land use change and other factors affecting climate change benefits of sugarcane ethanol in brazil...
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Land Use Change and Other Factors Affecting Climate Change Benefits of Sugarcane Ethanol in
Brazil
Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE)Task 38 Brazilian National Team Leader
Australia, November 25-26, 2013
Manoel Regis L.V. Leal
Contents
• LUC/ILUC issues– Origins– Impact assessments: uncertainties
• Sugarcane ethanol in Brazil– Countries emissions profile– Ways to control LUC
LUC and ILUC: Why Bother?
• It is required by RED, RFS2, LCFS and other legislations
• They can represent significant impacts on GHG emissions, biodiversity, food security, water balance and quality, soil organic matter (SOM)
What Causes LUC?• Land available for ag-expansion without deforestation (previously
cleared, underutilized) = 500 to 4000 million hectares(1)
This circle size reflects 1500
• Global land area impacts:[million hectares per year] – Fire = 330-430 (2) est. 380– Dev./Urban exp. (1) = 1.5– LUC bioenergy est. (3) = 0.2
too small to be visible(1) Enormous range due to pasture, grassland,
marginal land estimatesSources: (1) Kline et al. 2009; calc. by author based on FAO 2007. (2) Giglio et al. 2010; Randerson 2013. (3) Tyner et al. 2010 (3 m ha total over 14 years = 0.2 M ha each year)
Where LUC GHG Emissions Come From?
Source: Tipper, Hutchinson, Brander, 2009
LUC emissions from biofuels represent only 1% of the total!
Some Facts
• Although LUC emissions from biofuels can be significant in their LCA emissions, they represent only 1% of the global LUC emissions;
• Biofuels occupied only 0.5% (27 Mha) of the managed land in 2007 (1,500 Mha arable land plus 3,400 Mha of pasture) and 2% of the arable land in the world;
• ILUC GHG emissions calculations are still under hot debate.
LUC GHG Emissions (g CO2e/MJ)Source Maize Ethanol Soya Biodiesel
Searchinger et al. (2008) 156 165-270
CARB (2009) 45 63
EPA (2010) 47 54
Hertel et al. (2010) 40 -
Tyner et al. (2010) 21 -
IFPRI MIRAGE (2010) 54 75
Source: EC COM (2010) 811 Final
EPA – 1st round
EPA – 2nd round
Some Reasons For Differences
• Different assumptions and data base, low disaggregation levels;
• Different methodologies: co-products impacts, CGE/PE and allocation models, elasticities, yields, land price;
What Needs to Be Done?
• To reduce LUC/ILUC– Public policies to manage LU– Technology improvements to increase yields and reduce
impacts
• To improve LUC/ILUC analysis– Continue to develop better models– Produce disaggregated data for the local conditions
Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil
• Country’s LU• Country’s GHG emissions inventory• PP to reduce LUC and impacts• Technology development• GHG LCA
Land Use in Brazil
Brazilian GHG Inventory (2005)
Sector GWP (Tg CO2e) Share (%)
Energy 328.8 15.0
Industry 77.9 3.6
Agriculture 415.8 18.9
Land use change and forest 1,329.1 60.6
Waste treatment 41.0 1.9
Total 2,194.6 100.0
Source: Brazil Second Communication to UNFCCC (MCT, 2010)
Main Public Policies
• National Plan of Climate Change (PNMC)• Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC)• Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning
Deforestation Reduction Commitment
Low Carbon AgricultureTechnology Area Increase (Mha)
Degraded Pasture Recovery 15
Agriculture/Livestock/Forest Integration 4
No-Tillage Cropping 8
Biological Nitrogen Fixation 5.5
Planted Forrest 3
Animal Waste Treatment 4.4
Loans available for implementing these technologies
Degraded Pasture
Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion
Source: Adami et al., 2012
Agricultural and Pasture Area Outlook
Pasture Area Outlook
Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning
Source: EMBRAPA, 2009
64.5 Mha of land availablefor sugarcane planting with low impacts.It represents only 7.5% of Brazil total area
Technology Improvements to Reduce LUC
• Sugarcane breeding: conventional and GM;• Low impact mechanization: reduce soil
compaction and allow no-tillage planting;• Crop management: precision agriculture,
increase plant density, irrigation, N fixation.
Goals: increase yields and reduce fossil energy use
October2002
Redução da Distância Entre Linhas
Row spacing (m)
Today (Brazil) Initial Target(CTBE)
Final Comments• LUC is a critical issue for biofuels;• The methods and data used to assess its impacts
need to be highly improved;• Biofuels LUC should be considered integrated with
other LUC causes; the dynamics for deforestation and other causes need to be better understood and managed;
• Public Policies and technology development are important tools to reduce LUC impacts.
Energy and GHG Balances For Sugarcane Ethanol
Source: Macedo et al., 2008
GHG Emissions OutlookEnergy Sector
Planted Area (1st crop) by Region