national identity and ethnic‐religious conflicts: some statistical correlations
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This article was downloaded by: [University of California Santa Cruz]On: 13 November 2014, At: 12:23Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registeredoffice: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK
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National identity and ethnic‐religiousconflicts: Some statistical correlationsJun Osawa aa IIPS Research Fellow , IIPSPublished online: 11 Apr 2007.
To cite this article: Jun Osawa (1997) National identity and ethnic‐religious conflicts: Somestatistical correlations, Asia-Pacific Review, 4:1, 125-150, DOI: 10.1080/13439009708719943
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National identity andethnic-religious conflicts:Some statistical correlations
JUN OSAWA
Statistical analysis is used to examine the relationship between economicdevelopment and ethnic conflicts. IIPS Research Fellow Jun Osawa arguesthat the data does not suggest a simplistic cause-and-effect relationship,as one would initially assume. Not surprisingly, ethnic minorities whohave lost their independence are more likely to resort to violence to getit back, and feelings of antagonism can be exacerbated by economicinequalities. States with high economic growth can possibly prevent ethnicconflicts from breaking out within their borders, but the level of growthneeded is much higher than in developed countries and must be sustained.
Introduction
At this moment, there are ongoing conflicts in approximately fifty countries
and seventy regions around the world. In many of these conflicts, ethnic problems
play a role in spurring continued violence. The level of ethnic conflict runs the gamut
from small-scale repression of specific ethnic groups by their own governments to
protests, riots, terrorism, and even large-scale conflicts that can best be described as
civil wars.
Ethnic conflicts received international attention in the 1990s as they erupted in
former socialist countries.1 A typical example of this is the bloody civil war in the
former Yugoslavia, especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But there are also other problems,
such as with the Serbs in the Krajina area of Croatia, the Armenians in the Nagorno-
Karabakh area of Azerbaijan in the former Soviet Union, the Russians in Georgia
and Moldova, and the Islamic guerrillas in Tajikistan in Central Asia.
Ethnic conflicts are becoming a focus of attention in international relations because
they are especially related to the security of the international community. Today's
international relations are, of course, based upon the nation-state system. The basic
prerequisites under this system are that governments are in control of their respective
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territories, that each government exercises its own sovereignty, and that states recognize
each other's existence as such. But ethnic conflicts that occur within such states
threaten to disintegrate the states that comprise the nation-state system. This is easily
seen from an examination of the chain of unfortunate events that followed the
dismemberment of the former Yugoslavia in 1991-1992, and
1 JlG Ongoing the string of ethnic troubles that broke out in a number of
PPiy* £\ \ pi-c i-ri republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
t O Q 3 . y S WOrlCL Ethnic conflicts can also become a destabilizing factor
£»TY=» n o t lAfPirc for regional security if they spread across national boundaries,
as with Croatians and Serbians in Bosnia and Armenians in
U6TZV66TI S TciTcS, Azerbaijan, when there is a state whose majority population
|_ 1 1 j . /-"pjt-jfi-ipf c *s °f ^ e same ethnicity as a minority population in ethnic
conflict in an adjacent country. In these cases, ethnic conflicts
WltnlYl t n G S t c i t C demand serious attention because they exert a direct impact
on the international security environment.
Why do ethnic conflicts occur at all? Is it simply because diverse ethnic groups
reside in large numbers within the framework of one state?
There are approximately 190 states today, all of which are treated as if they are
nation-states. But the fact is that only about ten of these states comprise a single
ethnicity.2 In other words, most states do have ethnic minorities within their national
boundaries. But not all of these 170 countries with ethnic minorities have ethnic
troubles, let alone conflicts. Only fifty-six countries actually have ongoing problems
that fall under the accurate definition of ethnic conflict, and of those, only about
twenty cases represent the most intensive category, which could be called "wars."
These figures indicate that the mere existence of a minority ethnic group or groups
does not necessarily lead to ethnic conflict. Therefore, there must be other factors
that prompt ethnic conflict. It should be possible to identify some of these in order to
solve current conflicts and to prevent future ones.
Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia are three areas with many ongoing ethnic
conflicts. In contrast, there are relatively few conflicts in Europe, East Asia, Southeast
Asia, and the Americas (see Figure 1). But this does not mean that there are fewer
numbers of ethnic minorities in regions like Europe and Southeast Asia. In France,
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National identity and ethnic-religious conflicts
Figure 1: Ethnic conflicts throughout the world
Source: Ted Robert Gurr, Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts(Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993).
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for example, the Basques comprise 0.4 percent and the Bretons 6.8 percent of the
country's total population. Malaysia and Thailand have Chinese populations of 34
percent and 10 percent respectively of their total populations. A comparison of
areas with ethnic conflicts and those without ethnic conflicts quickly shows that
ethnic conflict is more common in developing countries, while developed countries
enjoy relative peace. To use quantitative indicators in measuring economic affluence,
the average per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power
parity (PPP) and the average per-capita GDP based on market exchange rate (MER)
for conflict-ridden areas are respectively US$ 1,635 and US$3,125, while worldwide
averages are US$5,346 and US$6,100.3
These figures would appear to show that the economic environment is perhaps
one factor that affects ethnic conflicts. To answer the question of what kinds of factors
help cause ethnic conflicts, this paper shall examine both economic conditions and
outbreaks of ethnic conflicts with a primary focus on economic causative factors.
Further, to analyze the factors that lead to ethnic minority conflict, 233 ethnic group
cases were analyzed, classified by criteria developed by Professor Ted Robert Gurr
of the University of Maryland. In conducting the present analysis, the paper adds
some more economic data to those developed by Professor Gurr for further statistical
analysis.
There is a long list of past studies in international politics and international
relations about conflict, especially about wars between states. The ongoing conflicts
in today's world, however, are not wars between states but are, rather, conflicts
within the state.
This means that a different approach from the state-centered methodology used
in the past is needed for analyzing today's conflicts, and analyses of the relationship
between the international system and conflict traditionally dealt with in international
relations studies must be reexamined. The characteristics of intra-state conflict should
be considered from different aspects, including why, from a sociological viewpoint,
an ethnic identity develops; what might be the political processes by which ethnic
groups demand their economic and political rights and clamor for autonomy and
independence; and what kind of income gap and other economic conditions might
lie behind such ethnicity issues.
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National identity and ethnic-religious conflicts
The present state of ethnic conflictsThere are ongoing conflicts in fifty-six countries and sixty-seven areas. According
to Professor Gurr's classification method, the conflicts fall into the following categories:
twenty-two "War (WAR)-level" major armed conflicts; thirty-one "Low-Intensity
Conflict (LlC)-level" low-intensity conflicts with violence, including armed clashes,
terrorism, or deadly rioting; four "Dispute (DlS)-level" serious disputes with little
armed violence; and ten "Repression (REP)-level" serious conflicts in which most
violence is a consequence of state repression (see Table 1). An analysis according to
relative intensity carried out by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI) classified twenty-eight of the world's ongoing conflicts as "large-scale."
Table 1: Scale of ethnic conflicts
WAR
22
LIC
31
DIS
4
REP
10
Places experiencing ongoing ethnic conflicts include ten countries and twelve
areas in Europe (west of the Urals), eight countries and eleven areas in the Middle
East and North Africa, eight countries and twelve areas in Central and South Asia,
six countries and ten areas in the Asia-Pacific region (which includes East Asia,
Southeast Asia, and Oceania), nineteen countries and nineteen areas in Africa south
of the Sahara Desert, and four countries and four areas in the Americas.
Of these, ten of the twelve European ethnic conflicts are a result of the dissolution
of the former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union. A common characteristic of
this region's ethnic conflicts is that they were caused by the fact that the Serbs and
the Russians, who once constituted majorities in the former communist states of
Yugoslavia and the USSR respectively, have become ethnic minorities within the
newly independent states. In the former Yugoslavia, Serbs used to be a plurality,
with 36.3 percent of the total population. They are now a minority of only 5 percent
in the newly independent Croatia, while in Bosnia Muslims account for 43.7 percent of
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the population whereas Serbs now account for only 31.4 percent. As for the former
Soviet Union, ethnic Russians have become a minority in the newly independent Azerbaijan,
Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. In Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, where there
is a geographical concentration of people of ethnic Russian origin, Russians are engaged
in ethnic conflicts demanding independence or local autonomy."
In the Middle East, the Kurds, who live dispersed across national borders in Iran,
Iraq, and Turkey, are involved in ethnic conflicts and are demanding local autonomy
or independence. This region has seen other local conflicts related to Islam in Iran,
Iraq, Bahrain, and Algeria.
In Central and South Asia, India must contend with a pro-independence movement
in the Kashmir region that is supported by Pakistan, and an active movement for
local autonomy in Assam. In Sri Lanka, the Tamijs have waged sporadic local fighting
and used terrorism to push for independence. India has been involved in this conflict
as well because of its concern that the conflict might spread to the Indian Tamil
population. There are also a number of ethnic minorities living in the mountainous
regions of Bangladesh and Myanmar who are still engaged in independence movements.
In the Asia-Pacific region, China faces the Tibetans' clamor for independence
while the Islamic Uighurs and Kazakhs demand greater autonomy. In Indonesia,
East Timor, a former Portuguese colony, has been engaged in a sometimes violent
independence movement against the Indonesian government ever since Indonesia
invaded Timor in 1975. In the Philippines, the Islamic Moros have been waging a
war for their independence and have achieved limited autonomy in some areas of the
country.
In Africa south of the Sahara Desert, there are many countries in which intertribal
confrontations have become civil wars. In Burundi and Rwanda, the Tutsis and the
Hutus have been involved in a retaliatory bloodbath that has now spread into Zaire,
and Christian minorities have been in conflict with their Islamic governments in
Nigeria and Sudan. In the Americas, local conflicts have subsided because pro-communist
guerrilla activities have either diminished or disappeared altogether as a result of the
end of the Cold War. But new ethnic independence movements by native Indian tribes
have arisen and flared into open conflicts in Guatemala and Mexico.
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Economic factors and ethnic conflictPer-capita GDP and the economic growth rate of states with ethnic conflicts should
be among the factors taken into consideration when the causes of such conflicts are
examined. Data was collected from 197 countries and areas of the world and the
average per-capita GDP and economic growth rates from 1980 through 1990 were
plotted (see Figure 2).7 For further comparison, economic indicators were plotted
for countries with ethnic conflicts at four different levels: WAR, LIC, DIS, and REP.
As per-capita GDP data, figures based on MER and others based on the PPP series
estimated by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) of Great Britain
have been used.8 The GDP axis is logarithmically expressed.
Figure 2: Per capita GDP and economic growth rates worldwideand in countries with ethnic conflict
[Worldwide average [
GDP per capitain USS (MER)
Growth rate(av. 1980-1991)
Conflict group
GDP per capitain USS (MER)
. 9 .0 . • :
Growth rate(av. 1980-1991)
[Worldwide average I | Conflict group |
•15.00 -10.00
100000
ioaot
-soo • o
100
10
1
GDP per capitain USS (PPP)
* •* * V * * *•
fo* t W», 5.00•
*
10.00 15.00
Growth rate(av. 1980-1991)
GDP per capitain USS (PPP)
-15.00 -10.00 -5.00 • • 5 . 0 0 10.00 15.00
Growth rate(av. 1980-1991)
Sources: Market exchange rate (MER) data from Saishin Sekaigensei 1996 (Tokyo: Heibonsha,1996). Purchasing power parity (PPP) data from International Institute for StrategicStudies, The Military Balance 1995-1996 (Oxford: OUP, 1995).
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A comparison of countries with ethnic conflicts and the world as a whole for the
period between 1980 and 1991 shows that the average economic growth rate of 2.16
percent for the former came fairly close to the world's 2.41 percent, while the figure
for countries free from conflicts was 2.51 percent (see Table 2). The figures for per-
capita GDP based on MER were US$1,635 for countries with ethnic conflicts; US
$6,751 for countries free from ethnic conflicts; and US$5,346 as the worldwide average.
Figures for per-capita GDP based on PPP were US$3,152 for countries with ethnic
conflicts; US$7,408 for countries free from ethnic conflicts; and US$6,100 as the
worldwide average. These figures make clear that per-capita GDP in countries with
ethnic conflicts is substantially lower—0.4 percent lower, on average—than in countries
free from such strife.
Table 2: Ethnic conflicts and economic growth
GDP (MER)
GDP (PPP)
Economicgrowth rate
Worldwideaverage
$5,346
$6,100
2.41%
Countrieswith ethnicconflicts
$1,635
$3,152
2.16%
Countries freefrom ethnicconflicts
$6,751
$7,408
2.51%
(all monetary figures in US dollars)
Ethnic conflicts have a direct and debilitating impact on economic growth and
per-capita GDP, but from these numbers it is impossible to find a direct causal link.
The per-capita GDP differentials are statistically meaningful, however, as an indication
that ethnic conflicts and economic conditions are closely interrelated in some ways.
Therefore, the relationship between economic conditions and ethnic conflict will be
examined in some depth.
A direct correlation cannot be made because, from the viewpoint of economic
development, economic growth rate is simply a flow indicator. Per-capita GDP expresses
only annual flow and functions as a stock indicator of past economic development
achieved by a given country. The per-capita GDP indicator is customarily used for
sorting states into separate groups, such as developed countries and developing countries,
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by the levels of their economic development. The fact that economic development indicators,
per-capita GDP, and ethnic conflicts are interrelated shows that ethno-religious problems
and economic development tend to influence each other, either in a positive or negative
direction. A faltering economy can lead to dissatisfaction among the populace that may
in turn bring ethnic tensions into the open. Once ethnic conflict erupts, with subsequent
interruption of normal economic activities, a vicious cycle that retards economic growth
is generated. As was the case in Bosnia, deteriorating economic development and a
slowdown in growth in turn made it more difficult to resolve ethnic conflicts.
On the other hand, in countries whose economic development has been uninterrupted,
even where ethnic minorities exist, sustained economic growth has helped prevent
existing ethnic problems from deteriorating into open conflict. In other words, in
areas free from ethnic conflicts, economic growth is apt to go smoothly, which in
turn helps prevent ethnic conflicts. That there are relatively few ethnic conflicts in
East Asia and Southeast Asia, areas with many ethnic minorities, can be interpreted
as a beneficial consequence of positive economic growth. Of course, government
repression of ethnic minorities must also be considered in a discussion of Asia's low
number of ethnic conflicts, but that topic is beyond the scope of this paper.
To examine whether the negative spiral of "ethnic conflict-economic slowdown-
further ethnic conflict" is a case of cause and effect, actual cases must be looked at
more closely. First, the relationship between examples of ethnic conflicts (see Appendix
1) and economic growth shall be examined. It is conventional wisdom that conflicts
result in economic chaos and slow down economic growth. This section, however,
will examine case studies where the deterioration of economic conditions might be
responsible for the outbreak of ethnic conflicts.
As mentioned earlier, the apparent "chicken-and-egg" relationship between economic
conditions and ethnic conflicts is not nearly as clear when it is looked at more carefully.
A closer examination shall be made of the relationship between economic growth
rates and the actual outbreak of ethnic conflict for conflicts that arose during the
latter half of the 1980s and through the 1990s. Generally speaking, to ascertain a
causative relationship one must find a close interrelationship between the variables
in question: one group of variables must precede the other, and there must be universality
and conformity to the interrelationship between the variables. Since it has been shown
that there is a high degree of interrelationship between macroeconomic indicators
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and ethnic conflicts, the time lag between these two factors should also be examined.
Appendix 1 is a list of sixty-eight ethnic conflicts that either started during, or continued
into, the 1990s (see Appendix 2). Of these, thirty-three occurred after 1988 and
through the 1990s. Table 3 shows economic growth rates in the year immediately
preceding the outbreak of ethnic conflicts and the average annual growth rate for the
five-year period preceding the outbreak for these thirty-three cases.
Table 3: Ethnic conflicts and rates of growth
Growth rate (%)
Year beforeconflict
Average of 5years beforeconflict
Negativegrowth
12 countries
10 countries
0-5%
13 countries
19 countries
Over 5%
7 countries(8 regions)
4 countries
In terms of the preceding year's growth rate, seven out of these thirty-three countries
registered a growth rate of 5 percent or more, namely, Ghana, Afghanistan, Djibouti,
India, Mali, Azerbaijan, and Somalia. Of these, in all but Ghana and India the year
before that was marked by negative growth. In effect, therefore, in only two countries
out of the total of thirty-three was the economy healthy just before the outbreak of
conflict. Twelve countries recorded negative growth in the year just before the outbreak.
In terms of average growth rates for the five-year period immediately before the outbreak
of conflict, ten out of the thirty-three countries had negative growth rates while four
posted rates of 5 percent or more.
The analysis shows that most countries experienced growth at a rate of between
0 and 5 percent. It should be noted that a growth rate of around 3 percent represents
a sustainable growth rate in developed countries. Thus, judged subjectively by an
analyst from a developed country, a growth rate of around 3 percent would be considered
satisfactory. In a developed economy, if this growth rate is achieved with low inflation
and low unemployment rates, the government ought to be congratulated, and one
can be reasonably certain that such a country is likely to enjoy an enduring government
and a stable political environment. In developed countries with per-capita GDP of
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US$20,000 or so, the sense of affluence will certainly continue even with a relatively
low growth rate, and there is unlikely to be any threat of social disorder unless economic
reverses cause a drastic drop in the rate of growth. But in the case of the countries
with ongoing ethnic conflicts, per-capita GDP hovers around a level of US$2,000,
and in these cases economic growth of 3 percent merely continues this level of poverty,
a very different situation from that of developed countries. Unless there is a period
of sustained economic growth at a considerably higher rate—5 percent or more—it
is impossible for countries with ethnic conflicts and low per-capita GDP to develop
favorable economic conditions. It can be concluded that in two-thirds of the countries
listed in the table, economic conditions were bad just prior to the outbreak of conflicts
and had been so for some time.
Given these facts, it appears that deteriorating economic conditions, or in more
concrete terms, a slowdown of economic growth as the flow indicator of economic
development, is one factor that leads to the outbreak of ethnic conflicts.
Ethnic minorities under analysis: Minorities at riskIn the preceding section, the interrelationship and causality between the economic
environment and ethnic conflicts was examined. So far, only areas with ongoing ethnic
conflicts have been examined, and this places obvious limitations on correctly identifying
specific causes of ethnic conflicts. It is necessary to examine all existing ethnic groups
and examine what other factors cause some ethnic problems to become open conflicts.
But first the concept of an ethnic minority must be clearly defined. The definition
of an ethnic minority, or the concept of ethnicity itself, remains ambiguous at best,
and currently can include a group of only eight individuals in Brazil, for example, or
far larger populations running into tens of millions of people. To include them all in
a clearly defined system of categories will be an extremely difficult task. Given the
scope of the present analysis, however, an examinination of ethnic conflicts in today's
international community can disregard groups as small as those in Brazil, but this
still leaves a large and diverse group that must be defined for proper analysis.
During the latter half of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s, a research
project called "Minorities at Risk" was undertaken by a group of researchers headed
by Professor Ted Robert Gurr of the University of Maryland as part of a master
project launched by the United States Institute for Peace. The research results were
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published as a book under the same title in 1993. In his analysis, Professor Gurr
selected 233 politicized ethnic groups from the worldwide list of all ethnic minorities
and named them "Minorities at Risk," meaning that they are prone to be sources of
ethnic problems. The ethnic conflicts examined in this paper can be defined as violent
manifestations of ethnic problems. Ethnic conflicts arise when a group of people
whose ethnic identity has been strengthened by political and economic inequalities
and by cultural prejudices and discrimination choose to use force against the ruling
group to redress their grievances. Factors that propel ethnic problems into ethnic
conflicts* using some of the "Minorities at Risk" examples as places prone to have
ethnic problems, will be analyzed.
Professor Gurr has developed the following indicators of the "Minorities at Risk"
according to their population sizes, ratios within the total populations (as of 1990),
and other characteristics in eighteen categories. Professor Gurr's eighteen categories
are as follows:
1) group coherence (COHERE)2) group concentration (CONCEN)3) cultural differentials (CULDIF)4) intergroup differentials in economic status or position (ECODIF)5) intergroup differentials in political status or position (POLDIF)6) demographic traits signifying group poverty (DEMSTRESS)7) pressures on group lands and resources (ECOSTRESS)8) economic discrimination (ECODIS)9) political discrimination (POLDIS)
10) loss of historical autonomy (AUTLOST)11) demands for greater economic rights (ECOGR)12) demands for greater social and cultural rights (SOCGR)13) demands for greater political rights (POLRI)14) demands for greater political autonomy (AUTGR)15) conflict with communal groups (COMCON)16) nonviolent group protest (PROT)17) violent group protest (RIOT)18) group rebellion (REBEL).
To these indicators this paper adds two more:
19) annual average economic growth rates from 1980 through 1991, and20) per-capita GDP.
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Two methods of analysis have been used to explore causes that contribute to
ethnic conflicts pertaining to the 233 "Minorities at Risk." The first method is based
on a comparison of the twenty indicators' averages by sorting the "Minorities at
Risk" list with the conflicts list in Appendix 1 into ongoing conflicts (using the
conflict levels 1-4—REP, DIS, LIC, and WAR) and those free from conflict, or conflict
level 0.
Results indicate that statistically meaningful differences (discarding those with
zero differences among the averages) are found in the POLDIF, ECOSTRESS, ECODIS,
AUTLOST, ECOGR, SOCGR, POLRI, AUTGR, COMCON, PROT, RIOT, REBEL,
and per-capita GDP categories. Among these, especially large differences were found
among the average values in the AUTLOST, POLRI, AUTGR, COMCON, REBEL
and per-capita GDP categories. From these results, the indices closely related to
ethnic conflicts are AUTLOST, AUTGR, per-capita GDP, and POLRI.
In the second methodof analysis, correlation coefficients were made by analyzing
the twenty indicators with each other, using the data in the "Minorities at Risk" list.
From an analytical standpoint, no indicators were found to have a close correlation
with the levels of ethnic conflict. Some relatively weak correlations were observed,
however (see Table 4). Of these, REBEL showed the strongest interrelationship with
AUTGR, with a correlation coefficient of .434 (see Table 5). From this result, it is
possible to assume that there is some sort of relationship between ethnic conflicts
and group rebellion, and group rebellion and demand for political autonomy. Correlation
between other indicators and AUTGR makes clear that there is a strong correlation
with AUTLOST (.628). This shows the importance of understanding the problem of
and concepts behind autonomy.
Almost all ethnic conflicts involve a state that exercises or attempts to exercise
Table 4: Correlations with Conflict Level
ConflictLevel
AUTLOST
.221
POLRI
.275
AUTGR
.304
COMCON
.268
PROT
.217
REBEL
.345 .
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Table 5: Correlations with REBEL
REBEL
COMCON
.348
AUTLOST
.344
POLRI
.327
AUTGR
.434
sovereign rights over certain territory and a group that demands autonomy or independence
within that territory. This pattern can also be found in political or colonial conflicts,
and is by no means limited to ethnic conflicts. The Dutch fought against Spain for
many years in order to gain freedom for Holland. In 1776 the American colonies
declared their independence from England and began the War of Independence. During
the nineteenth century some Latin American countries succeeded in gaining independence
from former suzerains Spain and Portugal.
This type of confrontation between the nation-state and ethnic groups within it
stems from the contradiction between the exercise of sovereignty by the state on the
one hand and, on the other, the assertion of principles of national self-determination
by groups of citizens within that state who identify themselves as a separate nation
and feel entitled to form separate state and assert their own sovereign rights on matters
concerning themselves. Most states assert absolute sovereignty over affairs within
their territorial domain, and consider that the principle of national or ethnic self-
determination should be subordinate to national authority in accordance with the
principle of national sovereignty. But since the principle of national or ethnic self-
determination calls for sovereignty for the national or ethnic group, such self-determination
will obviously seriously conflict with the concept of national sovereignty.
As seen in the previous analyses, ethnic conflicts and REBEL, REBEL and AUTGR,
and AUTGR and AUTLOST are closely correlated. Groups that have lost their autonomy
in the past are likely eventually to demand political autonomy and inevitably clash
with government authority because of the contradiction between national or ethnic
self-determination and state sovereignty. The clash may take the form of strongly
anti-government movement, and this could eventually become an armed ethnic conflict
with the state.
138 ASIA-PACIFIC REVIEW • SPRING/SUMMER 1997
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National identity and ethnic-religious conflicts
ConclusionsThese analyses make clear that both economic factors and issues relating to ethnic/
national self-determination play roles in outbreaks of ethnic conflicts. Although it is
easy to draw simplistic cause-and-effect conclusions when economic data from countries
with ethnic conflicts is examined, it must be remembered that social, political, and
economic factors are all intertwined and often have a ripple effect on each other.
Likewise, observers should not be lulled into thinking that the moderate growth rates
considered satisfactory in developed countries will permit economic progress in
developing countries. These countries need sustained, high rates of economic growth
that will substantially improve the living conditions of the populace, including ethnic
minorities, in order to prevent ethnic problems from becoming open conflicts.
For the modern state, the existence of ethnic minorities is often a holdover from
past political or social processes. It is impossible for states with ethnic minorities to
ignore their presence or the historical factors that have produced them. But their
existence does not necessarily lead to ethnic conflicts. By developing and implementing
policies that produce economic growth and better economic conditions, the state can
possibly prevent, or at least ameliorate, ethnic conflicts.
To carry out such policies, however, it will be necessary to use not only the
policy instruments available within the state, but also to effectively utilize the
services of bilateral governmental aid for development and developmental programs
and projects financed by such international agencies as the IMF and the World
Bank. In so doing, it is also important not to treat the economy of the recipient
country as a homogeneous macroeconomic unit, as has often been the case in the
past, but to develop new, multifaceted programs that take into account a number
of internal social, political, and ethnic conditions and problems confronting the
recipient country.
Such recent cases as Bosnia, Somalia, and Rwanda show that it is extremely
difficult and costly both for the victimized country and the international community
to extinguish ethnic conflicts after they have been allowed to flare up. Therefore,
perhaps the most important task before the international community today is to
explore and develop policy measures that will enable us to prevent ethnic conflicts.
An important point to remember in the interim is that, as an old Japanese axiom
says, "the rich will not fight." In other words, the "Minorities at Risk" countries
ASIA-PACIFIC REVIEW • VOLUME 4 NUMBER 1 139
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Jun Osawa
and areas must be on a firm economic footing, with healthy, growing economies, to
prevent them from becoming victims of ethnic conflicts that will only lead them
further down the road to economic, political, and social ruin.
140 ASIA-PACIFIC REVIEW • SPRING/SUMMER 1997
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National identity and ethnic-religious conflicts
Notes1. Stephen Iwan Griffiths, Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict: Threat to European Security,
SIPRI Research Report No. 5 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993).
2. David Welsh, "Domestic Politics and Ethnic Conflict," in Michael E. Brown, ed.,Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton N.J.: Princeton UniversityPress, 1993), p. 43.
3. Market exchange rate (MER) data from Saishin Sekaigensei 1996, (Tokyo: Heibon-sha, 1996). Purchasing power parity (PPP) data from International Institute forStrategic Studies, The Military Balance 1995-1996 (Oxford: Oxford UniversityPress for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1995).
4. Ted Robert Gurr, Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts(Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993).
5. Gurr, Minorities at Risk and Saishin Sekaigensei 1996.
6. An agreement for peace between the Philippines government and the Moro NationalLiberation Front was reached in June 1996.
7. Growth rate data from World Statistical Yearbook 1995 (CD-ROM edition), (UnitedNations, 1995).
8. Market exchange rate (MER) data from Saishin Sekaigensei 1996 (Tokyo: Heibon-sha, 1996). Purchasing power parity (PPP) data from International Institute forStrategic Studies, The Military Balance 1995-1996 (Oxford: Oxford UniversityPress for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1995).
9. Gurr, Minorities at Risk. The statistical analysis by the author which follows usesGurr's data, which appear in Tables A.1 to A. 18 in the Appendix to Minorities atRisk,pp. 326-363. Space constraints prevent reproduction of the data here.
10. Masayuki Yamanouchi, Sekai no Shukyo Minzoku Chizu [Ethnic and ReligiousMap of the World] (Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 1996), pp. 15-16.
ASIA-PACIFIC REVIEW • VOLUME 4 NUMBER 1 141
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Appendx 1: Serious ethnic conficts in the 1990s
Area Country Groups and Issues of Conflict
Europe
Group Conflict Scateof Conflict Since Deatis Deatstype1 type2 cortfirf type4 (SIPRI) (Gurr)
Other comments
Azerbaijan
AsiA
-PA
CI
2n
1
SPRIT
s.onc
1ER IS
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Bosnia
Croatia
Georgia
Georgia
Russia
Moldovi
Serbia
Russia
Ukraine
NorthenIreland
Spain
Iran
Iran
Armenians fighting for independence of ETHNATNagorno-Karabakh enclave
Serbians and Croats seek to partition ETHNATBosnia, eliminate Muslims from theirregions
Serbians sought autonomy and to control ETHNATKrajina
Russian-backed Abkhazians wonautonomy
ETHNAT
North Ossetians seek union with South ETHNATOssetians in Georgia
Russian-backed Slavic minority ETHNATestablished autonomous trans-Oniestrrepublic
Protest in Kosovo by ethnic Albanians ETHNATrepressed by Serbia
Chechens seek independence ETHNAT
Ukraine Russians seek independence of Klimia ETHNAT
Northern Catholic Irish Republican Army has fought ETHNATI l against Protestant militants and for union
with Republic of Ireland
Militant Basques carry out terrorcampaign for independence
ETHNAT
Persecution of Baha'is has declined from RELIGits peak in early 1980s
WAR
WAR
LIC
WAR
South Ossetians fighting for union with ETHNAT LICNorth Ossetians in Russia
LIC
LIC
REP
WAR
REP
LIC
LIC
REP
1988 10,000
T 1991 20,000-50,000
1991
1992 2,500
1992
1992
1992
1992
1995
1995
Iraq-backed religious group attackingfrom Iraq
COMCON WAR
1968
1979
1970
15,000 Religious differences. Islamic sta-in Middle East support AzerbaijatCease-fire agreement concluded1994
200,000 Peace agreement concluded 19!NATO peacekeepers in place
50,000 Croatian Army suppressed Kraijir1995
3,000
700
300
1,000
200
About 30,000 deaths. Russian Asuppressed rebellion
T 1969 4,700 3,000 Religious group
1,000
300
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Area Country Groups and Issues of Conflict
n3nJOtn<
1•
Ocm
•zimm73
Group Conflict Scale Conflict Since Deaths Deathstype1 type2 of type4 (SIPRI) (Gurr)
conflict3
Other comments
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Middle Eastand N. Africa
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Iran
Iraq
Iraq
Turkey
Israel(WestBankand Gaza)Bahrain
Yemen
Morocco
Algeria
Afganistan
Bangladesh
Myanmar
India
India
India
Rebellion by Kurds wanting autonomy ETHNAT DIShas been largely suppressed
Supporters of 1991 Shiite rebellion RELIG REPcontinue to suffer reprisals
Rebel Kurds established autonomous ETHNAT LICregion with Allied protection
Terrorist campaign by Kurdish militants ETHNAT WARseeking independence
Palestinians used violent protest to seek ETHNAT LICautonomy in the period 1987-1993
Majority Sunni people rebel against RELIG DISShiite government
Civil war between former North Yemen COMCON WARand South Yemen
Western Sahara independence ETHNAT/ LICmovement defeated INDIG
Muslim fundamentalists have been RELIG LICsuppressed
Civil war among factions based on ETHNAT/ WARPashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks COMCON
Chittagong hill peoples resist settlers from INDIG LIClowlands, demand autonomy
Autonomy rebellion by Karens, Shan, INDIG WARKachin, Mon, Arakanese, other hill andtribal peoples
Pakistan-supported Kashmiris fighting for ETHNAT WARindependence
Shik insurgents fighting for an ETHNAT WARindependent Khalistan since early 1980s
Autonomy rebellions in Assam by INDIG/ WARTripuras, Santals, Nagas, others ETHNAT
T
G
1979
1980
1979
1984 13,000
3,000-5,000
20,000-50,000
180,000-250,000
11,000
T mid- 12,500 1,700 Israel accepted autonomy of PLC1980s
1994
T 1994 1,500-7,000
1975 15,000
1993 25,000
1992 14,000 10,000
1975
[1948]1993
1990
1981
[1952]1988-1992
3,000-3,500
17,000
9,000
24,000
24,000
20,000-30,000
20,000-50,000
10,000-16,000
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Area Country Groups and Issues of Conflict Group Conflict Scale Conflict Since Deaths Deaths Other commentstype1 type2 of type4 (SIPRI) (Gurr)
conflict3
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
India Hindu nationalists provoke riotous clashes RELIGwith Muslims
Pakistan Small-scale rebellion in Baluchistan
LIC
ETHNAT DIS
1991
1972
2,000-3,000
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Central andSouth Asia
Pakistan Minor insurgency, rioting in Sindis COMCON DIS
Sri Lanka Militant Tamils fighting for an ETHNAT WARindependent Tamil state
Tajikistan Rebellion by Muslim guerrillas RELLIG WAR
[1972]1992
1985
1992
27,000
20,000-50,000
9,000
50,000100,000
Central andSouth Asia
Bhutan Dominant Drukpas expel protesting COMCON REPNepalese
1991
Asia Pacific Cambodia Guerrilla fighting by Khmer Rouge
Asia Pacific China Suppression of Tibetans who seekrestoration of autonomy lost in 1951
COMCON LIC
ETHNAT REP
G [1979] 25,0001991 since197
9
1959 100,000
Asia Pacific China Sporadic pro-autonomy activity among ETHNAT/ LICMuslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in Xinjiang INDIG
1980 1,000-2,000
Asia Pacific Fiji
•n
nSO
in
Fijian minority used military rule to repress COMCON LICIndian minority
Asia Pacific Indonesia Suppression of East Timor rebels fighting ETHNAT REPf
Asia Pacific Indonesia
Asia Pacific Indonesia
for independence
Suppression of West Irian (Papuan)peoples resisting Indonesian control
Suppression of Aceh rebels in NorthSumatra who seek autonomy
ETHNAT REP
ETHNAT REP
1976
1963
1975
15,000-16,000
200,000
5,000-32,000
10,000-20.000
inc22m50
Asia Pacific Papua-NewGuinea
Rebellion for independence onBougainville Island
ETHNAT LIC
Asia Pacific Philippines Minor insurgency by Moros (Muslims) who ETHNATfought for independence in 1970s andgained limited autonomy in 1990
LIC
1988 1.000
50,000
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Area Country Groups and Issues of Conflict
3o
•
VO
LU
l
s.m•t-ZU
MB
ER
145
Asia Pacific
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Africa south ofthe Sahara
Philippines
Angola
Burundi
Chad
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Senegal
SierraLeone
Insurgency by NPA (New People's Army)
Mbundu-Ovimbundu rivalry underliesprotracted civil war that resumed in 1992after collapse of peace pact
Formerly dominant Tutsi minority in 1993massacred supporters of Hutu-dominatedregime
Current phase in protracted civil war pitsAnakaza against Bideyet peoples
Rebellion as Afars challenge Somali-dominated government
Oromo have resumed insurgency againstrevolutionary government that took powerin 1991
Conflicts between tribes in north-easternGhana
President Moi prompted his Kalenjinsupporters to attack other peoples in theRift Valley
Ethnic rivalries fuel a civil war nowchecked by peacekeepers and 1995peace accord
Insurgency by Tuareg nomads seekingautonomous region
Insurgency by Tuareg nomads seekingautonomous region
Deadly Muslim-Christian clashes in east-central region
Exiled Tutsi minority fought againstrepressive Hutu regime
Autonomy rebellion in Casamanceprovince
Rebellion by RUF
COMCON
COMCON
COMCON/ETHCLS
COMCON
COMCON
COMCON
COMCON
COMCON
INDIG/ETHNAT
RELIG
COMCON/ETHCLS
ETHNAT
COMCON
Group Conflict Scale Conflict Since Deaths Deathstype1 type2 of type4 (SIPRI) (Gurr)
conflict3
Other comments
LIC
WAR
WAR
WAR
WAR
LIC
LIC
WAR
LIC
LIC
WAR
LIC
LIC
G
G
1986
1990
1990
1986
1982
1995
21,000-25,000
1975 110,000
1988
1979
1991
1963
1994
1992
500,000 Cease-fire agreement concluded1995. UN peacekeeping operatic
100,000
100,000
1,000 Peace agreement concluded in1994.
1,000-2,000
1989 20,000 150,000 11 attempts at peace since 1989Abuja accord signed August 199
1,000
11,000
1990 5,500 3,500
500
2
a.
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Area Country Groups and Issues of Conflict
4ON
>
n
m<
C/3
Africa south of Sudanthe Sahara
Grouptype1
ETHNAT/COMCON
COMCON
ETHNAT
COMCON
COMCON
IND1G
INDIG
INDIG
COMCON
Conflicttype2
WAR
LIC
WAR
LIC
LIC
REP
LIC
LIC
LIC
Scaleofconflict3
X
X
X
X
X
Conflicttype4
G
T
G
G
G
Since
1988
1989
1983
1986
1992
1972
1980
1994
Deaths(SIPRl)
77,000
46,300
28,000
Deaths(Gurr)
350,000
14,000
1,000,0001,500,000
12,000
5,00020,000
150,000
30,000
1,000
Other comments
Africa south of Somalia Isaaq clan seeks independence forthe Sahara Northern Somalia since 1991, other clans
battle in southAfrica south of South Four years of communal war betweenthe Sahara Africa ANC and Zulu supporters prior to 1994
electionsMuslim government broke agreementwith southerners leading to renewal ofcivil war; in 1993 factional fighting beganamong southerners
Africa south of Uganda Fighting between Baganda-dominatedthe Sahara army and northern Acholi and Langi
rebelsAfrica south of Zaire Multiple communal rebellions, clashes,the Sahara ethnic cleaning campaigns in Northern
Kivu, Shaba, between Luba and Lunda,others
Americas Guatemala Mayans victimized in governmentcampaign against rural peoplessuspected of supporting leftist insurgents
Americas Peru Indigenous peoples have been forced tosupport leftist Sendero Luminosoguerrillas
Americas Mexico Well organized indigenous rebellion withleftist leaders in Chiapas state
Americas Colombia Rebellion by leftist guerrillas
Notes1. Type of ethnopolitical groups are based on classifications used by Gurr, with some modifications by the author.
ETHNAT: Ethnonationalists: large, regionally concentrated peoples with history of organized political autonomy who pursue separatist objectivesINDIG: Indigenous peoples: conquered descendants of original inhabitants of a country who typically live in peripheral regions and have cultures sharply distinct from dominant groupsETHCLS: Ethnoclasses: ethnically or culturally distinct minorities, descended from immigrants or slaves, who are economically stratifiedCOMCON: Communal contenders: culturally distinct peoples, tribes or clans in heterogeneous societies who hold or seek a share in state power
2. Conflict types based on classification used by Gurr, with some modifications by the author.WAR: WarLIC: Low-intensity conflictDIS: Serious disputeREP: Serious dispute in which most violence is a consequence of state repression
3. "X" indicates large-scale conflict, based on classification used by Sollenberg and Wallensteen.4. Conflict type based on classification used by Sollenberg and Wallensteen.
T" indicates contest concerns control over territory (interstate conflict, secession or autonomy)"G" indicates contest concerns control over government (type of political system, a change of central government or in its composition)
SourcesTed Robert Gurr, Ethnic Conflict in World Politics (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994).-~, "Peoples against States: Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World System," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 38, No. 3 (September 1994), pp. 347-377.—, Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993).
3
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National identity and ethnic-religious conflicts
ASIA-PACIFIC REVIEW • VOLUME 4 NUMBER 1 147
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Appendix 2: Ethnic conflict and growth rates
Growth rates
Country
Afghanistan
Algeria
Azerbaijan
Bahrain
Bhutan
Bosnia
Burundi
Croatia
Djibouti
Georgia
Georgia
Ghana
India
Groups and issues of conflict
Civil war among factions based on Pashtuns, Tajiks,Uzbeks
Muslim fundamentalists have been suppressed
Armenians fighting for independence for Nagorno-Karabakh enclave
Majority Sunni people rebel against Shiite government
Dominant Drukpas expel protesting Nepalese
Serbians and Croats seek to partition Bosnia, eliminateMuslims from their regions
Formerly dominant Tutsi minority in 1993 massacres ofsupporters of Hutu-dominated regime
Ethnic Serbians sought autonomy and to control Krajina
Rebellion as Afars challenge Somali-dominatedgovernment
Russian-backed Abkhazians won autonomy
South Ossetians fighting for union with North Ossetians inRussia
Conflicts between tribes in north-eastern Ghana
Pakistan-supported Kashmiris fighting for independence
Conflicttype
WAR
LIC
WAR
DIS
REP
WAR
WAR
LIC
WAR
WAR
LIC
LIC
WAR
Since
1992
1993
1988-1994
1994
1991
1991-1995
1988
1991-1995
1991-1994
1992
1992
1994
1990
Last yr beforeconflict
7.60
2.25
5.91
4.00
4.90
-23.20
4.09
-23.20
8.91
-20.29
-20.29
5.00
5.42
Av. for 5 yrsbefore conflict
-4.22
1.49
4.11
4.64
7.73
-4.34
3.70
-4.60
2.69
-3.35
-3.35
4.75
6.14
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Country
India
Kenya
Liberia
Mali
Mexico
Moldova
Niger
Nigeria
Papua-New Guinea
Russia
Russia
Rwanda
Serbia
Groups and issues of conflict
Hindu nationalists provoke riotous clashes with Muslims
President Moi prompted his Kalenjin supporters to attackother peoples in the Rift Valley
Ethnic rivalries fuel a civil war now checked bypeacekeepers and 1995 peace accords
Insurrection by Tuareg nomads seeking autonomousregion
Well organized indigenous rebellion with leftist leaders inChiapas state
Russian-backed Slavic minority established autonomoustrans-Dniestr republic
Insurrection by Tuareg nomads seeking autonomous region
Deadly Muslim-Christian clashes in east-central region
Rebellion for independence on Bougainville Island
North Ossetians seek union with South Ossetians inGeorgia
Chechens seek independence
Exiled Tutsi minority wars against a repressive Hutu regime
Protest in Kosovo by ethnic Albanians repressed by Serbia
Conflicttype
LIC
LIC
WAR
LIC
LIC
LIC
LIC
LIC
LIC
LIC
WAR
WAR
REP
Since
1991
1992
1989
1990
1994
1992
1990
1986
1988
1992
1995
1990
1992
Growth
Last yr beforeconflict
5.65
1.67
2.83
7.49
0.80
-12.59
2.57
-0.70
2.77
-0.92
-15.00
3.25
-29.93
rates
Av. for 5 yrsbefore conflict
6.18
4.54
0.17
6.00
2.69
3.57
2.76
0.19
2.55
-0.65
-7.03
2.47
-10.84
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Growth rates
Country
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Yemen
Zaire
Groups and issues of conflict
Rebellion by RUF
1991 Isaaq clan declares independence for NorthernSomalia; other clans battle in south
4 years of communal warfare between ANC and Zulusupporters prior to 1994 elections
Rebellion by Muslim guerillas
Ethnic Russians seek independence for Klimia
Civil war between former North Yemen and South Yemen
Multiple communal rebellions, clashes, ethnic cleansingcampaigns in Northern Kivu, Shaba, between Luba andLunda, others
Conflicttype
LIC
WAR
LIC
WAR
REP
WAR
LIC
Since
1995
1988
1989
1992
1995
1994
1992
Last yr beforeconflict
3.60
10.09
4.20
-3.47
-23.00
2.50
-2.80
Av. for 5 yrsbefore conflict
1.49
1.99
2.04
2.49
-7.69
-1.70
0.79
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