london market overview - elysian
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London Market OverviewProspects in a Brexit world
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
51.9%LEAVE
48.1%REMAIN
71.8%TURNOUT
REFERENDUMVote Tally
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
IMMIDIATE ISSUES
POLITICALSTABILISATION BOND YIELDS
DEBT MARKETSAND CREDIT
BANK LIQUIDITY
INTERESTRATES
CURRENCY
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum - What Happens Now?
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
• FortheUKtoleaveithastotriggerArticle50
• FormalunequivocaldeclarationbytheUKGovernment
• Twoyeartimescalefornegotiation
• Unlikelytobeginuntilinformalnegotiationshavebegun
London Residential MarketSo what does it mean for residential?
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
UNDERLYING REASONSpeople invest in London remain strong
London as a ‘safe haven’
Strong legal structure, assetprotection & multi-cultural society
Ease of global access with 4 main airports in close proximity
Centrally located betweenAsia & North America
%
Population increase
Low interest rates
Robust economy
World class education
Favourable exchange rates
Favourable time zone
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketEU referendum – Currency impacts
4/07/2016U
SD to
GB
P
25/06/2016
27/06/2016
16/06/2016
25/05/2016
15/05/2016
6/05/2016
26/04/2016
17/04/2016
8/04/2016
1.30
1.34
1.38
1.42
1.46
CURRENCY IMPACTS
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketEconomy remains robust
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.520
10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
%
FORECAST
Source: Oxford Economics
ECONOMY REMAINS ROBUST
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum London Residential Market
Universities have real pulling power
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Lond
on
Cam
brid
ge, U
SA
Los
Ange
les
New
Yor
k
Chi
cago
Bei
jing
Oxf
ord
Sta
nfor
d
Cam
brid
ge
Prin
ceto
n
Tim
es U
nive
rsity
rank
ings
: Com
bine
d sc
ore
in T
op 5
0
Combined score of top 50 universities Number of universities in top 50
Source: Times university rankings
UNIVERSITIES HAVE REAL PULLING POWER
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketPopulation
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
60.0
62.5
65.0
67.5
70.0
72.519
6519
6719
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
1520
1720
1920
2120
2320
2520
27
UK
Pop
ulat
ion
(mill
ions
)
UK Historical and Projected Population
Population Projection, zero migration Population Projection, low migration (185,000 pa)
Population Projection, principal projection Source: ONS
UK HISTORICAL & PROJECTED POPULATION
London Residential MarketOther Factors
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketStill a favourable tax regime
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Hong Kong Singapore New York City Paris London Shanghai or Beijing
Buy (stamp duty) Hold (property tax / council tax) Sell (capital gains + VAT if applicable)Source: CBRE research
STILL A FAVOURABLE TAX REGIME
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketHow global cities compare
Global connectedness (GaWc)
Performance & Potential (kearney) Power (Mori)
London Alpha++ 60.1 1519.8
New York Alpha++ 63.1 1384.1
Paris Alpha+ 52.9 1307.9
Tokyo Alpha+ 46.3 1290.4
Singapore Alpha+ 37.6 1207.4
Hong Kong Alpha+ 43.1 1084.6
Sydney Alpha+ 31.9 970.1
STILL A FAVOURABLE TAX REGIME
London Residential MarketSo what does this mean for residential?
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU ReferendumLondon Residential Market
New Build Sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2001
- 20
06 A
vera
ge
End
of 2
007
End
of 2
008
End
of 2
009
End
of 2
010
End
of 2
011
End
of 2
012
End
of 2
013
End
of 2
014
End
of 2
015
2016
Q1
Sale
s
Source: Molior
NEW BUILD SALES
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketHouse Price Index
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
Aver
age
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x(B
ase
= Ja
n 20
07)
Prime Central London London UK Source: Land Registry
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketLevelling off
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Month 1
Month 3
Month 5
Month 7
Month 9
Month 11
Month 13
Month 15
Month 17
Month 19
Month 21
Month 23
Month 25
Month 27
Month 29
Month 31
Month 33
Month 35
Month 37
Month 39
Month 41
Month 43
Month 45
Month 47
Month 49
Month 51
Month 53
Month 55
Month 57
Month 59
Month 61
Aver
age
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x
Current cycle Apr-11 to Apr-16 Previous cycle Mar-04 to May-09 Source:Land Registry
LEVELLING OFF
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketLondon Housing Supply – can we depict this in a nicer way?
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,00019
95-9
6
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
Num
ber o
f Com
pltio
ns
Housing Completions CBRE Estimated Required Target New London Plan Target
LONDON HOUSING SUPPLYcan we depict in a nicer way?
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
Global Residential MarketHouse Price Growth
Italy
3.8% So
uth
Kore
a11
.3%
Sout
h Af
rica
19.2
%Sw
itzer
land
37.6
%U
nite
d St
ates
53.2
%D
enm
ark
58.2
%Sp
ain
70.4
%Fi
nlan
d82
% Net
herla
nds
105.
6% Can
ada
133.
9%N
orw
ay14
4.6%
Fran
ce14
9% Belg
uim
174.
4%Ire
land
185.
5% Aust
ralia
221.
4%U
nite
d Ki
ngdo
m23
1.9%
Japa
n-1
4.5%
Ger
man
y-7
.8%
GLOBAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETHouse Price Growth
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketOutperforms other assets
Decade 57.9 4.7 13.0 82.0 -44.8 84.7
Year -0.7 -4.9 -2.5 -10.4 -36.3 12.4
CommoditiesS&P 500
Shares FTSE 100
Shares FTSEAll Share Gold Brent Crude London
Property
OUTPERFORMS OTHER ASSETS
London Residential MarketLocal Market Performance
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketLocal Market Performance
£0
£100,000
£200,000
£300,000
£400,000
£500,000
£600,000
£700,000
£800,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SW8 London
LOCAL MARKET PERFORMANCE
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
80
100
120
140
160
180
200Ja
n-07
Apr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08Ap
r-08
Jul-0
8O
ct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10Ap
r-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12Ap
r-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Ave
rage
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x (B
ase
= Ja
n 20
07)
Wandsworth London UK
London Residential MarketLocal Market PerformanceLOCAL MARKET PERFORMANCE
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketLocal Market Performance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Num
ber o
f sal
esLONDON MARKET PERFORMANCE
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketLocal Market Perfomance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Wandsworth Southwark Lambeth
Uni
ts u
nder
con
stru
ctio
n
Sold Unsold Proportion sold
Unit sales in schemes under construction
Proportion of unsoldcompleted stock
Wandsworth 2%
Lambeth 1%
Southwark 1%
Inner London 5%
Greater London 3%
LONDON MARKET PERFORMANCE
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketCBRE House Price Forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5 year growth 2016-20
UK 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 22%
London 5% 3% 5% 6% 6% 28%
Prime Central London 3% 4% 6% 6% 6% 28%
HOUSE PRICE FORECASTS
London Residential MarketOther Factors
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketRegeneration Premium
2.1% 5.7%
2.9%
6.7%
3.4%
8.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Aver
age
Annu
al G
row
th
Local Authority Growth Regeneration Uplift
Riversi
de Q
uarte
r
Southb
ank
N1 Islin
gton
North G
reenw
ich
Paddin
gton B
asin
Stratfo
rd
Woodb
erry P
ark
REGENERATION PREMIUM
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
Infrastructure opportunityCrossrail IINFASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITY
Crossrail 1
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
London Residential MarketNew Public TransportNEW PUBLIC TRANSPORT
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
What do residents want? CBRE Retail SurveyW h a t t y p e o f o u t l e t w o u l d y o u m o s t l i k e To h a v e i n y o u r r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t ?
Coffee shop/ Pastry
70%
54% 54%44%
36% 34%
Supermarket Restaurant Wine Bar ConvenienceStore
Delicacies
77%Good quality retail had a
‘strong positive’ impact on residential
91%‘Convenience’ was the main benefit of living around retail
83%Important to have a
strong retail offering
65%Preferred
independent stores
54%Said retail would make a
development more appealing
RETAIL SURVEYWhat type of outlet would you most like To have in your
residential development?
LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKETEU Referendum
What do residents want?CBRE Amenity Survey
M o s t s o u g h t a f t e r a m e n i t i e s
Concierge
Have & use regularly
89%Don’t have but would like
58%
Swimming Pool
Have & use regularly
28%Don’t have but would like
69%
Gym
Have & use regularly
46%Don’t have but would like
76%
WHAT DO RESIDENTS WANT?Amenity Survey - Most sought after amenities
Recommended post Brexit U.K. real estate opportunities.
Television CentreTelevison Centre is at the heart of the largest redevelopment in West London.
Slated as the most iconic redevelopment in London, Television Centre’s apartments and penthouses are at the centre of an enriching place. With all-day cafés and restaurants, television recordings and cinema screenings, health club, pool and spa, hotel, private gardens, and landscaped terraces with a programme of cultural events.
Part of the multi-billion pound regeneration in White City. It is a milestone in the transformation of 145-acre White City, with £8 billion of investment bringing more than 5,000 homes, a Harvard-style campus of academic excellence, a media village, an expanded Westfield shopping mall and the largest-ever John Lewis department store. Facilities include the Soho House, screening rooms, BBC live show studios, gym, spa, pool and concierge service.
The Buckingham
Situated directly opposite the Buckingham Palace, residents will enjoy a centrality of location that few others possess.
Located in St James’s Park and directly opposite Buckingham Palace, The Buckingham apartments enjoy a centrality of location that few others possess. They sit at the nexus of London, surrounded by the best of British history, power and culture. The open space surrounding The Buckingham also frames some of Europe’s most elegant and beloved architectural landmarks, broadest avenues and grandest Royal Parks.
The development offers 1 bedroom to 3 bedroom options will all modern living amenities as well as private access apartments.
One Nine ElmsSoaring over 56 storeys into the sky, One Nine Elms will offer its residents unrivalled views of London’s most famous landmarks, from The Shard and the London Eye, to Westminster Abbey and the Houses of Parliament. All of the apartments for sale are linked to a 5-star hotel with luxury amenities. Residents will enjoy access to a 24 hour concierge, a spacious gym, pool, spa and the 50th floor residents’ sky lounge and terrace, a truly unique space to entertain with London’s skyline as your backdrop.
Right next door to Vauxhall Underground station, with speedy transport links into London’s West End and the City, it is also walking distance to the transforming 3km of London’s riverside into an ultra-desirable residential quarter, international business district, and outstanding cultural and leisure destination.
THE
BUCKINGHAM
GetintouchwiththeElysianteamtofind
outmore:
Emaar Boulevard Plaza Tower 1, Suite 1602, Dubai, U.A.E.
+971 (0)4 278 3700www.elysianglobal.com
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