let's predict the future: e1 scenario planning

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E: Scenario planning

Let’s Predict the Future!

A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis

Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY)

E1: Let’s Predict the Future:

Scenario Planning

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Review

We have:• Heard about the approaches for detecting signals

of new technological developments.• Heard about the importance of open processes

for discussing the implications of the evidence.• Used a Delphi process for identifying

technological developments which you feel to be important.

• Presented cases giving reasons why these areas should be investigated further.

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But What Of Our Organisation?

How will our organisations respond to:• The technological developments we have

identified? • Unforeseen technological developments?• Political, social, economic and cultural

changes?

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Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is:• A strategic planning method that some organisations

use to make flexible long-term plans.• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods

used by military intelligence.

Processes:• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios• Step 5 - write the scenarios• Step 6 - identify issues arising From http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Scenario_planning

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Future of Libraries

Possible scenarios

Commercialisation Devolved ownership

Everyone’s a librarianThe niche librarian

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Scenario 1: Commercialisation

By 2018:• Libraries had responded by financial

pressures by making significant use of commercial services

• Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits

In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario

is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?

Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?

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Scenario 2: Devolution

By 2018:• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due

to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …• There was a move towards small-scale services

which were owned/managed by trusted organisations

In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this

scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?

Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?

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Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian

By 2018:• The majority are now connected using social networks

and are comfortable in using the services• Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging

resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many.• The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned

In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this

scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?

Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?

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Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian

By 2018:• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library

schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts

• The professional body asked its few remaining members for their thoughts on the future of the profession

In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this

scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?

Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?

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Scenario 5: Your Own Scenario

You may choose to :• Define a scenario which will mean a changed

environment for your organisation by 2018 • Provide a brief summary of the scenario and

then address the issues below

In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this

scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?

Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?

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Scenarios

Possible scenarios

Commercialisation Devolved ownership

Everyone’s a librarianThe niche librarian

Your own scenario

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Group Exercise

You should now:• Address one of these scenarios.• Give a report on your discussions.

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Questions

Any questions?