learning scenarios

Learning Scenarios

Willem Manders

Hans de Zwart

Laura Overton

Charles Jennings

David Mallon

“Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present”

"When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed"

http://learningscenarios.org

@lrnscen #lrnscen

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Today (from 10:00 – 13:00)Workshop participants

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

This afternoonWillem, Hans and interested others

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

During the conferenceAll Business Educa participants

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

After the conferenceEverybody individually + teleconference

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Identifying driving forces

adapted from Kees van der Heijden

The Systems Iceberg

(adapted from Peter Senge)

News events

Patterns of systembehaviour (Trends)

Deep system structure(Driving Forces)

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Uncertainties...

In 60 minutes:

Time horizon: 5 – 10 years out (2015-2020)

1. Brainstorm key trends and uncertainties

Make sure to capture extreme outcomes:

2. Cluster, prioritise and eliminate duplicates

3. Report back to the whole group

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

In 60 minutes:

1. Put two key independent uncertainties in a matrix

2. Describe scenario characteristics for each quadrant

3. Create a name for each quadrant

4. Report back to the whole group

What is next?

We will consolidate the scenarios and present them tomorrow

We need your help!

Our minimum requirements:

1. A newspaper headline for 2020

2. Three signals from the conference

that relate to a particular scenario

3. Reflection on how this impacts your strategy

Touch base Friday afternoon...

Touch (virtual) base in two months?

Sunset in SarasotaBy Flickr user livingonimpulseLicensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) license

Chatham house© 2011 Google

Past and Future© Alex Slobodkin (licensed via istockphoto)

Tip of the iceberg© paul kline (licensed via istockphoto)

Decision making© mattjeacock (licensed via istockphoto)

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