new publication - banca d'italia · edition: 2006 • 2 nd edition: 2014 • translated in...
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NEW PUBLICATION “UNDERSTANDING FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS”
Conference Banca d’Italia on “How Financial Systems Work: Evidence from Financial Accounts” Rome, November 30 – December 1, 2017 Presented by Peter van de Ven Head of National Accounts, OECD
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An expression of love and admiration
National Accounts
She is beautiful, she is elegant, she is …
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• Understanding National Accounts • 1st edition: 2006 • 2nd edition: 2014 • Translated in Chinese and
Spanish
• Understanding Economic Statistics (2008)
• Understanding Financial Accounts
Short historic overview
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• 2007-09 Economic and Financial Crisis • Growing attention for financial
issues, including its relationships with the non-financial “real” economy
• G-20 Data Gaps Initiative, especially Recommendation II.8 on Institutional Sector Accounts
• Created a massive momentum for improving data on financial accounts and balance sheets
• But … lots of misunderstanding about the framework of statistics and how they relate to each other
• Financial accounts and balance sheets: overarching umbrella and organising framework for other recommendations
Background
G-20 Data Gaps Initiative
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• Push from under-usage, and lack of knowledge and understanding of relevant data
• Importance of having good tools for education and training
Background
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• Editors: Peter van de Ven and Daniele Fano
• Contributions from: • National central banks
of Austria, Italy and Portugal
• National statistical offices of Australia and Canada
• Treasury of Canada • Fondazione AIB • BIS, ECB, IMF and
OECD
General information
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• Introduction. A brief overview of financial accounts and balance sheets
• Chapter 1. Financial accounts and balance sheets within the system of national accounts
• Chapter 2. The role of financial markets • Chapter 3. The role of financial corporations in
the financial system • Chapter 4. Households and their financial
behaviour • Chapter 5. The financing of non-financial
corporations
Chapters
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• Chapter 6. Deficit and debt of general government and public sector
• Chapter 7. The financial relationships with the rest of the world
• Chapter 8. A full accounting for wealth: including non-financial assets
• Chapter 9. Accounting for the financial consequences of demographic changes
• Chapter 10. Globalisation, financial innovation and crises
• Chapter 11. Financial accounts uses
Chapters
10
Chapter 6. Deficit and debt of general government and public sector
by: Robert Dippelsman (IMF)
Gabriele Semeraro (Banca d’Italia) João Cadete de Matos (Banco de Portugal)
Julia Catz (ECB) Gabriel Quirós (IMF)
Filipa Lima (Banco de Portugal)
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Chapter 11. Financial accounts uses by:
Riccardo De Bonis (Banca d’Italia) Celestino Girón (ECB)
Luigi Infante (Banca d’Italia) Gabriel Quirós (IMF)
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Chapter 11. Financial accounts uses by:
Riccardo De Bonis (Banca d’Italia) Celestino Girón (ECB)
Luigi Infante (Banca d’Italia) Gabriel Quirós (IMF)
Perhaps only chapter 8 slightly better!
Some Examples from Understanding Financial Accounts
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General overview of sector accounts
Developments within financial corporations
Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) versus Other Financial Intermediaries (OFIs) in the USA, 1990-2017
0,00
5.000.000,00
10.000.000,00
15.000.000,00
20.000.000,00
25.000.000,00
30.000.000,00
Q1-
1990
Q4-
1990
Q3-
1991
Q2-
1992
Q1-
1993
Q4-
1993
Q3-
1994
Q2-
1995
Q1-
1996
Q4-
1996
Q3-
1997
Q2-
1998
Q1-
1999
Q4-
1999
Q3-
2000
Q2-
2001
Q1-
2002
Q4-
2002
Q3-
2003
Q2-
200
4Q
1-20
05Q
4-20
05Q
3-20
06Q
2-20
07
Q1-
2008
Q4-
2008
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2010
Q1-
2011
Q4-
2011
Q3-
2012
Q2-
2013
Q1-
2014
Q4-
2014
Q3-
2015
Q2-
2016
Q1-
2017
MFIs
OFIs
Internal and external sources of funding for non-financial corporations
Internal sources (gross saving) and external sources (change in liabilities) of funds of non-financial corporations in Germany and USA, 1999 – 2015
Germany USA
Liquid assets of non-financial corporations
Liquid assets of Canadian non-financial corporations, 2000 – 2016
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%Liquid assets to total assets
Liquid assets to total financialassets
Tobin’s q for non-financial corporations
0,8
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Tobin’s q for the non-financial corporations’ sector in Canada, 1990 – 2016
Level and composition of households’ financial assets
Debt and debt service of households
273
252
215 201
177 167
143
127 123 110 107 105 103
87 85 82
16 18 15 15 11 12 10 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 6 5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Debt to GDI Ratio Debt Service Ratio
Debt and debt service ratios of households (% of disposable income) in OECD countries, 2016
Dwellings versus mortgage debt of households
Dwellings (including underlying land) versus mortgage loans, 2003 – 2015
Government debt: beware of the definition!
Debt and net (financial) worth of general government
Government Balance Sheets, 2015
Development of US external position
US external position, 1976 – 2015
Some Examples from Understanding Financial Accounts
Showing Future Needs
Future needs: improved accounting for non-financial assets
Development of net worth in France, 1995 – 2015
Future needs: improved accounting for revaluations
Accumulation of households’ net worth, 2002 – 2017
Future needs: shadow banking
Other financial intermediaries, 1995 – 2015
Future needs: from-whom-to-whom matrices (interconnectedness)
2007 2010
2011 2014
Future needs: distributional data
Some Concluding Remarks
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• Thanks and compliments to all contributors, among which Banca d’Italia
• A lot of work, but …
Concluding remarks
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• Thanks and compliments to all contributors, among which Banca d’Italia
• A lot of work, but …
• … rewarding, and hopefully it lives up to our expectations in providing value added
Concluding remarks
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• Thanks and compliments to all contributors, among which Banca d’Italia
• A lot of work, but …
• … rewarding, and hopefully it lives up to our expectations in providing value added
• Not done yet! On-line version still needs to be supplemented with • Exercises • Multiple choice quiz
Concluding remarks
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Thank you for your attention!
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