land use change and other factors affecting climate change benefits of sugarcane ethanol in brazil...

Land Use Change and Other Factors Affecting Climate Change Benefits of Sugarcane Ethanol in

Brazil

Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE)Task 38 Brazilian National Team Leader

Australia, November 25-26, 2013

Manoel Regis L.V. Leal

Contents

• LUC/ILUC issues– Origins– Impact assessments: uncertainties

• Sugarcane ethanol in Brazil– Countries emissions profile– Ways to control LUC

LUC and ILUC: Why Bother?

• It is required by RED, RFS2, LCFS and other legislations

• They can represent significant impacts on GHG emissions, biodiversity, food security, water balance and quality, soil organic matter (SOM)

What Causes LUC?• Land available for ag-expansion without deforestation (previously

cleared, underutilized) = 500 to 4000 million hectares(1)

This circle size reflects 1500

• Global land area impacts:[million hectares per year] – Fire = 330-430 (2) est. 380– Dev./Urban exp. (1) = 1.5– LUC bioenergy est. (3) = 0.2

too small to be visible(1) Enormous range due to pasture, grassland,

marginal land estimatesSources: (1) Kline et al. 2009; calc. by author based on FAO 2007. (2) Giglio et al. 2010; Randerson 2013. (3) Tyner et al. 2010 (3 m ha total over 14 years = 0.2 M ha each year)

Where LUC GHG Emissions Come From?

Source: Tipper, Hutchinson, Brander, 2009

LUC emissions from biofuels represent only 1% of the total!

Some Facts

• Although LUC emissions from biofuels can be significant in their LCA emissions, they represent only 1% of the global LUC emissions;

• Biofuels occupied only 0.5% (27 Mha) of the managed land in 2007 (1,500 Mha arable land plus 3,400 Mha of pasture) and 2% of the arable land in the world;

• ILUC GHG emissions calculations are still under hot debate.

LUC GHG Emissions (g CO2e/MJ)Source Maize Ethanol Soya Biodiesel

Searchinger et al. (2008) 156 165-270

CARB (2009) 45 63

EPA (2010) 47 54

Hertel et al. (2010) 40 -

Tyner et al. (2010) 21 -

IFPRI MIRAGE (2010) 54 75

Source: EC COM (2010) 811 Final

EPA – 1st round

EPA – 2nd round

Some Reasons For Differences

• Different assumptions and data base, low disaggregation levels;

• Different methodologies: co-products impacts, CGE/PE and allocation models, elasticities, yields, land price;

What Needs to Be Done?

• To reduce LUC/ILUC– Public policies to manage LU– Technology improvements to increase yields and reduce

impacts

• To improve LUC/ILUC analysis– Continue to develop better models– Produce disaggregated data for the local conditions

Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil

• Country’s LU• Country’s GHG emissions inventory• PP to reduce LUC and impacts• Technology development• GHG LCA

Land Use in Brazil

Brazilian GHG Inventory (2005)

Sector GWP (Tg CO2e) Share (%)

Energy 328.8 15.0

Industry 77.9 3.6

Agriculture 415.8 18.9

Land use change and forest 1,329.1 60.6

Waste treatment 41.0 1.9

Total 2,194.6 100.0

Source: Brazil Second Communication to UNFCCC (MCT, 2010)

Main Public Policies

• National Plan of Climate Change (PNMC)• Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC)• Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning

Deforestation Reduction Commitment

Low Carbon AgricultureTechnology Area Increase (Mha)

Degraded Pasture Recovery 15

Agriculture/Livestock/Forest Integration 4

No-Tillage Cropping 8

Biological Nitrogen Fixation 5.5

Planted Forrest 3

Animal Waste Treatment 4.4

Loans available for implementing these technologies

Degraded Pasture

Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion

Source: Adami et al., 2012

Agricultural and Pasture Area Outlook

Pasture Area Outlook

Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning

Source: EMBRAPA, 2009

64.5 Mha of land availablefor sugarcane planting with low impacts.It represents only 7.5% of Brazil total area

Technology Improvements to Reduce LUC

• Sugarcane breeding: conventional and GM;• Low impact mechanization: reduce soil

compaction and allow no-tillage planting;• Crop management: precision agriculture,

increase plant density, irrigation, N fixation.

Goals: increase yields and reduce fossil energy use

October2002

Redução da Distância Entre Linhas

Row spacing (m)

Today (Brazil) Initial Target(CTBE)

Final Comments• LUC is a critical issue for biofuels;• The methods and data used to assess its impacts

need to be highly improved;• Biofuels LUC should be considered integrated with

other LUC causes; the dynamics for deforestation and other causes need to be better understood and managed;

• Public Policies and technology development are important tools to reduce LUC impacts.

THANK YOU!

regis.leal@bioetanol.org.br

Energy and GHG Balances For Sugarcane Ethanol

Source: Macedo et al., 2008

GHG Emissions OutlookEnergy Sector

Planted Area (1st crop) by Region