natural disaster risk and loss assessment in china wenchuan...2014/som3/epwg/sdmof/013 session 1...

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2014/SOM3/EPWG/SDMOF/013 Session 1

Natural Disaster Risk and Loss Assessment in China

Submitted by: China

8th Senior Disaster Management Officials Forum Beijing, China

11-12 August 2014

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Yuan YiNational Disaster Reduction of ChinaAugust 11, 2014

Emergency Response Law of the People's Republic of China (Implemented in Nov. 1, 2007)

Regulations of Nature Disaster Relief(Implemented in Sep. 1, 2010)

Aggravation of natural disaster risks

Complication and diversification of 

disaster losses and impacts

Increasing demands of disaster relief and 

reduction

Working Mechanism 

Development

Technology Development

“National natural disaster assessment system be set up and perfected, risk assessment, emergency response assessment, loss assessment, social influence assessment and performance assessment be continuously enhanced, system for comprehensive assessment of major and catastrophic natural disaster be perfected, and scientificness, standardization and normalization of disaster assessment be raised.”

The National Plan for Disaster Prevention and Reduction (2011—2015)

The research and development of assessment technology system for major natural disaster situations and comprehensive risks is included as one of the major tasks.

Emphasis is laid on the development of qualitative assessment models for losses of major natural disasters, such as earthquakes and geological disasters, meteorological and oceanic disasters, etc., the speeding up of development of fast disaster assessment technology system integrating space technologies and models, and the development of system for comprehensive disaster risk analysis, simulation and policy-making support.

The 12th Five-year Special Plan for National Disaster Prevention and Reduction Science and Technology (2011—2015)

Formulate the working mechanism of disaster assessment 

The Instruction of Enhancing Natural Disaster Relief Assessment, introduced by Ministry of Civil Affair in 2012, based on relief needs, is aimed to actively push the formulation of mechanism of natural disaster relief assessment, standardize assessment program, improve workflow, complete the indices system, explore working approaches.Assessment of natural disaster relief mainly includes 4 major categories, which are relief preparedness assessment, emergency relief assessment, post‐disaster relief assessment and annual comprehensive assessment, and 12 subcategories focusing on specific fields.

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Contents

01   Regional disaster risk assessment

02   Major disaster risk and loss assessment

03   Catastrophic disaster loss assessment

Risk Assessment for Different Types ofDisasters and Major Industries

Risk Assessment for Different Types ofDisasters and Major Industries

中国台风灾害直接经济损失年遇型风险（50年一遇）Typhoon disaster risk of direct economic loss of China of 

once every 50 years

Annual Disaster Risk Assessment

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Contents

01   Regional disaster risk assessment

02   Major disaster risk and loss assessment

03   Catastrophic disaster loss assessment

Major disaster risk and loss assessment

The objectives of loss assessment: Objectively and timely learn about the damages and economic losses 

caused by disasters. Timely launch national and local emergency plans, and take emergency 

relief measures. Formulate the plans for recovery and reconstruction. 

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Carry out fast assessment using empirical/simulation models

Earthquake

Vulnerability curve indicating damaged status slight ~ severe

Flood and waterlogging

short and long waveradiationlong wave

radiationsensible heat

heat to ground

baresoil

evapotranspirationprecipitation

surface runoff

interflow

groundwaterflowinfiltration

percolation

recharge

soilsoilbarevegetatedsoilvegetated

WetSpa distributed hydrological model

Earthquake damage matrix(%) for houses of steel and cement in areas with a basic intensity of IX

Intensity

Intact

Slightly damage

d

Moderately 

damaged

Severely 

damaged

Completely 

destroyed

VI 95.0  5.0  0.0  0.0  0.0 

VII 90.0  10.0  0.0  0.0  0.0 

VIII 80.0  15.0  5.0  0.0  0.0 

IX 55.0  35.5  8.5  1.0  0.0 

X 30.0  35.0  27.0  5.5  2.5 

Carry out fast assessment using empirical/simulation models

Tyhoon

Drought

Carry out fast assessment using empirical/simulation models

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Carry out fast assessment using empirical/simulation models

15 15

Earthquake

30-40 minutes

Flood and waterlogging

Tyhoon

Drought

2-4 houres

On‐the‐spot Investigation and Grassroots Statistics andReporting of Natural Disaster Losses

On‐the‐spot Investigation and Grassroots Statistics andReporting of Natural Disaster Losses

Make Use of Remote‐Sensing Technology inDisaster Monitoring and Assessment

Make Use of Remote‐Sensing Technology inDisaster Monitoring and Assessment

Carry out comprehensive assessmentmaking use of the several methods

In recent years, using the mentioned‐above methods, China central government carried out the losses assessment for about 50 major natural disasters every year to support the decision‐making of the disaster emergency and relief.

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Contents

01   Regional disaster risk assessment

02   Major disaster risk and loss assessment

03   Catastrophic disaster loss assessment

Formulate the working mechanism of disaster assessment 

Working mechanism participated by multiple departmentsfor catastrophic disaster comprehensive assessment

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Statistical System for Catastrophic Natural Disaster Losses

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Multiple‐method comprehensive assessment technologyfor catastrophic disasters

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Thanks…