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Morgan Stanley Airbus Commercial Update
Mark Pearman Wright
Head of Corporate & Investor Marketing
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
V5
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Gross order comparison over the last 15 years
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 10 years
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Airbus
Boeing
August
Annual gross orders
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Deliveries comparison over the last 15 years
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 10 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Airbus
Boeing
Annual deliveries
Smooth production increase following order intake
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus is the market leader
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Delivery leadership follows order leadership
Gross orders
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Deliveries
Orders
% share since 1995
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2012 Airbus orders, deliveries and backlog
A320 Family 346 285 3,398 current engine option 143 285 1,939
new engine option 203 1,459
A330/A340 49 65 325
A350 XWB 16 558
A380 4 14 176
Total 415 364 4,457
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Data end August 2012
Orders Deliveries Backlog
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Order backlogs
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Combined backlog of 8,510 aircraft
Data end August 2012
Airbus Boeing
A320ceo 1,939 737NG 2,111
A320neo 1,459 737 MAX 649
A330/A340 325 767/777 414
A350 XWB 558 787 800
A380 176 747 79
4,457 4,053
The market-leading A380 Five years in Service
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A380 values steadily increasing
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Average of first half published values of : ASG, AVITAS, AVAC, ASCEND and MBA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
New Aircraft Base Value evolution from 2008-2012
Datum
777-300ER
A380
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Capital markets embrace A380 value
Emirates A380 financing deal (July 2012)
• Debt-financing for 4 A380s sourced with EETC in US capital markets
• Doric Alpha: borrower and issuer of equipment notes, leasing aircraft to Emirates.
• First EETC using A380 as collateral
• Very successful (3 times oversubscribed)
• A3 rating from Moodys
• All A380s in service are financed by usual market sources
Banks and capital markets see the A380 as a strong asset
A330 – A350XWB: Complementary twins
Data to end August 2012
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
A330: ~1,200 firm orders
A350XWB: 558 firm orders
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A350-800 to -900
Alafco 12
TAM 12
ILFC 6
Grupo Synergy 10
CIT 3
TAP 12
Asiana 2
Total 57
787-8 to -9 conversions
Air New Zealand 4
ALAFCO 4
LCAL 5
Continental 12
ILFC 40
Vietnam Airlines 16
Air China 15
ANA 19
KAL 10
JAL 10
Total 135
A350 XWB / 787 order conversions
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
A definite trend towards larger aircraft
End August 2012
188 aircraft upsized so far
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A350-1000: Optimised dimensions
Designed as an intermediate twin-aisle
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Wing span and aircraft length: 2 key dimensions
Code E capability ensures access to more than 1200 gates at the top 50 airports
Only the larger A380 is an efficient user of the fewer Code F gates * ICAO airport compatibility regulations
76m*
10.5m*
65m*
7.5m*
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A330, A350 XWB families are complementary
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Complete fleet solutions, matching network requirements today and tomorrow
Seats
Range
A350-1000
A350-900
A330-300
A330-200
A350-800
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A330 – a record breaker
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
More than 780 A330s sold since 787 launch*
Open demand for ~500 A330s thru’ 2020 *26th of April 2004. Net orders as of end August 2012
Source GMF 2012 – Open Demand beyond: current backlogs & for new models maximum production capacity
781
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A330 Enhancements beyond 235t MTOW
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
400nm more range, 2% less fuel,
1,300t less CO2 per year per aircraft
Increase to 240t MTOW Aerodynamic package
Fuel burn reduction 1%
Load Alleviation
Function
Engine fuel burn
improvement 1%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
3 years later 0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
A330, The right aircraft, right now!
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
A330 can generate significantly more value than a 787-9
Based on 15 year period to 2025, 0% fuel escalation, 3% cost escalation, 2% revenue escalation, 10% discount rate, excludes ownership
75% passenger load factor, 50% of cargo capacity is filled, 2.5 USD/USg Fuel price, 2000nm sector, Typical Airline 2012 rules
2027
Delta PV
+$63m
Cumulative contribution to profit ($ millions)
The best keeps getting better
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A320 Family – Fleet evolution by region
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
3,400 order backlog
Total: 8,600 firm orders Source: Ascend Online, Airbus. Data as of End December 2011. In service and stored Passenger fleet.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
China
Asia
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Latin America and Caribbean
Australasia
North America
A320Family fleet size evolution by region
5,200
deliveries
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
90% single-aisle fleets still with their initial operators
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Owned Leased Owned Leased
1 operator
2 operators
3 operators
4+ operators
Page 21
Ascend Online, Airbus. Data as of End December 2011. In service passenger fleet.
Owned includes finance leased
All data cleaned for mergers
Similar numbers of aircraft have moved from their initial operator despite a larger A320 fleet with more on operating lease
In-service fleet (Year of Manufacturer 1997-2011)
Fle
et S
ize
/ s
tatu
s e
nd
of 2
011
99%
77% Still at 1st
operator Still at 1st
operator
Single aisle movements and lease placements - CSMI - Ref. PR1247291 - Issue 1
98%
Still at 1st
operator
81%
Still at 1st
operator
Same
behaviour
as 737NG
Better
retention at
1st lessee
737NG series A320 Family
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Sharklets flight test campaign progressing well
Sharklets ahead of target
with 1st delivery Dec 2012
• MSN1 flight test completed with 380 hrs
• Line-fit A320 CFM & IAE flight test
nearing completion after 170 hrs
• A320CFM Type Certification
end November
• Next: A321CFM 1st flight October
A319CFM 1st flight November
More
range
+100nm
Better take-off
More
payload
+500kg
Fuel
savings
up to 3.5%
Lower cost
Less CO2
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Strong customer endorsement for Sharklets
Orders from 40 customers worldwide
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The A320neo is real
The A320neo is on track
Sharklets New engines
• More than 500hrs of flight testing
• Fuel savings confirmed
•1st pylon part produced
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 26
A320neo – 15% Fuel burn improvement...
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
… across the whole Family
• Double digit reduction in fuel burn
A319 A319neo A320 A320neo A321neo A321
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Cash Operating Cost Comparison
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
Which aircraft is 20% more expensive per seat
than the A321neo? 3000nm, 2012 marketing standard, Max Pax. With 2 class layout
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Relative C.O.C. per trip (%)
A321neo
A321ceo
Relative C.O.C
per seat (%)
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Cash Operating Cost Comparison
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
The 787 is much less efficient than the A321neo on routes <3000nm
3000nm, 2012 marketing standard, Max Pax. With 2 class layout
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Relative C.O.C. per trip (%)
A321neo
A321ceo
Relative C.O.C
per seat (%)
787-8
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A320neo has been clearly endorsed by the Industry
Mid July 2012
A320neo is the preferred market option
Undisclosed
1429 firm orders from 27 customers 650 firm orders from 6 customers
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus today
A320ceo Sharklet EIS on track end 2012
A320neo firm sales approaching 1,500
A330 production increasing, with operator base nearing 100
A350 XWB final assembly started, with ~550 orders to fulfill
A380 firmly installed as the aircraft of preference wherever flown
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the
delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be
used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting
grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.
AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.
2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update
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