manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
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Z}qiafyce` Inql`e{ A``coef{5:/sae} {e`a{ y}afi efe`s{c{ z}aze}ai ms4
=:::/=::3oe}hay }azn}yOefgeyyef
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Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
5Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
\;9YG[Y&
A9=FI[Y&
\1
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Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
=Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
=:5:& Ef Cfiazafiafy`s n|fai efi nza}eyai oaoma} nb Yga Z}qiafyce` ]ae` A{yeya Ebst`ceya{, Cfk& c{ e {a}rcka oe}h nb Z}qiafyce` Cf{q}efka Knozefs nb Eoa}cke Auqe` Gnq{cfl Nzzn}yqfcys&E`` oeya}ce` z}a{afyai ga}acf c{ cfyafiai bn}
cfbn}oeycnf zq}zn{a{ nf`s& \gc`a ygc{ cfbn}oeycnf c{ ma`carai yn ma kn}}aky, cy c{ }az}a{afyai {qmdaky yn a}}n}{, noc{{cnf{, kgefla{ n} |cygi}e|e` |cygnqy fny cka& E`` z}nza}ys nqy`cfa{ efi {uqe}a bnnyela cf z}nza}ys `c{ycfl{ e}a ezz}nwcoeya&
Oefgeyyef Oe}hay{
Z}QIafyCe@ InQL@e{ a@@COef
[cfka 5355, Z}qiafyce` Inql`e{ A``coef ge { maaf }aknlfctai e{ e `aeia} cf }ae` a{yeya m}nha}ela& Fny nf`s ina{
Z}qiafyce` Inql`e{ A``coef {a}ra }a{ciafyce` {e`a{ k`cafy{ |cyg e bq` ` knoz`aoafy nb {a}rcka{, mqy e`{n nb ba}{
}afye` m}nha}ela, }ayec` e fi knooa}kce` {e`a{ efi `ae{cfl, fa| iara`nzoafy oe}haycfl efi {e`a{, }a`nkeycnf
efi {ayy`cfl/cf {a}rcka{, z}nza}ys oefelaoafy z`q{ on}ylela bcfefkcfl efi ycy`a cf{q}efka y g}nqlg }a`eyai
knozefca{&
Yga knozefs ge{ nra} ;,1:: elafy{ cf 2: nbbcka{ `nkeyai cf Oefgeyyef, M}nnh`sf, Uqaaf{, @nfl C{`efi cfk`qicfl
Yga Geozynf{ efi Fn}yg Bn}h e}ae{, efi c{ }efhai eonfl yga ynz bcra }a{ciafyce` }ae` a{yeya knozefca{ cf yga
feycnf |cyg nra} )5= mc``cnf cf {e`a{ cf =::3& Yg}nqlg cy{ eb bc`ceycnf |cyg Z} qiafyce`, cy c{ knffakyai yn nra}
2=,::: }ae` a{yeya elafy{ cf yga Q[E efi Kefeie lcrcfl cy{ elafy{ yga emc`cys yn {a}ra kq{ynoa}{ faai{ rc }yqe``s
efs|ga}a& Rc{cy z}qiafyce`a``coef&kno yn rca| y gnq{efi{ nb `c{ycfl{ cf yga y} c/{yeya e}ae&
OC@@a} {eOQa@
Oc``a} [eoqa` c{ ef cfiazafiafy }a{ciafyce` }ae ` a{yeya ezz}ec{e` e fi knf{q`ycfl bc}o ygey knra}{ yga l}aeya}
Fa| Sn}h Kcys oay}nzn`cyef e}ae cfk`qicfl z}nza}ys cf Oefgeyyef, M}nnh`sf, Uqaaf{, M}nfw, [yeyaf C{`efi,
\a{ykga{ya} Knqfys, Bec}bca`i Knqfys, Fn}yga}f Fa| Da}{as, efi @nfl C{`efi cfk`qicfl yga Geozynf{.Fn}yg Bn}h&
Bnqfiai cf 5372, cy{ k`cafy{ cfk`qia inoa{yck efi cfya}feycnfe` b cfefkce` cf{ycyqycnf{, `e| bc} o{, knf{q`ycfl bc} o{,
iara`nza}{, aoz`nsaa }a`nkeycnf knozefca{, kn/nz mne}i{ e fi knfin e{{nkceycnf{, oefelcfl elafy{, cficrciqe`{
efi lnra}foafy elafkca{& Oc``a} [eoqa` z}nrcia{ ezz}ec{e` {a}rcka{ bn} zq}kge{a efi }ab cfefka on}ylela
n}clcfeycnf, kn``eya}e` oe felaoafy, eqkycnf, a{yeya, y}q{y, lcby, icrn}ka, mefh}qzyks, `cycleycnf, mqsa} efi {a``a}
re`qeycnf{ e{ |a`` e{ aw za}y | cyfa{{ {a}rcka{ efi awyaf{cra e{{clfoafy{ knra}cfl }nnb, ge``|es, me{aoafy efi
nyga} knoonf e}ae re`qeycnf{ efi {ge}a e``nkeycnf{&
Nq} eb bc`ceya, Oc``a} Kcka}n c{ ef cfiazafiafy knooa}kce` }ae` a{yeya ezz}ec{e` efi knf{q`ycfl bc}o ygey ezz}ec{a{z}nza}ys cf y ga l}aeya} Fa| Sn}h Kcys oay}nzn`cyef e}ae& Oc``a} Kcka}n z}nrcia{ eirc{n}s {a}rcka{ knfka}fcfl
nbbcka, }aye c` efi oq`yc/qfcy }a{ciafyce`, fa| iara`nzoafy, knooa}kce`, {e`a{ efi `ae{a efe`s{c{&
Oc``a} [eoqa` z}aze}a{ e {a} ca{ nb oe}hay }azn}y{ yg}nqlgnqy yga Fa| Sn}h }alcnf cf eiicycnf yn ygc{ }azn}y
cfk`qicfl effqe` }azn}y{ bn} yga Oefgeyyef Yn|fgnq{a Oe}hay efi Geozynf{.Fn}yg Bn}h [e`a{ Oe}hay e{ |a`` e{
uqe}ya}`s nra}rca|{ nb yga Oefgeyyef Kn/nz efi Knfin [e`a{ efi ]afye` Oe}hay{ e{ |a`` e{ uqe}ya}`s nra}rca|{
nb M}nnh`sf, Uqaaf{, @nfl C{`efi efi yga Geozynf{.Fn}yg Bn}h Oe}hay{
Yga{a oe}hay {yqica{, kq{ynoctai ieye yem`a{, kge}y{, }a{ae}kg zeza}{, eqygn}ai e}yck`a{ efi nyga} gnq{cfl oe}hay}a{nq}ka{ e}a erec`em`a ey|||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno& Bn} iec`s knra}ela nb yga }ae` a{yeya aknfnos, rc{cy yga m`nl4
Oey}cw4 Cfya}z}aycfl Yga ]ae` A{yeya Aknfnos ey oey}cw&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno n} {qm{k}cma yn Yga Gnq{cfl Ga`cw
Znike{y |cyg Dnfeygef Oc``a} ey | ||&ygagnq{cflga`cw&kno |cyg knooafye}s efi nm{a}reycnf{ nf yga gnq{cfl
oe}hay, e{ |a`` e{ cfya}rca|{ |cyg awza}y{ b}no re}cnq{ |e`h{ nb }ae` a{yeya `cba&
Bn} uqa{ycnf{ }ale}icfl ygc{ }azn}y n} bn} ezz}ec{e` cfuqc}ca{, z`ae{a knfyeky yga }azn}y eqygn}, Dnfeygef D& Oc``a},
Z}a{ciafy.KAN ey doc``a}Joc``a}{eoqa`&kno&
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Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
;Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
Cfy}nIQKyCnf
OaygnIn@nLS
Bn} on}a cfbn}oeycnf nf gn| ygc{ }azn}y c{ z}aze}ai, rc{cy4|||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno.}azn}y{.oaygnin`nls&zgz
Oe}hay MnQfIe}Ca{
\gc`a yga mnqfie}ca{ bn} yga{a faclgmn}gnni{ e}a z}a{afyai cf aekg oe}hay e}ae ygey c{ efe`stai, e {qooe}s zela
nb e`` mnqfie}ca{ kef ma rca|ai ga}a4 |||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno.}azn}y{.faclgmn}gnni/mnqfie}ca{/znzqz&{gyo`
Oe}hay KnRa}eLaYga knra}ela nb yga Oefgeyyef }ae` a{yeya oe}hay cf ygc{ }azn}y cfk`qia{ yga afyc}a c{`efi nb Oefgeyyef&
Yga e}ae{ z}a{afyai nra}`ez cf fqoa}nq{ |es{ makeq{a ygas }ab`aky icbba}afy oe}hay{, faclgmn}gnni{ efi {qm/
faclgmn}gnni{& Yga ynye`{ b}no yga{a m}aehin|f{ awkaai yga nra}e`` Oefgeyyef {yeyc{yck{& Bn} aweoz`a, e knfin
{e`a cf Ke}falca Gc`` c{ e`{n cfk`qiai cf yga Qzza} Ae{y [cia knfin {yeyc{yck{, yga Ae{y [cia knfin {yeyc{yck{, Ae{y.
\a{y.In|fyn|f knfin {yeyc{yck{, Oefgeyyef knfin {yeyc{yck{ efi Oefgeyyef kn/nz efi knfin {yeyc{yck{& Yga ciae
magcfi ygc{ knra}ela ezz}nekg |e{ yn ze}{a oe}hay cfbn}oeycnf cf knoonf`s ekkazyai ia`cfaeycnf{ ygey |a}a
on{y }auqa{yai, z}ekycke` mqy on{y cozn}yefy`s, gei eiauqeya iazyg nb ieye yn awy}eky y}afi{&
Yga{a ell}aleya {yeyc{yck{ kef e`{n ma }arca|ai efi lafa}eyai e{ kq{yno yem`a{ ey4 |||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno.ieye
{nQ}Ka Ieye
Yga ieye q{ai cf ygc{ }azn}y c{ me{ai nf yga ell}aleya nb yga bnq} uqe}ya}`s }azn}y{ zqm`c{gai iq}cfl yga sae}
me{ai nf yga ieye erec`em`a ey aekg uqe}ya}`s }azn}y }a`ae{a& Ebya} yga afi nb aekg uqe}ya}, makeq{a nb yga `el ma/
y|aaf k`n{cfl ieya efi }akn}icfl ieya, {e`a{ ieye knfycfqa{ yn be`` |cygcf ygn{a uqe}ya}`s }azn}y ycoa b}eoa{& E{ e}a{q`y, ygc{ }azn}y ina{ fny cfk`qia e`` {e`a{ yn nkkq} iq} cfl yga sae} mqy c{ me{ai nf e `e}la afnqlg {eoz`a {cta yn
ma e oe}hay y}afi }aba}afka&
Yga bnq} yem`a{ z}a{afyai bn} aekg oe}hay e}ae4 era}ela {e`a{ z}cka, era}ela z}cka za} {uqe}a bnny, oaicef {e`a{
z}cka efi fqoma} nb {e`a{ e}a knf{cia}ai yga {nq}ka ieye nb ygc{ }azn}y efi e}a q{ai bn} yga ekknozefscfl kge}y{
efi oey}cw yem`a{&
KnfyeKy
Oc``a} [eoqa` Cfk&
]ae` A{yeya Ezz}ec{a}{ " Knf{q`yefy{
=5 \a{y ;7yg [y}aay, Fa| Sn}h, FS 5::57
'=5=#
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
1Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,;3;,::5 /5=&1! )5,135,7=; 32! )
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
2Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
Oefgeyyef Kn/nZ{ efI KnfIn{
ERA]ELA [uqE]A BnnYELA ms mAI]nnO[
=::3 fqOmA] nB qfCY[ [n@I =::3 ELL]ALEYA Zq]KgE[A In@@E][
=::3 fqOmA] nB qfCY[ [n@I ms E]AE =::3 fqOmA] nB qfCY[ [n@I ms mAI]nnO[
@C[YCfL C fRAfYn]s
6 )9O1!
)5O / )9O;1!
0 )5O2:!
6 )9O=
)5O / )9O9
0 )5O=2!
Ae{y [cia
;5!
Qzyn|f1!
In|fyn|f;3!
\a{y [cia=1!
=/Mai}nno
;:!
5/Mai}nno;
[yqicn5
;/Mai}nno5;!
9( Mai}nno;!
:
1::
5,:::
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=,:::
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;,1::
9,:::
9,1::
E`` Oefgeyyef9( Mai}nno; Mai}nno= Mai}nno5 Mai}nno[yqicn
=::3=:::
:
5,:::
=,:::
;,:::
9,:::
1,:::
2,:::
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
[ngn ( Y}cmake Knfin{ /9&7!
Bcfefkce` Ic{y}cky Kn/nz{ /1&5!
\e{gcflynf Gaclgy{ Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /2&2!
In|fyn|f Knfin{ /2&3!
L}aaf|ckg Rc``ela Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /7&3![ngn ( Y}cmake Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /3&=!
Ge}`ao ( Ae{y Ge}`ao Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /3&2!
Qzyn|f Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /3&2!
Ke}falca Gc`` Knfin{ /3&
Qzza} Ae{y [cia Knfin{ /5:!
Ociyn|f \a{y ( K`cfynf Kn/nz{ /5:&=!
In|fyn|f Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /5:&1!
Qfcnf [uqe}a ( L}eoa}ks ( H cz{ Mes ( Oq}}es G c ` Knfin{ /55&9!
Sn}hrc``a Knfin{ /55&2!
Oefgeyyef Knfin{ /55&3!
Kga`{ae Knfin{ /5=!Kga`{ae Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /5=&5!
@afnw Gc`` Knfin{ /5=&5!
Ae{y [cia ( \a{y [cia ( In|fyn|f Knfin{ /5=&9!
Ociyn|f \a{y ( K`cfynf Knfin{ /59&5!
Oefgeyyef Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&=!
Geoc`ynf ( On}fcfl{cia Gaclgy{ Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&=!
Qzza} Ae{y [cia Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&;!
Sn}hrc``a Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&;!
\a{y [cia Knfin{ /59&
Ae{ y [cia ( \a{y [cia ( In|fy n|f Kn/ nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&7!
L}aaf|ckg Rc``ela Kn/nz{ /59&3![qyynf ( Maahoef Kn/nz{ /51!
OE]hAY E]AE ]EfhCfL 'za}kay kela b era}ela z}cka za} {e}a by, =::7/=::3, k/z{, ki{#
Oefgeyyef Kn/nZ{ efI KnfIn{
IEs[ nf OE]hAY.@C[YCfL IC[KnqfY
@c{ycflIc{knqfy
:
=1
1:
Ae{y [cia ( \a{y [cia ( In|fyn|f Kn/nz{ /5Qzza} \a{y [cia Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /5Ae{y Rc``ela ( @n|a} Ae{y [cia Kn/nz{ /5
Ae{y [cia Knfin{ /53&7!
]cra}{cia I} ( \a{y Afi Era Kn}}cin} Kn/nz{ /=:&5!
@cfkn`f Kafya} Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /=:&
Kafy}e` Ze}h \a{y Kn/nz{ /=5&9!
@cfkn`f Kafya} Kn/nz{ /==&9!
[ngn ( Y}cmake Kn/nz{ /=;&2!
Bcbyg Era ( Ze}h Era Kn}}cin} Kn/nz{ /=9&=!
Ociyn|f Ae{y ( Yq}y`a Mes Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /=2&=!
Ociyn|f Ae{y ( Yq}y`a Mes Knfin{ /=
OE]hAY [E@A[ Rn@qOA
Knfin{
Kn/nz{
):
)=,:::,:::,:::
)9,:::,:::,:::
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)7,:::,:::,:::
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)59,:::,:::,:::
)52,::::,::,:::
)57,:::,:::,:::
)=:,:::,:::,:::
=::3=::7=::
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
7Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
OefgeyyefKn/nZ{
e@@ Z}CKa CfICKeyn}{ Zn{y Sae} nRa} Sae} IaK@Cfa{
Cf =::3 aekg nb yga z}cka cfickeyn}{ ba`` b}no yga }akn}i{ {ay cf =::7 efi }ae`ctai yga }{y sae} nra} iak`cfa{ {cfka =::=,
e`ygnqlg yga iak`cfa{ cf =::= |a}a `e}la`s eyy}cmqyem`a yn e {gcby yn {oe``a} qfcy{& Yga oaicef {e`a{ z}cka bn} =::3 |e{
)2=1,:::, 5;! ma`n| yga }akn}i )ba`` 57&=! yn )5,:;:,2;: b}no e }akn}i )5,=13,era}ela z}cka za} {uqe}a bnny ba`` =9&=! yn )5,91: b}no )5,359 cf =::7&
http://www.millersamuel.com/http://www.prudentialelliman.com/http://www.prudentialelliman.com/http://www.millersamuel.com/ -
8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
3Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
OefgeyyefKn/nZ{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,:;:,2;: /57&=! )5,=13,
Fqoma} nb [e`a{ ;,9:5 /=1&7! 9,172 /;7&2! 1,1;1
mnqfIE]sFn}yg4 Ge}`ao ]cra}[nqyg4 Meyya}s Ze}hAe{y4 Ae{y ]cra}\a{y4 Gqi{nf ]cra}
OEY]CW
[yqicn 5 Mai}nno = Mai}nno ; Mai}nno 9( Mai}nno E@@
=::3 );2;,222 )25
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
5:Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
OefgeyyefKnfIn{
Z}CKa CfICKeyn}{ Be@@ B}nO }aKn}I @aRa@{
E`` yg}aa z}cka cfickeyn}{ {gn|ai iak`cfa{ b}no }akn}i `ara`{ {ay cf =::7, `e}la`s iqa yn fa| iara`nzoafy ekycrcys&
[cfka yga oaaycfl nb yga ocfi{ cf e `e}la zn}ycnf nb fa| iara`nzoafy k`n{cfl{ nkkq}}ai 5=/57 onfyg{ z}cn},
yga nra}e`` iak`cfa cf z}cka{ c{ qfia}{yeyai cf yga{a oay}ck{& Yga oaicef {e`a{ z}cka bn} e Oefgeyyef knfin
|e{ )5,:1:,:::, in|f 5=&1! b}no e }akn}i )5,=::,::: cf =::7, mqy }aoecfai emnra )5,:::,::: bn} yga ygc}iknf{akqycra sae}& Yga oaicef {e`a{ z}cka bn} e knfin cf =::: ey yga malcffcfl nb yga iakeia |e{ )12:,:::& Yga
era}ela z}cka za} {uqe}a bnny |e{ )5,=5:, in|f 55&3! b}no e }akn}i )5,;http://www.prudentialelliman.com/http://www.millersamuel.com/
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
55Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
OefgeyyefKnfIn{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,237,773 /7&2! )5,717,9:7 79&=! )3==,979
Era}ela Z}cka Za} [u& By )5,=5: /55&3! )5,;
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Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
5=Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
Oefgeyyef @QWQ}S Kn/nZ{ efI KnfIn{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )1,;3;,;73 /59&7! )2,;;:,:3;
Fqoma} nb [e`a{
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
14/61
Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
5;Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
ae{y {CIa.\a{y {CIa.In\fyn\f Kn/nZ{ " KnfIn{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,99=,71= /5;&;! )5,22;,3=1 7mnqfIE]sFn}yg4 \a{y 552yg [y}aay efi Ae{y 32yg [y}aay[nqyg4 Meyya}s Ze}hAe{y4 Ae{y ]cra}\a{y4 Gqi{nf ]cra}
OEY]CW
[yqicn 5 Mai}nno = Mai}nno ; Mai}nno 9( Mai}nno E@@
=::3 )9;3,
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
15/61
Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
59Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
ae{y {CIa.\a{y {CIa.In\fyn\f Kn/nZ{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,:29,5:; /57&3! )5,;5=,:;< 25&;! )213,3:1
Era}ela Z}cka Za} [u& By )3=; /5Oaicef [e`a{ Z}cka )293,::: /5;&;! )
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
16/61
Oefgeyyef
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3
51Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
ae{y {CIa.\a{y {CIa.In\fyn\f KnfIn{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
17/61
ae{y {CIa
Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =::: =::3
52Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
ae{y {CIa Kn/nZ{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,;1:,112 /=5&7! )5,
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
18/61
ae{y {CIa
5
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
19/61
ae{y {CIa
57Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
QZZa} ae{y {CIaKn/nZ{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,93=,Era}ela Z}cka Za} [u& By )5,:=1 /57&
Oaicef [e`a{ Z}cka )OEY]CW
[yqicn 5 Mai}nno = Mai}nno ; Mai}nno 9( Mai}nno E@@
=::3 );9
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8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)
20/61
ae{y {CIa
53Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO
QZZa} ae{y {CIaKnfIn{
Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia
Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )=,551,:=2 /;&9! )=,577,725 5::&=! )5,:12,1=
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