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ME quarterly property sentiment snapshot.Quarterly insights into how Australians feel about the residential property market.
FIFTH SURVEY, Q2 APRIL 2020
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 2
About this snapshotThe ME Quarterly Property Sentiment Snapshot provides timely insights into the sentiment of Australians towards the residential property market based on a survey of 1,000 Australian adults in the property market who do not work in the market research or public relations industries.
The survey is designed, developed and produced quarterly by industry super fund-owned bank ME with fieldwork conducted by Pure Profile.
This edition presents the findings from the fifth edition – Q2 of the 2020 calendar year, conducted in April 2020.
The snapshot tracks changes overtime in property sentiment and in doing so, highlights the ongoing – and potentially shifting – differences between ages, locations, property status, intentions and experiences in terms of:
• overall property market sentiment• price expectations• impacts on future property plans • impacts on finances, wealth, and savings behaviour • impact of recent events For analysis, the sample is broken down into investors, owner occupiers and first home buyers in the following proportions to provide accurate results within each cohort:
• 535 – Owner occupied property owners • 328 – Investment property owners • 224 - First home buyers The data has been weighted to be nationally representative across age, gender, and location.
For further information.Matthew Read General Manager Communications
T 0432 130 338 E matthew.read@mebank.com.au
Jennifer Timm Consumer PR Manager
T 0403 369 707 E jennifer.timm@mebank.com.au
Level 28, 360 Elizabeth Street Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia
mebank.com.au
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 3
Overall property sentimentPositive property sentiment fell 12 percentage points in April (Q2) compared to January (Q1) this year. Sentiment varies by age, property status and property intentions.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
37
35
28
42
33
26
42
34
24
4144
29
27
39
20
■ Negative ■ Neutral ■ Positive
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Q22020
75+ years
55–74 years
40–54 years
25–39 years
18–24 years
34 36 303946
28 331836
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
42 29 29
27 51 2233 57 1039 40 2136 47 17
29 46 2432 42 2639 46 15
30 47 2344 37 1940 38 22
38 33 29
51 25 2443 35 22
38 2537
23 56 21
19 50 31
25 47 28
37 37 26
42 30 28
27 41 32
31 44 25
■ Positive ■ Neutral ■ Negative
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 1. Overall property sentimentOverall, how do you feel about the property market?
Figure 2. Property sentiment by ageOverall, how do you feel about the property market?
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 4
■ Positive ■ Neutral ■ Negative
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
35 44 2146 32 2246 40 14
44 29 2740 34 26
27 38 3530 37 33
32 35 33
31 43 26
51 30 1945 38 17
26 49 24
29 44 27
34 35 30
27 38 35Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
21 51 28
35 28 37
48 32 19
■ Positive ■ Neutral ■ Negative
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Intend to buy
Intend to sell
Intend to do nothing
32 41 27
33 47 20
24 49 2725 47 28
58 18 24
49 27 24
44 23 3333 26 41
63 22 15
52 30 18
51 30 1953 23 24
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Figure 3. Property sentiment by property statusOverall, how do you feel about the property market?
Figure 4. Property sentiment by property intentions Overall, how do you feel about the property market?
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 5
House price expectations Overall, more people are predicting house prices to decline, and less are expecting them to rise over the next 12 months; however, expectations vary based on property status and location.
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Q22020
■ Down ■ Stay the same ■ Up ■ Not sure
11
2928
32
17
14
30
38
13
10
30
47
10 13
10
25
41
55
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20
26
Figure 5. Overall house price expectationsWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?
195748
3827
21524837
32
20
564640
38
389
12
1427
4412
1219
30
46
1013
22
29
292531
3336
262732
32
30
20
2224
24
20
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
■ Up ■ Down ■ Stay the same
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Figure 6. House price expectations by property statusWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?
Figure 7. House price expectations by stateWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?
Please note, survey sample sizes for other metro areas are smaller and are therefore not included.
21
17
56573224
206757
3833
1957574436
1043
2530
56464536
1115
2241
407
6
1836
3898
1524
5114
2815
26
454
12521
2322
3325
2717
27
2725
272524
2231
2530
3646
39
2931
3236
31
NSW Metro
VIC Metro
QLD Metro
WA Metro
SA Metro
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
■ Up ■ Down ■ Stay the same
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 6
Property intentionsME asked people in the property market what their property plans are over the next 12 months and found more people are planning to hold. Intentions vary by age, income and property status.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
58
34
12
59
33
15
5865
3629
1014
63
31
11
■ Neither buy nor sell property■ To buy property ■ To sell property
Q22019
Q22020
Q12020
Q32019
Q42019
Figure 8. Overall property plansWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
■ To buy property ■ To sell property ■ Neither buy nor sell property
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
75+ years
6 3 945 8 883 5 94
10 6 88
5 7 90
55–74 years
9 14 78
20 14 72
12 11 81
15 11 78
17 9 76
40–54 years
39 18 54
38 15 56
28 10 67
29 11 6629 12 62
25–39 years
53 16 42
45 15 48
45 11 49
44 10 5052 16 38
18–24 years
34 12 5751 13 4237 12 56
45 13 5041 6 53
Figure 9. Property plans by ageWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 7
Figure 10. Property plans by incomeWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
■ To buy property ■ To sell property ■ Neither buy nor sell property
Under $50,000
22 9 7121 10 7118 10 75
24 9 70
26 6 70
$50,001 to $75,000
28 9 6436 14 5727 11 67
29 7 6735 14 53
$75,001 to $100,000
39 17 53
41 15 5531 5 66
28 12 6529 16 59
$100,001 to $125,000
Over $125,000
45 18 4941
37
16 5112 55
38 13 5739 11 54
36 22 5538 14 55
39 14 56
45 17 5143 14 52Q2 2019
Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
■ To buy property ■ To sell property ■ Neither buy nor sell property
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
28 1724 13
22 11
37 2944 2744 23
46 242 238 1
6327 15 6718 8 78
71
76
4839 24 4839 23 47
4239
5351 3 4842 1 57
5661Q2 2019
Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020
Figure 11. Property plans by property statusWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 8
Effect on financesChanges in house prices influenced respondents’ financial situation in a variety of ways, both positive and negative.
27%net negative 1%
net negative 4%
28%
24%net negative 4% 28%
24%net negative 6% 30%
21%net negative 11% 32%
36%21%38%21%
net positive 15%
net positive 17%
28%net negative 2%
net negative 10%
30%
26%net negative 5% 31%
net negative 4% 27% 23%
net positive 4%22% 26%
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
37%20% net positive 17%Q4 2019
36%18% net positive 18%Q1 2020
Q2 2019
Q3 2019net positive 9%20% 29%Q4 2019
net positive 4%20% 24%Q1 2020
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
25%net negative 3% 28% Q4 2019
20%net negative 8% 28% Q1 2020
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
33% net positive 6%27% Q4 2019
32% net positive 8%24% Q1 2020
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
31% net positive 9%22% Q4 2019
25%20% net positive 5%Q2 2020
net positive 1%19% 20%Q2 2020
17%net negative 17% 34% Q2 2020
21%31% Q2 2020
21%25% Q2 2020
30% net positive 9%21% Q1 2020
Sense of wealth
Willingness to spend on discretionary items like entertainment or eating out
Savings behaviour
General financial confidence
Debt situation
■ Negative ■ Positive
Figure 12. Overall effect on finances*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on these aspects of your financial situation?
* Respondents had the choice of answering positive, negative or neutral. We have removed neutral responses from the chart for the sake of simplicity.
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 9
19%23%
27%
21%37%
29%
31%34%
31%
33%26%
23%
39%28%
36%
21%20%21%
■ Negative impact ■ Positive impact
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
29% 28%Q1 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
23% 31%Q1 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
16% 33%Q1 2020
27%16% Q2 2020
31%25% Q2 2020
21% 21%Q2 2020
%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
23% 35%26% 26%
29% 22%
22% 41%34% 31%
31% 34%
42% 23%39% 24%
33%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer28%
■ Negative impact ■ Positive impact
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
36% 28%Q1 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
24% 34%Q1 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
19% 28%Q1 2020
17% 34%Q2 2020
25% 36%Q2 2020
21% 26%Q2 2020
Figure 13. Sense of wealth by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?
Figure 15. General financial confidence by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?
26%27%
27%
25%36%
33%
33%41%
32%
25%21%
20%
30%26%
27%
23%34% 22%
29% 19%
22% 22%
19%24%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
■ Negative impact ■ Positive impact
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020
Q1 2020
Q1 2020
41%14%
38%21%
28%16%
Q2 2020
Q2 2020
Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
Figure 14. Willingness to spend on discretionary items by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?
18%20%
25%
19%30%30%
24%23%
24%
16%
24%28%
30%26%
20%
37%32%
30%
20%26%
17%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
■ Negative impact ■ Positive impact
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
19%Q1 2020
26%Q1 2020
27%Q1 2020
17%
26%
18%
21%Q1 2020
28%Q1 2020
13%Q1 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
Figure 16. Debt situation by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?
* Respondents had the choice of answering positive, negative or neutral. We have removed neutral responses from the chart for the sake of simplicity.
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 10
20% 34%19% 33%
20% 29%
18% 42%28% 39%
24% 41%
23% 40%20% 47%
21% 40%
Owner occupier
Investor
First Home Buyer
■ Negative impact ■ Positive impact
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
24% 37%Q1 2020
20% 37%Q1 2020
14 35%Q1 2020
38% 21%Q2 2020
42% 22%Q2 2020
29% 17%Q2 2020
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019
Figure 17. Savings behaviour by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?
* Respondents had the choice of answering positive, negative or neutral. We have removed neutral responses from the chart for the sake of simplicity.
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 11
AffordabilityHousing affordability remains a key concern, with 90% agreeing it is a big issue, unchanged from last quarter.
Figure 18. Housing affordability is a big issue in Australia Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
88
93
89
90
90
Housing a�ordability is a big issue in Australia
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q4 2019
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 100%
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 12
Impact of recent events Events such as bushfire, the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn have influenced sentiment in the real estate market.
Figure 19. Property plans after the bushfires*Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The recent bushfires have affected my decision to buy or sell property
Figure 21. COVID-19’s impact on buying and selling activityDo you agree or disagree with the following statement: COVID-19 will affect my decision to buy or sell property
Figure 20. COVID-19’s impact on the real estate market*Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: COVID-19 will negatively impact the Australian real estate market
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
■ Net agree
28
27
30
41NSWregional
Total
Metro
Regional
Total
■ Net agree
Owner occupiedproperty owner
Investor propertyowner
First HomeBuyer
55
52
59
56
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
83
82
83
80
88
83
83
82
87
82
87
Total
NSW Metro
VIC Metro
QLD Metro
WA Metro
SA Metro
Owner occupiedproperty owner
Investor property owner
First HomeBuyer
Intendto buy
Intend to sell
■ Net agree
50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Figure 22. Economic downturn could be good buying opportunity* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: An economic downturn will be a good opportunity to buy
Total
NSW Metro
VIC Metro
QLD Metro
WA Metro
SA Metro
Owner occupiedproperty owner
Investor property owner
First HomeBuyer
■ Net agree
50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
84
86
80
81
87
83
83
82
87
* Please note, survey sample sizes for other metro and regional areas are smaller and are therefore not included
ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 13
Figure 24. Perceived impact of record low interest rates. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Record low interest rates have made buying or investing in property more attractive to me
Figure 23. Impact of COVID-19 restrictions around in-person auctions* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: COVID-19 restrictions around in-person auctions and property inspections have delayed my decision to buy or sell
Total
Owner occupiedproperty owner
Investor property owner
First HomeBuyer
Intend to buy
Intend to sell
■ Net agree
70
66
72
75
80
64
50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Total
NSW Metro
VIC Metro
QLD Metro
WA Metro
Owner occupiedproperty owner
Investor property owner
First HomeBuyer
Intend to buy
Intend to sell
■ Net agree
30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
51
56
58
47
54
51
50
53
59
62
* Please note, survey sample sizes for other metro and regional areas are smaller and are therefore not included
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