nuclear weapons today a presentation prepared by the medical association for prevention of war

Nuclear Weapons Today

A presentation prepared by the Medical Association for Prevention

of War

MAPW (Australia) Nuclear Weapons 2006

The WeaponsThe EffectsThe LocationsThe International

Response

Nuclear Weapons Today

The Basics

Nuclear Weapon Cores

Fission weapons require “fissile isotopes” Most important - plutonium-239 (Pu-239)

and uranium-235 (U-235)Some weapons are made from both

isotopesBasic nuclear weapons rely on nuclear

fission chain reaction to produce large amount of energy in a very short time

Nuclear Explosions

Explosive power measured by the mass equivalent of TNT:A 1 kiloton bomb has an explosive yield

equivalent to 1000 tons of TNTA 1 megaton bomb has an explosive yield

equivalent to 1,000,000 tons of TNT

Plutonium

Weapons grade - produced in military plutonium-production reactors specifically for nuclear weapons use

Reactor grade - produced in all nuclear-power reactorsFor electricity production, but can be used to

make weapons

Plutonium

Powerful nuclear explosive

Highly radioactive and toxic

The half-life of plutonium is 24,500 years

Remains hazardous for 250,000 years

Uranium

Naturally occurring uranium contains 0.7% U-235

Weapons use highly-enriched uranium (HEU) - proportion of U-235 increased

Weapons grade - usually enriched to greater than 90%, but lower percentages still useable

Separated Plutonium Stocks

Country Military plutonium

Civil plutonium

Russia 95 tonnes 88 tonnesUS 47 tonnes 45 tonnesUK 3.2 tonnes 96.2 tonnesFrance 5 tonnes 78.6 tonnesChina 4.8 tonnes -Israel 0.6 tonnes -India 0.4 tonnes 1.5 tonnesJapan - 5.4 tonnesGermany - 12.5 tonnes

Estimated HEU stocks

Country Military highly-enriched uranium

Russia 1070 tonnes

US 575 tonnes

UK 21.9 tonnes

France 29 tonnes

China 20 tonnes

Pakistan 1.1 tonnes

Core requirements

A 20 kt nuclear bomb requires: 4-5 kg of weapons grade plutonium OR10-15 kg of weapons grade uranium

A 1kt nuclear weapon could be made with: 1 kg of weapons-grade plutonium OR 2.5 kg of weapons-grade uranium

The fission process

Nucleus of U-235 or Pu-329 captures a neutron - U-236, Pu-240 nucleus formed.

U-236, Pu-240 very unstable, rapidly split into two (fission)

Neutrons and a large burst of energy are emittedComplete fissioning of 1 gram of U-235

releases 23,000 kilowatt-hours of heat

The fission process

Critical mass

Each nucleus undergoing fission must produce a neutron that splits another nucleus

Critical mass - the minimum mass of fissile material that can sustain a nuclear fission chain reaction

Sphere is optimum shape

Nuclear explosions

Nuclear explosions occur at super-critical masses

Basic weapons contain fissile material less than critical mass.

Within half a millionth of a second:Temperatures - hundreds of millions degrees

centigrade, and pressures - millions of atmospheres, build up

Fusion

Isotopes of hydrogen - deuterium and tritium Extremely high temperatures required for

reaction to occur Require a fission bomb to provide energy to

initiate reaction Used mainly to ‘boost’ fission bombs - increase

fission rate by providing more high energy neutrons

Main Components Of Nuclear Weapons

High quality, high purity conventional high explosives and reliable detonators

Electronic circuitsA tamper and neutron reflectorA core of fissile materialA neutron source

Detonation techniques

Gun technique Only used with HEUMass of sub-critical HEU fired at another -

sum of two masses supercriticalSimple techniqueLong assembly timeHiroshima bomb

Implosion technique1/10 the assembly time of the gun techniqueHEU or plutonium can be usedFissile core surrounded by conventional

high explosives

Implosion techniqueExplosives detonate and uniformly

compress the core and increase its density, making it super-critical

Neutrons also fired into fissile material to encourage fission chain reaction

Delivery Systems:

Gravity Bombs Ballistic Missile

Warheads Cruise Missile

Warheads

Other Forms:- Anti-ballistic Missiles- Anti-submarine Warfare

Tactical vs. Strategic Nuclear Weapons

Tactical: US and Russian definition - less than

500 km rangeStrategic:

Intended to be detonated in other countries, i.e. intercontinental delivery

Launch on Warning (LoW)

Retaliation with nuclear weapons to a perceived nuclear attack by another state

Response to a warning (by radar or satellite sensors) of attacking missiles

Decision must be made in minutes

The Effects of Nuclear Weapons

August 6, 1945

US detonated a 15 kiloton bomb over Hiroshima, Japan

Deaths – 66,000 Injuries - 69,000

August 9, 1945

US detonated a 21 kiloton bomb over Nagasaki, Japan

Deaths - 73,884 Injuries - 74,909 6.7 million square metres leveled

Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Ground temperatures reached about 7,000 degrees

“Black rain” containing radioactive fallout poured down for hours after the explosions

One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

Flash Intense flash of light, a thousand times

brighter than lightningPulse of heat radiation - sets fire to

combustible material 14 km awayPulse of X-rays, lethal within 3 km

FireballForms after the ‘flash’ and rises in the airCan permanently blind people up to 80 km

awayAll exposed body parts burned deeply within

10 kmSuperficial burns within fifteen km

BlastPowerful blast wave - starts immediately,

but travels slower than the flash and fireball

Destroys everything within 2 km100% fatalities within 3 km50% of people killed within 8 kmMajor damage to buildings within 14 km,

windows broken out to 20-30 km

BlastHurricane force winds, first outwards, then

inwardsTornado force winds (six hundred km/hr),

within four km - can drive glass splinters into people

People picked up and hurled into any object strong enough to be still standing

FirestormFires started by the first flash coalesceCause sufficient updraft to form their

own wind, which blows inwards from all sides - increasing the intensity of the fire

Fire uses all available oxygen “People caught in the open would melt,

those in shelters would probably be baked”

Acute Radiation ExposureCentral nervous system dysfunctionGastrointestinal damageUncontrolled internal bleedingBleeding from gums or within the skinMassive infectionsDeath

Delayed RadiationEverything in vicinity of explosion radioactiveHiroshima - radioactive rainstorms1/3 of original fissile material not destroyedWidespread contamination Increased risk of developing cancer for

survivors

In case of a nuclear bomb - don’t bother to call your doctorNo significant medical response possibleHospitals destroyed, most health care

providers killed

Medical response barriersNo electricity, water or telephone serviceNo drugs, sterile IV solutions, bandages Impassable roads, inaccessible areasOverloading of emergency/ hospital

services in surrounding areasRescuers risk radiation exposure

Medical problems: one city of 1-2 millionFifty times more severe burns than burn beds

in North AmericaA year’s supply of blood for transfusions

needed immediatelyBottlenecks and delays due to the need for

radioactivity assaysMost of injured die, even from easily treated

injuries

One-Megaton Bomb Detonated At Ground-Level

Enormous crater - 400 metres wide and 70 metres deep

Major fallout of radioactive particulates, potentially lethal hundreds of kilometres downwind

Area of blast damage and immediate deaths about one half of air detonation scenario

More deaths days to weeks after bomb due to radiation sickness from fallout

Effect Of Nuclear War

Many nuclear bombs explodedRadioactive contamination of whole

continentsPermanent large scale damage to

environmentNuclear winter

Nuclear Winter

Airborne contaminants absorb and reflect the sun’s rays

Results in an extended period of semi-darkness and freezing temperatures

Potentially generated from less than 100 detonations

The view of the Earth from Apollo 10 (18 May 1969) from 26,000 nautical miles on its journey to the Moon

Nuclear Winter

This is what the world would look like after a large-scale nuclear holocaust

Nuclear Winter

Nuclear winter could occur with detonation of 100 nuclear warheads over major cities

30,000 weapons currently, deployed – 90% reduction of deployed weapons could still cause nuclear winter

This puts nuclear weapons are in a league of their own

Nuclear Winter

Nuclear Weapons Testing

Nuclear Testing

2,058 nuclear test explosions by 8 countries:

United States – 1,030 Russia (USSR) - 715 France - 210 United Kingdom - 45 China - 45 India - 7 Pakistan - 6

Effects of Nuclear Testing

•2.4 million people estimated to die from cancer as a result of nuclear testing

•Tests sites around the world contaminated

Nuclear Terrorism

Only 20kg of HEU and 10kg of Plutonium needed

Possibilities:

-primitive nuclear explosive

-attacking a nuclear-power reactor

-nuclear weapon

-transport attack

-“dirty bomb”

Nuclear Material Availability

Fissile materials are not controlled or accounted for effectively

At least 40 kg of weapons-usable uranium and plutonium has been stolen

Only 1/3 of an estimated 600 tonnes of weapons-usable material in the former USSR has been secured

Terrorism And Nuclear Energy

The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that current nuclear power plants are structurally vulnerable against the Sept. 11 attack scenario

Over 120 documented cases of nuclear sabotage

Credible threats reported by security agencies

States Possessing Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Weapons -Declared States

USA 4530 780 5000 10,310

Russia 3800 3400 11000 18,200

France 290 60 350

China 400 150 550

Britain 185 15 200

Strategic Tactical Reserve Total

Nuclear Weapons - De Facto States

Israel – 75-200

India – 40-50

Pakistan – 25-50

Nth Korea - ?

Nuclear Weapons

Numbers by Region

2000400060008000

1000012000140001600018000

30,000 Nuclear Weapons

USEuropeMiddle EastAsia

Arms Control and Disarmament

Multilateral (3 or more states) Bilateral (2 states)Unilateral (1 state)In existence: proliferation, testing,

geographic limitations Not in existence: complete

disarmament, fissile material control

International Law and Nuclear Weapons

Key Terms

Disarmament Decrease in

number ‘General and

Complete’ Weapon Specific Abolition

Arms Control Limitations ‘General and

Complete’ Weapon Specific Non-Proliferation

Vertical Horizontal

Main roles:ForumFacilitatingVerification & EnforcementEducationUN Treaties: Antarctica Treaty, PTBT, Outer Space Treaty, NPT,

Sea-Bed Treaty, NWFZs, CTBT

United Nations

Established by UN in 1957 Nuclear non-proliferation Nuclear Science and Technology in

Sustainable Development Nuclear Safety and Security

Conference on Disarmament

UN BodyEstablished in 197966 countries are membersAgreement by ConsensusBased in Geneva, Switzerland

Major Treaties (Bilateral & Multilateral)

INF START NPT CTBT

Missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km World-first in disarmament talks:

a) Nuclear arsenal reduction

b) Category of weapon eliminated

c) Extensive on-site verification Signed 8 December 1987

Intermediate-Range Forces (INF) Treaty

•START I - signed in 1991 – US and Russia agreed to reduce ICBMs,

SLBMs and warheads•START II - signed in 1993

– Reduction of strategic nuclear arsenals to 3,000-3,500 by 2007

•START III – superceded by SORT•SORT – not verified or reversible

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START)

Opened for signature in 1968

More signatures than any other arms control treaty

Two-part bargain between nuclear weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS)

Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

(NPT) Article VI

“Each of the Parties to the Treaty

undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to

cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to

nuclear disarmament, and on a

treaty on general and complete disarmament

under strict and effective international control.”

(NPT) Safeguards

The International Atomic Energy Agency is responsible for a safeguards system to verify compliance with the NPT by conducting regular inspections of signatories to the Treaty

Review Conference – (RevCon)every 5 years over 4 weeksmeetings held at United Nations in New

York1995 – NPT indefinite extension2000 – 13 Point Action Plan

(NPT) The Review Cycle

2-27 May 2005

Disagreement over conference agenda:

-Nth Korea, Iran, CTBT, disarmament, non-NPT states, past decisions/agreements

No substantive text produced

NPT 2005 Review

Opened for signature 24 September 1996

Bans all nuclear testsAll 44 “Annex II” must sign and ratify 3 “Annex II” states still to sign11 “Annex II” states still to ratifyCTBTO working from Vienna

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

First suggested at the UN over 50 years ago Enthusiasm for a FMCT from early 1990s

onwards Talks at Conference on Disarmament

deadlocked Disagreement over:

-Existing stocks

-Scope of the treaty

Fissile Materials Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT or “fissban”)

28 April 2004Threat from Non-state actorsCalls on states to enact national

legislationMember states must report to the 1540

Committee

Security Council Res 1540

Advisory Opinion, July 8, 1996:

“...the threat or use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, and in particular the principles and rules of humanitarian law.”

International Court of Justice

Supplements and reinforces the role of international laws (UN Charter, humanitarian law NPT etc)

Nuclear weapons are now in effect illegal under international law

International Court of Justice - Implications

Treaties completely banning nuclear explosive devices in territories:Latin America (Treaty of Tlatelolco)South Pacific (Treaty of Rarotonga)South East Asia (Treaty of Bangkok)Africa (Treaty of Pelindaba)

Proposed zones for Central Asia, Central Europe and the Middle East

Nuclear Free Zones (NWFZs)

1. Antarctic Treaty 2. Treaty of Tlatelolco 3.Treaty of Rarotonga 4.Treaty of Bangkok 5.Treaty of Pelindaba 6. Mongolia

22 334455

Existing NWFZs

NPT: Signed-188, Ratified-188CTBT: Signed-175, Ratified-122

(“Annex 2”-33)FMCT: Treaty in draft formNWC: Treaty in draft form

Status Of Key Treaties In 2006

Status Of The Non-proliferation & Disarmament Regimes

The risk of nuclear war has not gone away and is in fact increasing

The opportunity presented by the end of the cold war was squandered

Multilateral disarmament deadlocked

The ICAN Campaign

ICAN stands for International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear

weapons

ICAN to address the erosion of the global nuclear disarmament regime

Nuclear Weapons Convention – Review, update, progress

MAPW to take a leading role within IPPNW and the global peace movement in the ICAN Campaign

Draft text produced by NGOs Submitted to the UN by Costa Rica in 1997 NWC would prohibit:

development testing production stockpiling transfer use and threat of use

Model Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC)

What ICAN Would Aim For

IPPNW members feel that a coordinated effort across states and institutions, in the framework of voluntary governmental and non-governmental participation, is necessary if there is to be a reversal of the nuclear threat.

One element of such coordination will be a multilateral agreement to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons ~ a Nuclear Weapons Convention.

How To Work Towards A NWC

It is strongly felt that the campaign for a NWC would need to be based on an Ottawa style process that lead to the Landmines Treaty – a strong and effectively coordinated global coalition of NGO's and international organisations that drew in governments, starting with Canada, and achieved a treaty in the space of five years.

Phases for Elimination

All States possessing nuclear weapons will be required to destroy their arsenals according to a series of phases.

Step by Step…

The Convention outlines a series of five phases for the elimination of nuclear weapons beginning with: taking nuclear weapons off alert removing weapons from deployment removing nuclear warheads from their delivery

vehicles disabling the warheads removing and disfiguring the "pits" and placing the fissile material under inter-national

control.

Fissile Materials And Delivery Vehicles

The Convention also prohibits the production of weapons-usable fissile material and requires delivery vehicles to be destroyed or converted to make them non-nuclear capable.

Working Towards A Nuclear Weapons Free World

Today some of these issues may appear intractable, and there is no guarantee that they are soluble.

However, a robust and open debate is the most likely - if not the only - way to generate creative solutions and engage the broad transnational and cross-industrial involvement necessary for a nuclear weapons free world.

Nuclear Weapons Knowledge

Nuclear weapons knowledge cannot be disinvented. However, a vast portion of the knowledge, design and maintenance information can and should be destroyed once it is no longer necessary for disarmament.

Our Responsibility

Moreover, and precisely because we cannot return to a world innocent of nuclear weapons knowledge, the answer to the "genie out of the bottle" is to increase scientific responsibility and awareness of potential proliferation risks.

Get Involved

For further information about the NCW, please see: http://www.ippnw.org/NWC.html

or contact the Medical Association for Prevention of War (Australia)

phone: (03) 8344 1637

email: mapw@mapw.org.au

Medical Association for Prevention of War Australia

(MAPW)

National Office: P.O. Box 1379, Carlton VIC 3053, AustraliaPh: 03 8344 1637 Fax: 03 8344 1638

www.mapw.org.au mapw@mapw.org.auAustralian affiliate of International Physicians for Prevention of

Nuclear War (IPPNW)

nuclear weapons today a presentation prepared by the medical association for prevention of war

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