noaa’s storm surge roadmap: a coordinated approach for transitioning research to operations j....

NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap: a Coordinated Approach for Transitioning Research to

Operations

J. Feyen, M. Erickson, J. Rhome, M. Weaks and A. Taylor

with NOAA’s Storm Surge Action and Planning Team

64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 1

Overview

• Why a NOAA Roadmap for Storm Surge?

• Purpose of the Roadmap

• Overview of the Roadmap

• Coordinating with our partners– Interagency Working Group

The Imperative

• Increasing Risks– Increasing coastal populations and sea level

rise require more deliberate planning

• Increasing Demand– Decision makers require fine-scale local

information that communicates risk clearly

• Improving Science & Technology – Surge modeling, the social science of

decision making, information technology

• NOAA Must Collaborate– Partner to organize and lead state of the art

research and development while making best use of resources

Vision for NOAA’s Storm Surge Enterprise

• Highly accurate, relevant and timely storm induced coastal inundation information, clearly communicated, which results in significant reductions in loss of life and ensures all coastal communities are optimally resistant and resilient to inundation impacts

– Drive community planning to reduce risk to life and property– Train and educate population to respond to threats appropriately– Infuse state of the art science and technology to refine risk

assessment and reduce unnecessary evacuations– Communicate street level impacts that result in appropriate

personal and community response before, during and after the events

The Bottom Line

Customers Ask:• How much water?• Where will it go? How close

to my house?• When will it arrive, and how

fast? When will it recede?• What is the impact on

structures & ecosystem?• How often will it occur?• How should I respond?

NOAA Must Provide:• Total Water Level (TWL)• Inundation depth

products at street level• Actionable information to

promote resilient and resistant risk-wise behavior

Goals of the Roadmap

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• Total Water Level: Produce water level analyses, forecasts, observations, and products that include:– pre-storm forerunner, surge, tides, waves, fresh water

inflow, speed, impact

• Inundation: Provide information about the water depth over the land (inundation) to street level resolution

• Communication Actionable Information: Deliver information that people act on – understandable, consistent information available in multiple

formats– uncertainty, supports risk assessments, provides impact

information, includes scenarios

Purpose of the Roadmap

• Shows us our starting point and where we want to arrive

• Effective approach to long-range planning; shows a path to the future

• Effective for communicating and engaging across the agency, and with our partners

• Bottom line: first-ever comprehensive effort to holistically address rapidly expanding problem and establish a community approach

Roadmap Structure

Program/Portfolio Manager NOAA PM for Storm Surge

Storm Surge Action and Planning TeamPM, Office representatives

NWS: Field, OCWWS, OH, NCEP, OST

NOS: OCS, CSC, CO-OPS, IOOS, OCRM; OAR - NSSL

Inte

r-ag

ency

, Nati

onal

Coa

stal

Com

mun

ity

Org

aniz

ation

s

Executive Steering Team Office Directors from NOS, NWS

(D. Berchoff, M. Davidson, Z. Willis)

3 Phase Approach

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Phase II (3-5 yrs)Research and develop new approaches; evaluate for

transition to operations

Phase I (0-2 yrs)Consensus building and quick wins to improve our

products today; lay groundwork for longer term

Phase III (6-10 yrs)Implementation of new products and services

within operations

Co

ntin

ual

Refin

emen

t

Phase 1 Implementation Plan Summary

• What do we deliver in Phase 1?– Move closer to TWL and improve operations

• SLOSH with tides, extratropical ADCIRC (surge+tides), test ensembling

– Improve access for customers • central website, social science studies, recovery best

practices

– Leverage community • grid catalogue, SDP NetCDF support, super-regional test

bed

– Prepare for future• NWS Surge Team, next gen modeling framework,

forecast validation method

Coordinating at the Federal Level

• Interagency Working Group (IWG)– under the auspices of the President’s National Science

and Technology Council/Committee of Environment and Natural Resources/Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR)

• Why SDR?– Facilitates U.S. Government and private/academic

activities to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards

– SDR already developed priority science and technology interagency actions for coastal inundation

• Who?– NOAA, USACE, FEMA, USGS, DOT, DOE, NSF, EPA

IWG Purpose

• Evaluate agencies’ coastal inundation research, data, and plans (underway)

• Establish clear interagency roles and set priorities

• Coordinate agency priorities, planning, and budget processes

• Serve as the primary channel for communicating collective expertise and fostering sound policy

• Bottom line: highly-visible/influential group tasked with advancing storm surge

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Roadmap Summary

• Intra-agency planning and coordination tool• Goals

– Total Water Level

– Inundation products

– Communication of actionable information

• Coordinates with partners on research and development– Federal alignment within IWG

• You can inform us about users’ requirements; provide feedback, ideas, and support