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Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through SimulationValue Through SimulationValue Through SimulationValue Through Simulation
February 17th, 2010
AgendaLeveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation
February 17th, 20108am PST (Seattle) / 11am EST (New York) / 4pm GMT (London)
Welcome & Introduction (Overview of NAFEMS Activities)
Matthew Ladzinski, NAFEMS North America
Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation
Marc Halpern, Ph.D., Gartner
Q&A Session
Panel
Closing
Ladzinski Halpern
An Overview of NAFEMS ActivitiesAn Overview of NAFEMS Activities
THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONTHE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONFOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS FOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
An Overview of NAFEMS ActivitiesAn Overview of NAFEMS Activities
Matthew LadzinskiMatthew LadzinskiNAFEMS North AmericaNAFEMS North America
Planned ActivitiesPlanned Activities� Webinars
� New topic each month!� Visualization – March 2010� “Accepted Practices in FEA” – April 2010 (NAFEMS India Webinar)
� Recent webinars:� Product Performance Simulation in the Year 2020 – February 2010� What is V&V� How to Ensure that CFD for Industrial Applications is Fit for Purpose� Practical CFD � Composite FE Analysis� 10 Ways to Increase Your Professional Value in the Engineering Industry� Dynamic FE Analysis� Modal Analysis in Virtual Prototyping and Product Validation� Pathways to Future CAE Technologies and their Role in Ambient Intelligent Environments� Computational Structural Acoustics: Technology, Trends and Challenges� FAM: Advances in Research and Industrial Application of Experimental Mechanics
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
� FAM: Advances in Research and Industrial Application of Experimental Mechanics� CCOPPS: Power Generation: Engineering Challenges of a Low Carbon Future� Practical CFD Analysis� Complexity Management� CCOPPS: Creep Loading of Pressurized Components – Phenomena and Evaluation� Multiphysics Simulation using Implicit Sequential Coupling� CCOPPS: Fatigue of Welded Pressure Vessels� Applied Element Method as a Practical Tool for Progressive Collapse Analysis of Structures� A Common Sense Approach to Stress Analysis and Finite Element Modeling� The Interfacing of FEA with Pressure Vessel Design Codes (CCOPPS Project)� Multiphysics Simulation using Directly Coupled-Field Element Technology� Methods and Technology for the Analysis of Composite Materials� Simulation Process Management� Simulation-supported Decision Making (Stochastics)� Simulation Driven Design (SDD) Findings
To register for upcoming webinars, or to view a past webinar, please visit: www.nafems.org/events/webinars
Established in 2009
Next courses:
Dynamic FE Analysis – January 12th, 2010 (six-week course)
Non-Linear Analysis – March 2nd, 2010 (four-week course)
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
Non-Linear Analysis – March 2nd, 2010 (four-week course)
Composite FE Analysis – April 13th, 2010 (four-week course)
Simulation-Supported Engineering – TBA (four-week course)
Proposed course offerings:
Optimization – Summer 2010 (four-week course)
For more information, visit: www.nafems.org/e-learning
NAFEMS EventsNAFEMS Events
Multiple opportunities to attend conferences, seminars/workshops and training courses
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
Let us know if you would like to schedule an on-site training course
For more information, please visit: www.nafems.org
Leveraging CAE for Greater Leveraging CAE for Greater
Business Value Through Business Value Through
SimulationSimulation
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner
audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected,
and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Marc Halpern, P.E., Ph.D.Research DirectorManufacturing Advisory ServiceGartner, Inc.
Email: marc.halpern@gartner.com
A Harbinger of Things to Come?
“After a two-month review, Toyota concluded that its product-development process was fraying at the edges due to its
JANUARY 27, 2010, Toyota Heir Faces
Crisis at the Wheel, Wall Street Journal
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82/17/2010
development process was fraying at the edges due to its emphasis on its global expansion. Mr. Watanabe noted in an interview at the time that in some cases company engineers may have rushed out products without conducting enough quality checks, such as building physical prototypes, and relying too
much on computer simulations. Toyota tapped the brakes
on that practice.”
Topics to Discuss
• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?
• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?
• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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92/17/2010
to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?
Topics to discuss
• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?
• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?
• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>
102/17/2010
to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?
Simulation Builds on CAE for Critical Product
Development Applications
CAECAE
SimulationSimulation
Software support for engineering Software support for engineering processes and activities, processes and activities, particularly engineering analysis to particularly engineering analysis to certify designscertify designs
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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certify designscertify designs
Modeling and predicting Modeling and predicting behavior among objects in behavior among objects in physical systems including physical systems including interactions with their interactions with their environment and making the environment and making the feedback more “lifelike.”feedback more “lifelike.”
Simulation Builds on CAE for Critical Product
Development Activities
CAECAE
SimulationSimulation
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Simulation Footprint is Broader Than CAE
Category CAE Simulation
Key Markets Discrete manufacturers, process manufacturers, architectural engineering and construction
All industries
Scope Primarily to evaluate engineering-related design choices and code compliance
Understand implications of design on all product lifecycle activities
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132/17/2010
choices and code compliance
Stakeholders Mostly engineering. Some manufacturing, quality managers, and regulatory personnel
All CAE stakeholders plus marketing, sales, all manufacturing, customers, even executives
Perceived benefits Design insights, reduces product lifecycle costs that have engineering implications. Create design knowledge without prototypes and physical testing. Improves product quality
Enhances all CAE benefits, exposes and tests more assumptions, communicates more effectively to a broader audience of product lifecycle stakeholders
Simulation in Manufacturing
Improving Design of Improving Design of Factory AutomationFactory Automation
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Improving Ergonomics Improving Ergonomics of Assemblyof Assembly
Courtesy: Dassault SystemesCourtesy: Dassault Systemes
Courtesy: Dassault SystemesCourtesy: Dassault Systemes
Simulation in Construction
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•• 55--8% savings on $1.5 Billion US construction project8% savings on $1.5 Billion US construction project
•• 25% time reduction25% time reduction
Courtesy: AutodeskCourtesy: Autodesk
Simulation in Retail
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Why Should We Care About Simulation?
• Vendors, particularly large PLM vendors are promoting the hype with the real benefits. Businesses should set the right expectations
• There are real benefits but the learning curve is long. It will be too hard to catch up when it matters competitively
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• The enhanced realism will obfuscate missed or faulty critical assumptions, particularly when CAE is involved
• Businesses can introduce even more “waste” into product development than poorly-practiced CAE unless they exercise the right focus, strategy, and best practices
Topics to discuss
• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?
• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?
• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>
182/17/2010
to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?
Predictions from the 1980s vs. Today’s Realities
1980s Prediction Today’s Reality
Supercomputers will be available
on the desktop
Dramatic reduction in physical
testing
The mainstream of designers
Fulfilled in terms of 1980s supercomputers
Reductions in select industries for select purposes
Only 1 out of every 10 CAD
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192/17/2010
The mainstream of designers
perform analysis
Rapid growth of automated design
through optimization
High fidelity multi-physics will be
broadly adopted
Simulation will proactively guide a
significant percentage of design
Only 1 out of every 10 CAD seats is sold for this purpose
Actual use is niche
Multi-physics use is relatively narrow and selective
Largely unfulfilled given scope and urgency of design decisions
Sources of "Waste" in Product/Process
Design
Discovery and
information Design-related
Design-related
manufacturing defects
(17%)
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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202/17/2010
information
search time (42%)
Lack of design/
information reuse (18%)
Unnecessary over-
design (8%)
Design-related
product/process
defects (15%)
Source: A.T. Kearney, The Line on Design, 2003, (for Tier 1 automotive suppliers)
Evidence of Waste in CAE
“In a typical case, an engineer might be doing structural analysis of a vehicle subsystem. He would become absorbed in the details of computer modeling - analyzing the tradeoffs of the CAE modeling options he could use. The substantial time and money to do his computer-based study was essentially wasted. Worse yet, the initial results were wrong. He only needed to do a simple hand calculation to get the essential information to make a meaningful and reliable design decision.S.In 35 years, I saw quite
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make a meaningful and reliable design decision.S.In 35 years, I saw quite a few of these.” - Retired Automotive Engineering Manager
“After investing millions of dollars over 5 years on this CAE program, our CEO asked me to report the tangible benefits this investment delivered. Our CAE team was incapable of making a compelling case to continue making such investments.”- Senior Executive, Defense Electronics Manufacturer
Analysis of Major Automotive Recalls: 2005-2007 Suggests Lifecycle Simulation Priorities
10E4
10E5
10E6
10E7
Nu
mb
er
of
Veh
icle
s R
ecall
ed
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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222/17/2010
0
10
10E2
10E3
0 5 10 15Time (Years) Between Model Introduction and Recall
Nu
mb
er
of
Veh
icle
s R
ecall
ed
Design Issue
Source:Gartner, 2007
Design and/or Manufacturing Issue
Manufacturing Issue
Lessons Learned
• C-level executives in most manufacturing industries are less educated about CAE than previously realized
• The CAE community is risk-averse and slow to change
• The CAE community, users and R&D professionals, need to learn more and think more “integratively” about product lifecycle demands
• The strategic importance of CAE in large enterprise-PLM vendors gets diminished due to overarching business demands
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• CAE technology advances succeed commercially when users perceive they will streamline existing processes and not require substantial change
• Manufacturers adopt advanced simulation technologies when the cost and time for physical testing is significantly higher than computing resources and expertise
• Manufacturers typically behave more tactically than strategically, making investments to address urgent situations
Accelerators and Inhibitors Shaping the Simulation Landscape
Accelerators
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Inhibitors
Accelerators and Inhibitors Shaping the Simulation Landscape
Accelerators
Changing
nature of
products
Increase in
regulatory
demandsLiability
risksCheap
compute
power
Global competition
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252/17/2010
Inhibitors
Time/cost of
physical tests
products
Accelerators and Inhibitors Shaping the Simulation Landscape
Accelerators
Changing
nature of
products
Increase in
regulatory
demandsLiability
risksCheap
compute
power
Global competition
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>
262/17/2010
Inhibitors
Time/cost of
physical tests
products
Liability
risks
Insufficient skilled resources
Insufficient senior management support
Fear and cost of change
Other PLM vendor priorities
Other CIO priorities
Topics to discuss
• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?
• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?
• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable mainstream simulation?
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>
272/17/2010
to enable mainstream simulation?
• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?
Broadly Recognized
The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt
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282/17/2010
Evolving
Nascent-
Emerging
TransformationalSignificantIncremental
Impact on Design Success
Maturity
Moderate
Highest
Lowest
Challenge to
Adopt
Broadly Recognized
The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt
Multiphysics
simulation
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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292/17/2010
Evolving
Nascent-
Emerging
TransformationalSignificantIncremental
Impact on Design Success
Maturity
Moderate
Highest
Lowest
Challenge to
Adopt
Systems
simulation
Stochastic
simulation
Complexity
analysis
simulation
Broadly Recognized
The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt
Multiphysics
simulationError estimation
Analytics
Simulation/test data
management
Optimization
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302/17/2010
Evolving
Nascent-
Emerging
TransformationalSignificantIncremental
Impact on Design Success
Maturity
Moderate
Highest
Lowest
Challenge to
Adopt
Systems
simulation
Stochastic
simulation
Complexity
analysis
simulationAdvanced
materials
modeling
MEMS/nano
simulation
Error estimation
and control
Broadly Recognized
The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt
Multiphysics
simulationError estimation
Analytics
Simulation/test data
management
Optimization
CAD integration
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312/17/2010
Evolving
Nascent-
Emerging
TransformationalSignificantIncremental
Impact on Design Success
Maturity
Moderate
Highest
Lowest
Challenge to
Adopt
Systems
simulation
Stochastic
simulation
Complexity
analysis
simulationAdvanced
materials
modeling
MEMS/nano
simulation
Error estimation
and control
Multi-sensory
feedback
Adapt gaming
technology
Topics to discuss
• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?
• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?
• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>
322/17/2010
to enable valuable mainstream simulation?
• What are the best strategies and practices to adopt and use simulation technology?
The Lean Business Model is the Fastest to Success
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332/17/2010
Can you win the race carrying excess baggage?
The Soft Stuff of Lean Will Be the Tough Stuff
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342/17/2010
� Commitment
� Common Corporate Strategy
� Common Focus and Goals
� Leadership
� Balanced Teams
� Objectivity
Lean Means Directly Linking Market
Priorities to Product Development Priorities
Voice of
Customer
Performance, Cost
Manufacturability
Serviceability
Define
Technical
Specifications
Requirements
Analysis and
Management
Identify
Critical
Parameters
Validate
Measurement
System
Improve
Design
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352/17/2010
Voice of
Market Meets
Targets?
Critical Parameter Management
No
Yes
SpecificationsManagement
Identify
Parameter
Relationships
System
Deploy
Design
Map the Applications to the Mission
Voice of
Customer
Performance, Cost
Manufacturability
Serviceability
Define
Technical
Specifications
Requirements
Analysis and
Management
Identify
Critical
Parameters
Validate
Measurement
System
Improve
Design
Stochastic
SimulationSystems
Engineering
Systems
Engineering
Simulation
Software
Failure Modes and
Manufacturing
Process Mgmt.
Analyze Complexity
and Variance
Aftermarket
Product Analytics
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362/17/2010
Voice of
Market Meets
Targets?
Critical Parameter Management
No
Yes
SpecificationsManagement
Identify
Parameter
Relationships
System
Deploy
Design
Simulation
Software
Engineering
Design for Quality
"Cockpit"
Failure Modes and
Effects AnalysisRequirements
Management
Cost
Analysis
Test Data
Mgmt.
Analyze Complexity
and Variance
Sweat the Details!
Challenger Disaster Challenger Disaster (January, 1986)(January, 1986)
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The Sinking of the Sleipner A The Sinking of the Sleipner A Offshore Platform Offshore Platform (August, 1991)(August, 1991)
Sweat the Details – Priority CAE Questions
• Does a simulation model and the underlying math adequately capture the physics of the question being studied?
• How much approximation is good enough?
• What critical parameters matter most for good
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• What critical parameters matter most for good decision making?
• How can the results be validated?
• What tradeoffs are acceptable to deliver timely results?
Sweat the Details: Example - The Girkmann Problem
Illustrates that Element Formulations Still Matter
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Girkmann: Flächentragwerke. Springer Girkmann: Flächentragwerke. Springer Verlag, 1956.Verlag, 1956.
Timoshenko and WoinowskyTimoshenko and Woinowsky--Krieger: Krieger: Theory of Plates and Shells, 1959.Theory of Plates and Shells, 1959.
Courtesy of Dr. Barna Szabo, Wahrington University and ESRDCourtesy of Dr. Barna Szabo, Wahrington University and ESRD
Sweat the Details: Example - Simple or Not So
Simple Beam Analysis?
LL
PPtt
••Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about
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••Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about axial stretching?axial stretching?
••Is the ratio L/t low enough that we should care about Is the ratio L/t low enough that we should care about shear stresses?shear stresses?
••Do stress concentrations at each end matter for this Do stress concentrations at each end matter for this analysis?analysis?
••Are idealized end conditions valid?Are idealized end conditions valid?
A Better Paradigm: Simulation and CAE are
Part of a Knowledge Generating Ecosystem
• Simulation expands the value of CAE across a broader community of business stakeholders
• Simulation delivers quality, time, and cost value similar to CAE if used correctly.
• The digital nature of simulation should make knowledge
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• The digital nature of simulation should make knowledge capture and reuse efficient and effective
• Lean thinking with a focus on “critical to quality” will be essential to success
• Simulation should be incorporated into a broader quality IT “ecosystem” to have its maximum impact
QuestionsQuestions
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
Website: www.nafems.org
Thank you!
THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONTHE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONFOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS COMMUNITYFOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS COMMUNITY
Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality
matthew.ladzinski@nafems.org
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