mike lubell, american physical society: lean and clean: equipping modern manufacturers

Efficient EnterprisesPowering American Industry

Michael LubellAmerican Physical Society

&Department of Physics, CCNY

March 19,2010

What We Will Cover

• Climate change science: a primer• Energy policy: a prudent approach• Energy efficiency: now and in the future• Climate change R&D: a way forward• Electricity production: an observation

The Greenhouse EffectSimplified Picture

The Greenhouse EffectMore Complete Picture

Climate ChangeWhat We Know Well: Settled Science

• Absorption of IR by greenhouse gas molecules• Increase of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity

Climate ChangeWhat We Know Less Well

• Temperature of the Earth and correlation with CO2

Climate ChangeWhat We Know Even Less Well

• Climate models–Global–Local–Predictability–Confidence

Climate ChangeBut What We Also Know Well

• Dwell time of CO in the atmosphere

Climate ChangeBut What We Also Do Know Well

• Dwell time of CO2 in the atmosphere: hundreds of years• Compare ozone hole and dwell time of Freon

Climate ChangeBut What We Also Know Well

• Dwell time of CO2 in the atmosphere: hundreds of years• Compare ozone hole and dwell time of Freon:

decades

And Even with the Ozone Hole…

Note: 1 Dobson Unit = 0.01 mm

Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security

Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security• Energy Efficiency– Prudent policy– It costs the economy nothing to deploy existing

technologies– But we must invest in research to develop future

technologies

A Promotional Announcement

www.aps.org/EnergyEfficiencyReport/

Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security

• Climate change R&D–White House roadmap: $15 billion/yr federal R&D

investment needed to achieve 83% target reduction by 2050–Unfortunately existing climate bills virtually ignore

research We will never reach the target!

Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security• Some ideas for funding climate change R&D– Five percent of total carbon allowances issued

annually should be dedicated to funding basic research and long-term applied research to help achieve the 83% carbon reduction goals.– The Secretary of Energy should prepare a long-

term research plan and provide annual updates to assure targets are met.– To the maximum extent practicable, multiyear

projects should be fully funded at their initiation with reviews of projects taking place annually.

Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security• Some ideas for funding climate change R&D– Funds should be used for competitively awarded

research in the following areas:» New lower, or zero, carbon emission energy resources

and technologies, including increased efficiency.» Improved methods for capturing and sequestering

greenhouse gases.» Climate change research, including its modeling and

monitoring.» The economic, behavioral and social factors affecting

consumer energy use.

One More Issue – Renewables in Brief• Sources of electric power: load classification– Coal: base load– Nuclear: base load– Hydro: base load– Natural gas: “peaker” as currently used– Wind: intermittent– Solar: intermittent

• Fundamental requirements for wind and solar scale-up– Grid– Electricity storage

What We Covered

• Climate change science: a primer• Energy policy: a prudent approach• Energy efficiency: now and in the future• Climate change R&D: a way forward• Electricity production: an observation