nbnpha 2014 conference saint john keynote - dr. michael haan new brunswick’s demographic and...

Demographic Challenges

Michael Haan, PhDCanada Research Chair in Population and Social Policy

University of New Brunswickmhaan@unb.ca

Demography, Poverty & Affordable Housing in New Brunswick

Outline

1. Basic demographic trends2. Migration is a primary driver of demographic and economic

change. 3. Trends in Intra-provincial migration4. Implications for housing

What we can/can’t do with Demography

Point #1:Basic Demographic Trends

Population of Canadian Provinces, 1851-2011

160 years of Population Change in Canada

Fertility rates

Fertility Rates in 1951 (National rank)• Prince Edward Island: 5.1 (1)• Nova Scotia: 4.8 (4)• Newfoundland/Labrador: 4.9 (3)• New Brunswick: 5.0 (2)

Birth Rates in 2011 (National rank)• Prince Edward Island: 1.48 (7)• Nova Scotia: 1.40 (9)• Newfoundland/Labrador: 1.34 (10)• New Brunswick: 1.41 (8)

New Brunswick’s Population Pyramid, 1956-2006• http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-

sa/97-551/vignettes/nb06pymd.swf

Canada’s Demographic Haves and Have Nots• As of 2001: % of living population residing in

province of birth (Ontario): • Newfoundland/Labrador: 70.1% (13.82%)• Prince Edward Island: 69.9% (11.69%)• Nova Scotia: 74.0% (12.32%)• New Brunswick: 73.5% (9.76%)• Quebec: 92.0% (5.19%)• Ontario: 90.4%• Manitoba: 72.6% (6.4%)• Saskatchewan: 64.8% (4.23%)• Alberta: 81.1% (2.95%)• British Columbia: 87.9% (3.06%)

New Brunswick, 2011.

Growth Sources #2 + 3: Immigration and Migration

Source: Statistics Canada’s Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada, 2009-2036

Growth trends, 2012 New Brunswick

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2012004/t323-eng.htm

Point #2: Migration drives demographic and economic change.

Total Dependency Ratio, 1991

Total Dependency Ratio, 1996

Total Dependency Ratio, 2001

Total Dependency Ratio, 2006

Total Dependency Ratio, 2011

Population < age 15, 1991

Population < age 15, 1996

Population < age 15, 2001

Population < age 15, 2006

Population < age 15, 2011

Proportion age 65+, 1991

Proportion age 65+, 1996

Proportion age 65+, 2001

Proportion age 65+, 2006

Proportion age 65+, 2011

.

.

Population Change, 1991-2011

Rural Decline, 2006-2011

Point 3: Implications for housing and poverty

Employment Growth in NB, 1996-2006

New Brunswick: Fast Facts

1. % Interprovincial employees: 2% of the workforce (~10% in Campbellton-Miramichi).

2. Employment Insurance Recipients: 28% (~44% in Campbellton-Miramichi).

1. 21% of taxfilers have no employment income whatsoever. 3. Low income: 14% (17% in Campbellton-Miramichi)4. Pension Plan: 35% (30% in Edmunston-Woodstock).

Conclusion: Implications for the housing and povertyGet ready for:1. Declines in child poverty.2. A growth in poverty among seniors.3. New forms of poverty

1. Immigrants2. Lone parents (new types of lone parents)3. Mismatched people.

4. Housing shortages alongside growing vacancies.