new science – new regulations bruce herbold (epa) iep and pod management teams
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New Science – New Regulations
Bruce Herbold (EPA)IEP and POD Management Teams
Fall abundance in 2008 continued low for all POD fishes. Source DFG 2008 Fall MW Trawl
No sampling 1974 and 1979
Delta Smelt
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Longfin Smelt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Striped Bass
0
5
10
15
20
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Threadfin Shad
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
FISH ABUNDANCE
PHYSICAL
& CHEMICAL
FISH HABITAT
Prior Fish Abundance
TOP-DOWN
BOTTOM-UP
Water
Diversions
Predation
Food availability
Food quality
Temperature Turbidity Salinity
Contaminants
Disease
Toxic algae
SAV
Fish Facilities Provide Data on Numbers Salvaged
Up to 35-65 Percent of Delta
Inflow
Water Project Losses
0500
1,0001,500
0
10,000
20,000
0
5,000,0000
500,000Striped Bass
Delta smelt
Longfin smelt
Winter Salvage (Nov-Mar)
94 96 98 00 02 04
Threadfin Shad
250,000
2,500,000
Fall abundance in 2008 continued low for all POD fishes. Source DFG 2008 Fall MW Trawl
No sampling 1974 and 1979
Delta Smelt
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Longfin Smelt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Striped Bass
0
5
10
15
20
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Threadfin Shad
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Ab
un
da
nc
e In
de
x
Old and Middle Rivers as an Integrator of Hydrodynamic Effects
Old River
Middle
River
y = -4E-05x + 0.7265
R2 = 0.309
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
-10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000
1993-2005
Mean Values for December-March
Negative Old & Middle River Flows Apparently Increase Adult Delta Smelt Entrainment
Source: Source Lenny Grimaldo (In Review)
r2 = 0.31, p<0.05
Del
ta S
mel
tS
WP
& C
VP
Sa
lva
ge
(lo
g c
ou
nt)
Combined Old & Middle River Flow (cfs)
1993-1999
2000-2005
“First Flush/turbidity spike”W
inte
r
14 days of OMR
-2000 cfs
Spawning (temp<12 C)La
te W
inte
r-Sp
ring
OMR -3500 to -5000 cfs
Downstream Movement (temp 12-25 C)
Sp
ring
OMR -1250 to -5000 cfs
Typical Distribution
Source: Sommer et al. In review
Fall
Wet year outflow
7000-11,000 cfs
Rearing ( about 1 ppt salinity)
FISH ABUNDANCE
PHYSICAL
& CHEMICAL
FISH HABITAT
Prior Fish Abundance
TOP-DOWN
BOTTOM-UP
Water
Diversions
Predation
Food availability
Food quality
Temperature Turbidity Salinity
Contaminants
Disease
Toxic algae
SAV
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Fal
l E
Q i
nd
exFall “habitat quality” deteriorated
Striped bass
Delta smelt
Source: Feyrer et al. (CJFAS 2007)
September-November Outflow
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Fall EQ + Fall Abundance predicts juvenile production
Fall “habitat quality” matters to the delta smelt population
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
3.5 4.5 5.5Log Dec-May Outflow
Lo
g A
bu
nd
an
ce
2007
20062003
20042005
20022001
2008
Increased outflow = more longfin smelt.
Fall Midwater Trawl
Upper Estuary –relation changed
Lower Estuary – relation unchanged
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
3.5 4.5 5.5Log Dec-May Outflow
Lo
g A
bu
nd
an
ce
2006
200520042003
2002
2007
2001
2008
Bay Study Otter Trawl
Pre-clam
Post-clam
POD years
Source:
Randy Baxter, DFG
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
South SF Central SF San Pablo Suisun West Delta
Region
To
tal
Catch MWT
OT
0
200
400
600
800
South SF Central SF San Pablo Suisun West Delta
Region
To
tal
Catch MWT
OTb
a
Where the smelt are in the bay
Other habitat stressors
• Bioassays showed little effect (<5 %) in 2005 or 2006.
• <15% adult delta smelt impaired• 100 % of young striped bass show
multiple infections• Little evidence of toxicity
Source: Inge Werner, Swee Teh, and Dave Ostrach (UCD)
Sewage Treatment Plants
POD & Nutrients
Example: Ammonia pollution
Increasing Ammonia levels
in Delta and Suisun Bay
Potential Ecosystem
Effects
Monthly Ammonia Loads in the Sacramento River at Hood and in Effluent from the Sacramento Regional WWTP
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Date
To
tal M
on
thly
Am
mo
nia
-N L
oa
d(m
etr
ic t
on
s/m
on
th)
Sacramento River atHood/Greenes LandingSRWTP Effluent
~ 90% of the Ammonia Load at Hood comes from the Sacramento Regional
Wastewater Treatment Plant
Sources: A. Mueller-Solger, DWR; A. Jassby, in press SFEWS
Widespread blooms of the toxic alga Microcystis in
2007
Core Habitat of Delta Smelt
August Levels: 1.3 million cells/mL
Source: Peggy Lehman (DWR)
MicrocystisMicrocystis grows grows well on ammonia! well on ammonia! (Diatoms don’t)(Diatoms don’t)
MicrocystisMicrocystis grows grows well on ammonia! well on ammonia! (Diatoms don’t)(Diatoms don’t)
July August 2007 Microcystis bloom and smelt effects
L55
Fish & zooplankton collection
August Microcystis bloom
Sept delta smelt distribution
Alternative Life Histories
0
10
20
30
40
Fall Winter Spring SummerFall Winter Spring Summer
Liberty Island
% c
atc
h
40
0
FISH ABUNDANCE
BOTTOM-UP
Food availability
Food quality
A Major Emphasis on Habitat Restoration
to Boost the Delta Food Web
BUT… only local effect likely
FISH ABUNDANCE
PHYSICAL
& CHEMICAL
FISH HABITAT
Prior Fish Abundance
TOP-DOWN
BOTTOM-UP
Water
Diversions
Predation
Food availability
Food quality
Temperature Turbidity Salinity
Contaminants
Disease
Toxic algae
SAV
2 5 10 15 205
10
50
100
500
72
7375
76
77
78
80
81
82
83
8485
86
8788 8990
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
9900
01
02
03
04
Sur
viva
l Ind
ex
Biomass, mgC m-3
Del
ta S
mel
t
Zooplankton (Jul-Oct)
Source: Wim Kimmerer (In review)
Food Affects Summer Smelt Survival But Recent Levels Were Not Remarkable
Stock - Recruitment Effects
0
20
40
60
80
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
4
8
12
16
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Fall Midwater Trawl (Adults)
Delta smelt
Threadfin shad
Juvenile
Pro
du
ctio
nPOD Years
20002001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007
R2 = 0.88
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3 4 5 6 7
ln FMWT (previous year)
ln T
NS
Have Delta Smelt Dropped Below Critical Population Levels?
Adults (FMWT)
Juvenile
(TN
S)
Source: Anke Mueller-Solger (DWR)
Recent T
rend
Striped Bass Revisited
What’s Wrong With This Picture?
Age-O
Adults
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
1000
2000
3000
19
69
19
74
19
79
19
84
19
89
19
94
19
99
20
04
Tow
net
index
Adult
abu
ndance
(1
000)
Juveniles
Adults
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
What Happened To All Of The Mamas?
Perc
en
t Fem
ale
s
Gill Net Sampling
40
30
10
20
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
96
20
00
20
03
20
05
Effect of Sex Shift on Population?Petersen Estimates
Adult
s
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
96
20
00
20
03
20
05
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
96
20
00
20
03
20
05
Gill Net Sex Ratio Applied to Petersen Estimates
Effect of Sex Shift on Population?Petersen Estimates
Adult
sA
dult
s
Flow
Phosphorus
Ammonia
Temperature
Contaminants
“Harvest”
turbidity
Clams
Jellyfish
Edge and benthic fish
Microcystis
Aquatic Weeds
Low and Constant
Limited
Lots
Warm
High
High
Low
Highly variable
Lots
Little
Cool
Low
Low
High
Diatoms
Pelagic fish
Natives thrive
Resists invasions
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