making the numbers work for you masuma farooki m.z.farooki@open.ac.uk
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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What Can Numbers Do?
•Situating a research question•Justifying sector and sampling choices
▫Sample size vs. Market size•Justifying policy issues and implications
▫Importance to the economy•Supporting the story•Time Lines and Path Dependency
▫Explanatory Power
UNCTAD All Commodity Monthly Price Index (1960-2009 ) (2000=100)
Source: Calculated from UNCTAD Statistics online accessed June 2009
Identifying What You Need• The Context: A global/national look at the issue at
hand, to evidence the importance of the issue and why it needs to be looked at.
• The Specifies: Sectoral information focusing on secondary sources rather than information gleamed from fieldwork.
• The Comparison: In analysis, discussion and
generalisations, comparisons to others. Comparisons can be across sectors, economies or over time horizons.
Where Can The Information Be Found?•International Databases •Pre-Constructed sets•IFI Reports•Non-database sources
Major Data-BasesInstitution Databases Indicators
World Bank www.worldbank.org/data
World Development Indicators
Country level macro economic indicators.
UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics on linehttp://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1890&lang=1
Various International Statistics
Trade breakdown by Commodity Group
COMTRADE http://comtrade.un.org/ Trade data Commodity level statistics
World Bank (Pink Sheet) Up-to-date Commodity Price Data
Monthly updates of commodity prices.
IMF http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm
World Economic Outlook Commodity Prices
Country level time series on major indicators(overlaps with WDI but is more up to date)
UNCTAD: INFOCOMM http://r0.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/indexen.htm#
Commodity data Links to commodity specific data sources
Major Data-BasesInstitution Databases Indicators
USGShttp://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/
Production DataMajor global producersGood historical time series
UN Data Explorerhttp://data.un.org/Browse.aspx?d=ILO
Various International Statistics
Complete list and access to UN Data sets.
Trade Statisticshttp://imts.wto.org/other_e.htm
List of major trade datasets websites
African Economic Outlookhttp://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/
Data specifically for African countries
Recent years, Macro indicators
Pre-Constructed Sets
Asian Drivers SSA Commodities Data Base (1998-2006)
•Production•Trade•Prices•By Country and Commodity
Pre Constructed Sets
www.commodities.open.ac.ukUp-to-date information on•Production•Trade•Prices
Other SourcesSite Web Address
Commodities (private sector)
Mine Webhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page1? Metal Bulletin http://www.metalbulletin.com/
Commodities Nowhttp://www.commodities-now.com/
Mining Journal http://www.mining-journal.com/
Mines and Communitieshttp://www.minesandcommunities.org/
Mining nerdshttp://www.miningnerds.com/
Commodity SpecificProduct Databases Website
CopperInternational copper study group
http://www.icsg.org/
Natural GasInternational Association for Energy Economics
http://www.iaee.org
Diamonds IDEX exchangehttps://www.idexonline.com Oil OPEC http://www.opec.org
IFI Reports• UNCTAD: World Investment Report: www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1485
• UNCTAD: Trade and Development Reporthttp://www.unctad.org/templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2508&lang=1
• IMF: World Economic Outlook (bi-annual)http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
• World Bank: World Development Report. www.worldbank.org/wdr
• Single country updates may also be available at www.worldbank.org/countries
• African Development Bank: African Development Report
http://www.afdb.org/en/documents/publications/african-development-report
Company Presentations
•London Metals Exchange•The Big MNC’s •Consultants
▫ CRU metals http://crugroup.com/Services/PriceRiskManagement/Pages/default.aspx
▫US Funds http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/publications/research/
▫Base Metals http://www.basemetals.com/
Sign up for News Letters
•The FT•Mining Journal•Specific Associations•China-Africa Confidential•Small Investor Conferences
Networking
•Be prepared to grovel!•Get a senior Prof. to send an email•Use contacts through the MMCP•Free Trials! Remember they need you too!•Write to IFI’s… they do respond!
Tricks of the Trade
•For global/country level indicators try to use the same data base (for country indicators use the world bank set as opposed to the UN set)
•You may need to use multiple sources to construct a singular time line, ensure that the data is approximately consistent between the two sets.
Tricks of the Trade
•Flipping Data Sources. Nothing in the national accounts, try the World Bank.
•Using Trade Data to substitute for Production Figures
•Historical Timelines, explain ‘events’
Tricks of the Trade
•Line charts are not always the way to go, bar charts can occasionally make data much more easy to present, especially in the case of missing values.
•Play with different charts.
•Put in an index for comparison
1992M1 1993M5 1994M9 1996M1 1997M5 1998M9 2000M1 2001M5 2002M9 2004M1 2005M5 2006M9 2008M1 2009M50
50
100
150
200
250
Index of Fuel and Non Fuel Commodities (2005=100)
Index of Fuel and Non Fuel Commodities (2005=100)
Source; IMF Commodity Price Statistics, accessed March 2010
Copper Price
1980M1 1982M4 1984M71986M101989M1 1991M4 1993M71995M101998M1 2000M4 2002M72004M102007M1 2009M40
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Copper, LME, grade A cathodes, cif Europe
Copper, LME, grade A cathodes, cif Europe
Source; IMF Commodity Price Statistics, accessed March 2010
Copper Price
1980M1 1982M4 1984M71986M101989M1 1991M4 1993M71995M101998M1 2000M4 2002M72004M102007M1 2009M40
50
100
150
200
250
Copper Price
Index of Industrial Inputs (2005=100) Copper (2005=10)
Source; IMF Commodity Price Statistics, accessed March 2010
Tricks of the Trade• Don’t re-invent the wheel! If someone has already
complied a set, use it.
• Ask other authors for the data they have used in articles… they are flattered by the attention!
• Make sure ‘source’ is clear in terms of date accessed and website address. On-line databases are updated regularly and the numbers do change.
• Round off numbers in tables, (especially when using millions/billions).
Tricks of the Trade
•In finalising data to be used within the text, consider using a single table/graph that can be used to support a number of your arguments.
•Where information is in not $ values, percentages are always a way to step around conversion issues.
Tricks of the Trade
•Be prepared to loose data… just because you spent 5 days digging up information does not mean it will make the final cut!
•Learn to ‘play’ with Excel graphs, the ‘default’ setting does not always work best.
•Use Google and Google Scholar… they work!
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