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Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Environmental Policies and Resulting Outcomes – An Analysis of Transport Sector Case Studies in
India
Mahesh Patankar (mpatankar@iitb.ac.in)Anand Patwardhan (anand@cc.iitb.ac.in) Shailesh J Mehta School of ManagementIndian Institute of Technology – Bombay
CMU – February 2004
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Outline
Context Indian transport policy / regulatory framework Research questions and literature review Framework outline Environmental policy – technology link Technology hierarchy Framework quantification Case studies (description and analysis) Going beyond…..
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Context
Sharp increase in public and private road transport, leading to higher energy use and environmental impacts(Numbers in figure – all types and entire country)
Deteriorating local air quality is a matter of concern – leads to policy response for environmental control
Increase in vehicles
24724521
9170
19152
30295
37231
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997
Year#
of v
eicl
es '0
00
Source: MoST, India, NEERI, India
Transport sector contributes to 29 to 35 % GHG emissions in India!
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Indian transport policy framework - structure
Central GovernmentMinistry of Environment &
Forests (MoEF)
Ministry of Surface Transport (MoST)
Ministry of Petroleum &Natural Gas (MoPNG)
State Government
State Pollution Control Board
Regional Transport Office
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Indian transport policy framework - functions
Central GovernmentMinistry of Environment &
Forests (MoEF)
Ministry of Surface Transport (MoST)
Ministry of Petroleum &Natural Gas (MoPNG)
State Government
State Pollution Control Board
Regional Transport Office
(Designs new road projects, guidelines on vehicle industry standards)
(Sets emission standards – vehicular and ambient air quality)
(licensing and supply chain of petroleum products)
(Air quality monitoring, reports to the MoEF)
(Regulates tail-pipe emission permits)
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Research goal: Understand process of policy formation, effect of alternate fuel policies and its success parametersUnderstand the differences in “success parameters” using case studies
Questions:Can the environmental policies alone ensure diffusion of clean fuel in IndiaWhat are the compelling conditions that ensure “success rate” of clean fuel policiesCan a framework be established that will act like a “policy tool”
What determines the success of policy?
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Summary and gaps
Research area Main observations Example / references
Technology diffusion models describe market penetration over time
Lack of a single model that discusses tech regimes
Pry et al, 1971; Stier, 1983; Sharif et al, 1982
Technology clusters and regimes concepts define networks, and determinants
Lack of model applicable to Indian context
Rosenkopf, 1998; Kemp, 1997; Jacobsson et al, 2000
Studies in transport and energy sectors; link between env policy and technical change
Research at systemic level – opportunities for integrated solutions; lack of studies linking env policies and transport technology changes
Soares, 2001; Site, 2001; Bose, 1998
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Components of framework
Hierarchical conceptualization of technology and technological change
Environmental policy
Outcomes – environmental benefits, market development
Technology diffusion, market response
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Framework policy – tech change
Outcome(Environmental benefits, market, technology)
Policy stage Use stage
Ancillary infrastructure
Requires and involves technology, systems and regime
Individual decision
Public perception
Decision making
Regulators
Stage 1 Stage 2
Actors, responsible for use
Set of enablers (standards)
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Framework explanation
Stage 1 – Policy stage acts as the “Policy-push” to facilitate change
An enabling stage, may not be sufficient
Stage 2 – Provides “Market-pull” to implement and achieve results of the policies
Ensures availability of ancillary infrastructure – represented as a technology regime with clearly defined determinantsDeterminants are complementary, interdependentIndividual decisions dependent on availability of ancillary infrastructure
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Technology System
Technology-based regime
Technology Product / Process
Changes in end-use, in one application area, environmental benefits
Increase in infrastructure, complementing technologies, defined application area
New business, developing institutions, governing organizations, involvement of banks, defined market, complementing applications
Technology hierarchy - ancillary infrastructure
(References: Kemp 1997, Jacobsson, 2000)
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Theoretical description
Technology change
Technology system change
Technology regime change
Technology regime change
Authors (Stier, 1983) (Rotmans et al, 2002)
(Kathuria, 1999)
(Geels, 2002)
Level of describing change
Micro (singe production process)
Macro (long-range societal changes)
Micro (single process – CNC machines)
Macro (long-range technology change)
Constituents of framework
Increasing share of the technology in the pulp and paper industry
Technology, economy, institutions, ecology, culture, behavior, belief system
Component supplier, user, competition in the export and domestic market, participation in fairs, exhibitions, patents disclosure
Financial network, suppliers, user and producer groups, research network, societal groups, public authorities
Examples of technology - regimes
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Transport regime around a fuel
Components of regime changes
Example: Fuel use policyInspection and maintenance Retrofit standardizationInterventions by courts
Policy and standardizationIndicators: Directives and standards
Example: Lower vehicular pollutionHealth benefits
Societal benefitsIndicator: Public healthMortality
Example: Fuel availabilityEngine retrofit techniques
Technology and technology system Indicators:
Complementary technologies, regimes
Example: Infrastructure companies, user benefits, increasing businesses and investments
Developing institutions, markets
Indicators: Increase in indigenous mfg, ROI for users and suppliers
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Variable What is represented Technology and technological changes
Clear, identified individual technologies, evolving complementarity in the technologies Increase in CNG network developed, average queuing time in a month (relative queuing time - compared to conventional fuel)
Policy changes and standardization
Captures the legislative directives in the proposed fuel-switching options Evolving standards in the existing products and systems
Developing markets and institutions
Share of indigenously manufactured components in the CNG supply and use Share (cost) of indigenously manufactured components in product chain Return on investment (ROI), changes over time or rate of change of net disposable income for individual operators Return on investment for infrastructure developers
Societal benefits Identified and measured environmental benefits, reduced health impacts Representation by the public interest groups and the resulting changes in the policy, infrastructure
Framework variables - quantification
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Growth in use of CNG in transportation fuel
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f ve
hic
les
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
CNG taxicabs and cars CNG 3-wheelers CNG buses
Pollution test made mandatoryInstitution of Lal Committee
Taxicab owners granted an extension till March 2001
Direction to set CNG stations in South Mumbai
Higher compliance check1992 - Writ Petition in the courtBy Smoke Affected Residents’ Forum
Mumbai: A clear link evident between the court regulations and the increasing vehicles and sale
Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2001 2002
Year
No.
of v
ehic
les
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Buses - DTC Buses - Private Minibuses Private cars Taxicabs 3-wheelers
Supreme court ruling on phase Out (Buses, Autos, Taxicabs)Time limit set for Mar 31, 2001
Time extension till Sept 2001
August 2001 – Govt. directed to ensure supplyOct 2001 – DTC and school buses given time extension till Jan 31, 2002
April - Rejects plea for further time extensionDisclosure of data on reduced emissions with CNG
1995 - Writ Petition in the courtBy Mr. MC Mehta
1995 1998 2000 2001 2001 2002
Events
Year
Tracking policy and year – New Delhi
Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies
Distinct policy steps to ensure supply of CNG as a fuel
Steady increase in the vehicles converted to CNG, conversion of buses to CNG at a larger scale than that in Mumbai
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Mumbai:CNG sale increased many-folds, but not sufficient to cater to the entire fleet
New Delhi:CNG sale increased many-folds, but not sufficient to cater to the entire fleet
Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies
CNG sales growth Kgs per month
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
Sep-9
9
Dec-9
9
Mar
-00
Jun-
00
Sep-0
0
Dec-0
0
Mar
-01
Jun-
01
Sep-0
1
Dec-0
1
Mar
-02
Month- year
Kgs
per
mon
th C
NG
sal
es
CNG Sales in Mumbai
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
Kgs
/mon
th C
NG
sal
e
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies
Success rate of policy / implementation - observations
- Supply constraint resulted in chaotic conditions in both the cities (media reports, CNG demand forecast for the vehicle fleet – much more than the actual supply)
- Policies alone did not provide the sufficiency condition for “use”, though it resulted in conversion / engine retrofits
- Drivers pushing CNG sales up include pricing policies resulting in economic benefits to users, lesser queuing time at the filling stations, availability of conversion kits, financing
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies
New Delhi Mumbai
Specific policy measure Policy thrust with Court intervention
Enabling condition
Evolution of technological system Shift from import to local suppliersEvolving markets Evolution of public-private partnershipsUser benefits Economic benefits with fuel switch-over
Differences in “fleet-management”, refueling time
Evolving enterprises Corporatized public Foreign direct entities investment in a joint
venture companyTechnology / systems Similar supply chain in both cities, higher level
of quality assurance in MumbaiPolitical will Political support in both the cases
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
Case studies Enabling policy condition(Policy push)
Presence of ancillary infrastructure (Market pull)
CNG use in Mumbai √ √
CNG use in New Delhi √ √
Unleaded gasoline in India and Thailand
√
Multi-point fuel injection √
Case studies used in validation: CNG use in Mumbai and New Delhi, Unleaded gasoline in India and Thailand, Multi-point fuel injection
Clear evidence of interaction with the policy and a clearly identified technology regime
Discussion – case studies
Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004
- Proposed framework validated with qualitative data- Case studies in other developing countries may show
different features- Data gaps on the improvement in ambient air quality- Other factors like industrial and commercial sector
would have a bearing on improved air quality- Case studies represent “specific” fuel switching
options, for a comprehensive fuel switching policy, framework will have to be different
Limitations
Other merits of the case studies:Use in other socio-technical experiments, learning for other options in alternate fuel use
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