & Networks
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II. Competitive Intelligence
• PEST‐EL
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II. Competitive Intelligence
• Value Chain Analysis
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II. Competitive Intelligence
• Benchmarking
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II. Competitive Intelligence
• Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
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III. CORPORATE DOCTRINES
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III. Corporate Doctrines
• Markets Structures
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III. Corporate Doctrines
• Industries Patterns
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III. Corporate Doctrines
• Companies Behaviors
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III. Corporate Doctrines
• Crowd Sourcing / Communication Obligation
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III. Corporate Doctrines
• Human Ressources Standardization
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III. Corporate Doctrines
• Analysis Methods Standardization
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IV. EARLY WARNING
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IV. Early Warning
• Hypothesis to Indicatorsl f f di
consumer surveys
t t k ti
General Info Req --- > Specific Reqs --- > Indicators
Key Questionproduct creation
test marketing
prod. line changes
t t
y Qmarket research
product design
promotionnew contracts
new promotional offersnew products
l h
advertising
product promotion
Incr’d plant capacity Equipment buys
Specific equipment 2
Specific equipment 1launch
New hiresSkill set 1
Skill set 2Production
Tech
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Financing
IV. Early Warning
• Intelligence to Plan
Explore DevelopStrategy
Test Plans Implement & EvaluateStrategy & Evaluate
Key Force Analysis
Scenario Development
Influence Planning
Early Warning& Indicator
Test Plans &Assumptions
War Game or Competitive
Align for Rapid Execution
Monitor Indicators &Development
Environment & Key Leader
& Indicator Trees
Competitor& Technical
CompetitiveRole Play
Tactical & Event Intelligence
Probability/ImpactAnalysis
Indicators & Adjust Plans
Intelligence intelligenceg
Action/Contingency Planning
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Define Elements Build the Plan Test the Plan Implement the PlanWith the authorization of the Bennion Group
IV. Early Warning
• The Over‐all ProcessPhrase key business issues as questions
Create supporting questions for each key issue
Decompose to “observables” (on/off; thresholds)
Build an indicator tree
Plan intelligence collection – ID observables’sources, and channels
to tap each source
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to tap each sourceWith the authorization of the Bennion Group
IV. Early Warning
• War Rooms / Games
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V. ASSESSMENTS
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V. Assessments
Is “surprise” due to an absence of “indicators” or a lack of monitoring/analysis?lack of monitoring/analysis?
Decisions Informations
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V. AssessmentsScenario AnalysisStrategic Planning
ACHACHDecision Profiling
Text MiningMappingSNA
DecisionBrainstormingStrategic Simulation
SNADistribution
ContextConception
Risks MappingIndustries Paterns
Environment
Competitors
BenchmarkingTrend AnalysisPEST EL
Organizational BehaviorValue Chain Analysis
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PEST‐ELPatents, Publications
Financial AnalysisSWOT
V. Assessments
• Intelligence Integration & Sharing
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V. Assessments
• From intelligence to decisionMarke
tEnvironment
Contraints Decision
Obj ti C tiObjectives
Competitors Analyze Analyze
Context Means Plans RETEX
Decision Concepts Scenarii Synthesis Execution
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Decision Concepts Scenarii Synthesis Execution
Conclusion
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Final Quote
“Your task is not to foresee the ffuture, but to enable it.”Antoine de Saint Exupéry
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Questions & Answers
Pierre Memheld – Senior Advisor – pmemheld@insideco.net
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