living in the past – what does colorado’s historic...
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Nolan DoeskenNolan DoeskenState Climatologist, Colorado Climate CenterState Climatologist, Colorado Climate Center
Atmospheric Science DepartmentAtmospheric Science DepartmentColorado State UniversityColorado State University
Presented at 17th Annual South Platte Forum, October 26, 2006, Longmont, Colorado
Prepared by Odie Bliss, Wendy Ryan and Daniel Denison
Living in the Past –What Does Colorado’s Historic
Weather Data Show Us?
Systematic weather data collection began in the South Platte Basin and in other parts
of Colorado in the early 1870s
Denver November 19Denver November 19--25, 187125, 1871
In the 1880s the Colorado legislature approved and funded
the “Colorado Meteorological
Association” to better monitor and document the climatic resources
of our young state.
In 1890 the USDA took over the responsibilities of climate
monitoring on a national level, and the first civilian weather service
was formed –the U.S. Weather Bureau
Colorado Weather Stations in 1890
Since then, the U.S. Weather Bureau/National Weather Service has faithfully maintained an oft taken for
granted network of weather stations in Colorado and across the country – the Cooperative Observer Network
Photo by Christopher Davey
From Kelly Redmond, WRCC
National Weather Service Cooperative Network
In recent years, many other organizations have gotten involved in weather measurements
» (show your slide of assorted weather stations by various orgs.)
The NWS stations remain the backbone network for long-term
climate monitoring
Colorado average annual precipitation map
What have we learned from nearly 120 years of continuous
climate monitoring in the South Platte Basin?
Winters are consistently colder than summers –☺
Average Monthly Temperatures (1971-2000) for Selected Stations in the South Platte
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Boulder Denver Sterling Evergreen Berthoud Pass
Temperatures are far more stable than precipitation. In fact most other
climatic elements (humidity, wind, sunshine and cloudiness, evaporation, etc.) are much more consistent from
one year to the next than precipitation.
Akron 4E Annual Precipitation Totals
5
10
15
20
25
30
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
Akron 4E Average Mean Temperatures
35
40
45
50
55
60
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Precipitation varies by as much as 400% from a very dry year to a very wet year
Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation(1890 through 2006)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Month
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
Drought Visits Our Area Regularly
Photo by NRCS
Colorado Statewide Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitationfrom 1896 - 2006
5
10
15
20
25
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
Colorado Statewide Water Year Precipitation
Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI
(1890 - Sep 2006)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890
1892
1895
1897
1900
1902
1905
1907
1910
1912
1915
1917
1920
1922
1925
1927
1930
1932
1935
1937
1940
1942
1945
1947
1950
1952
1955
1957
1960
1962
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1980
1982
1985
1987
1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
Year
Frac
tion
(in p
erce
nt)
Confidently detecting climatic trends is much more challenging and
difficult than determining spatial
patterns, seasonal cycles, or year-to-year
variations
Denver (all 3 stations) Monthly Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
7018
70
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Denver City Tmax Denver WSFO Tmax DIA Tmax
Denver City Tmin Denver WSFO Tmin DIA Tmin
We can find many frustrating limitations to our climate records –
• Changing instrumentation,
• Aging weather observers,
• Changing environments around our weather stations,
• Changing weather station locations,
• Automation, etc.
Dillon Annual PrecipitationDillon Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
Fort Collins Winter TemperaturesFort Collins Water Year Average Temperatures
for Winter (Oct-Apr)
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
ree
F)
Colorado Springs minus CheesmanTemperature Difference
Colorado Springs minus Cheesman Average Temperatures
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Tem
pera
ture
Diff
eren
ce (d
eg F
)
Colorado Springs AP-Cheesman MMNT Colorado Springs AP-Cheesman MMXT
Still, our climate records are more complete, consistent, and widespread than nearly all other forms of long-term environmental monitoring
(i.e. we shouldn’t whine).
Kassler Winter TemperaturesKassler Winter (DJF)
Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
YEAR
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Winter Tmax Winter Tmin
Kassler Summer TemperaturesKassler Summer (JJA)
Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
YEAR
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Summer Tmax Summer Tmin
If climate is changing (man caused or otherwise), it will still be a long time before we can tell if
our precipitation patterns are changing.
Recently, upward trends in seasonal temperatures have
become noticeable in parts of Colorado
That may be significant for water users/planners whether or not
precipitation is changing
Grand Lake, CO Winter Daily Minimum Temperature Distribution (5 degree bins)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Temperature Bin
Freq
uenc
y
Frequency 1950-1961Frequency 1961-1972Frequency 1972-1983Frequency 1983-1994Frequency 1994-2005
Grand Lake, CO Spring Daily Maximum Temperature Distribution (5 degree bins)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Temperature bin
Freq
uenc
y
Frequency 1951-1961Frequency 1962-1972Frequency 1973-1983Frequency 1984-1994Frequency 1995-2005
What should we do??
Always plan for drought!Fraction of Colorado in Drought
Based on 48 month SPI(1890 - Sep 2006)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890
1892
1895
1897
1900
1902
1905
1907
1910
1912
1915
1917
1920
1922
1925
1927
1930
1932
1935
1937
1940
1942
1945
1947
1950
1952
1955
1957
1960
1962
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1980
1982
1985
1987
1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
Year
Frac
tion
(in p
erce
nt)
And have your rain gauge ready
CoCoRaHS Statewide Precipitation October 21, 2006
CoCoRaHSBoulder County
PrecipitationOctober 21, 2006
If you are a chronic weather watcher or water worrier (or warrior) and you
aren’t already a part of CoCoRaHS,
please see me at the break or at lunch.
For More Information, Visit theCoCoRaHS Web Site
Support for this project provided by NSF Informal Science Education Program, NOAA Environmental Literacy Programandmany local charter sponsors.
http://www.cocorahs.org
Colorado Climate CenterData and Power Point Presentations available for downloading
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu
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