master plan workshop #1 market analysis charrette/handouts/1 aacid_market... · 2017. 8. 2. ·...

Master Plan

Workshop #1

Market AnalysisJuly 21, 2016

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• Market Area +400,000 residents; 47,230 new residents since 2000

• Young adults, including families, are most common age grouping

• However, net 15-year growth almost entirely concentrated in Baby Boomer generation

• New Baby Boomer residents have influenced an increase in median age to 33.2 years

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

Population by Age Cohort, Market Area, 2000-2016

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Pop

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2000

2016

• Households increased 16.8% since 2000; growth split between low and high incomes

• Median household income slightly declined since 2000

• Concentrated growth in older residents has impacted household characteristics:• Single-occupancy households

are increasing• Household size is declining• Income-levels are declining

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS

Households by Income Cohort, Market Area, 2000-2016

TAPESTRY SEGMENTATION

Family Foundations (17.0%)• Mix of married couples, single parents, grandparents,

and children, young and adult• Over one-third receive Social Security benefits• Labor force participation lower as workers retire• Drive demand for single-family housing (67.0% own)

Metro Fusion (12.9%)• Young, diverse population segment• Single-parent and single-person households make up

more than half of total• Highly mobile, driving demand for rental properties• Median incomes lower than typical US levels

American Dreamers (9.7%)• Younger married-couple families with children• Multigenerational homes are common• Diversity is high• Attracted to single-family housing, typically outside

urban centers – seeking affordability

HOW DO WE COMPARE?

MARKET AREA ATLANTA MSA

Median Age

Household Size

Median Income

Secondary Degrees

33.2 35.8

2.68 2.70

$38,305 $57,792

30.1% 43.4%

MARKET AREA EMPLOYMENT

• Market Area had nearly 207,000 jobs in 2014 (8.9% regional total)

• Transportation & Warehousing jobs more than doubled since 2004; made up nearly 90% increase

• Nearly half of the people working in the Market Area earn more than $40,000 per year

• Over 100,000 Market Area residents commute for

employment

• Commuters primarily travel to the east; driven by jobs

in urban Atlanta, Forest Park, Morrow

• However, 38,000+ people live and work in Study Area;

ratio of 1.40 jobs to households

COMMUTING PATTERNS

Market Area

HOUSING TRENDS

• Nationally, homeownership has fallen dramatically in 10 years

• Housing in the Market Area is:

• Comparatively older (median year built 1979 v. 1990 for region)

• Over 55% is single-family detached; 39% is multi-family

• Only 38.9% is owner-occupied; higher renter share indicates many rentals are in single-family houses

• Residential building permits still remain less than 50% pre-Recession levels

Residential Building Permits, Atlanta MSA, 2004-2015

RETAIL TRENDS

• Positive net absorption in last three years has pushed Atlanta into a ‘Rising Market’ position – poised for growth as housing development continues

• Market vacancy at 9.8%; declined 4.1% since the Recession

• Grocers, discount chains, and restaurants were the most active retailers in the Atlanta market in 2015

20132016

OFFICE TRENDS

• Modest net absorption led to little change in office vacancy in early 2016

• Performance is not wide-spread; Airport area has one of the highest vacancy rates at 23.5%

• Rental rates have trended upward with Class A space demonstrating the strongest gains

INDUSTRIAL/LOGISTICS TRENDS

• South Atlanta second largest inventory at +160 million square feet

• Leading the market in industrial absorption (56%); continued positive absorption in this area expected

• Vacancy has been trending downward; lease rates in the Airport/South Submarket have increased substantially in the last two years ($3.36 on average)

141,000

143,000

145,000

192,000

193,000

212,000

342,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Food & Beverage

Energy

Professional & Business Services

Pet Food & Supplies

Consumer Nondurables

Paper & Packaging

Construciton

Logistics & Distribution

Retailer (traditional)

Top Tenant Industries, Atlanta MSA, 1Q2016

MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

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Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term

• Priority projects should support near-term demand for industrial and residential product

• New population and jobs will ultimately support additional retail demand in the Study Area

• Protect key areas offering accessibility, visibility, and proximity to amenities for mixed-use development, including office space

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