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LTLS – AtmosphereReconstructing past N (and S) deposition in the UK & future projections
Tomlinson S.J.1, Carnell E.J.1, Dore A.J.1, Misselbrook T.H.2*,
Sutton M.A.1 and Dragosits U.1
1 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB2 Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (*in-kind contribution)
ud@ceh.ac.uk
Introduction – Atmospheric component
Natural terrestrialecosystems
Agriculturalecosystems
Erosion &Leaching
Rivers Lakes Groundwater
Atmospheric N Deposition Key tasks
• Historic emissions – quantify sources, source data & model spatial distribution
• Model time series of emissions & deposition• UK focus & European background• Analyse & interpret data• Publish results & collaborate on further work• Publish data
Present Day
• First population census data• Industrial Revolution
• Domestic coal use peak• Board of Agriculture established
• Large scale Haber-Bosch processing commences
• Increase in motor vehicles
Peak in sulphur emissions
• Peak NOx & NH3 emissions• Sulphur reducing
1950
1970
1990
20101900
1800
200+ years of history – emission sources
View of Leeds. Overlooking Kirkstall Road (Cohen & Ruston (1912).
Gas PhaseCO2, CO, NOx,
SO2, HCN, NH3…
Aerosol PhaseOrg, NO3
-, NH4+,
SO42-, Cl-
Fuels
Wood
Peat
Coal
low-temperature domestic combustion, traditional burning practices/fuels
Output: emission per kg fuel
Great Smog of 1952
Pig density
London horse buses
Town gas
19th century livestock weigh bridges
DUKES historical power station data
Seabird guano industry
Historic emission trends 1800-2010
NHx emissions (kt NH3)agriculture (livestock manures, fertiliser application)waste processing (composting, anaerobic digestion, sewage, etc.)
SOx emissions (kt SO2)combustion of fossil fuels (industry, power generation)
NOy emissions (kt NO2) combustion of fossil fuels (mainly industry, transport)
SO2 important for atmospheric chemistry/deposition processes
European background & deposition modelling
Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model
Creating boundary conditions for a 5km FRAME-UK simulation
µg m-3
SO4
18001800 1900
1950 1970
1990 2010
Sulphur deposition 1800-2030
Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, domestic burning, mining, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Large power stations, road transport, peak SO2
International & national SO2 legislation
Grid square average deposition
Oxidised N deposition 1800-2030Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, domestic burning, mining, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Further increase in transport & industry, peak NOx
Large power stations, road transport
International & national legislation
Main sources:• Combustion• Motorised
transport• Industry
Grid square average deposition
Reduced N deposition 1800-2030
Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, livestock, domestic burning, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Further agricultural intensification, transport & industry, peak NH3
fertiliser input increasing & associated agricultural production
Small decrease in NH3 (mainly fewer animals, less fertiliser applied, some mitigation, e.g. IED)
Main source:Agriculture (livestock & fertilisers)
Grid square average deposition
Temporal trends in N deposition 1800-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
ktN
ye
ar-1 Total N
Reduced N
Oxidised N
Conclusions
• N & S deposition increased hugely during 19/20th
centuries
• S deposition – emission reductions a big policy success!
• Recent considerable decreases (since ~1990) in total N
deposition mainly due to NOx emission reductions
following international legislation (e.g. combustion plants,
catalytic converters). Partial success story, in progress.
• Reduced N (ammonia) now largest source of N
deposition, largely unchanged & predicted to remain stable
• Changing spatial patterns and composition of N deposition
Acknowledgements
Online datasets:
Vision of Britain, Edina Agricultural Census, Defra UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Contributions:
David Simpson (Norwegian Meteorological Institute & Chalmers University of Technology)
Maciej Kryza (University of Wroclaw)
Agricultural ammonia emissions
2010
Agricultural NH3 Emissions
kg NH3N ha-1 yr-1
≤ 10
> 10 - 100
> 100 - 500
> 500 - 1,000
> 1,000
Analysis of N deposition components
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
ye
ar-1
NHx total NOy total N total
Oxidised/reduced N deposition 1800-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
ye
ar-1
N total N wet N dry
Wet/Dry N deposition 1800-2030
0
50
100
150
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
yea
r-1
NHx dry NOy dry NHx wet NOy wet
Components of N deposition (wet NOx, dry NOx, wet NHx, dry NHx)
Components of N Deposition (1970)
Grid square average deposition estimates
(i.e. taking account of land cover)
NOyWet Deposition
NOyDry Deposition
NHxWet Deposition
NHxDry Deposition
Total N Deposition
N Deposition
kg N ha-1 yr-1
≤ 2.5
> 2.5 - 5
> 5 - 10
> 10 - 15
> 15 - 25
> 25
Oxidised nitrogen Reduced nitrogen
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