labour force survey boukje janssen, 16-05-2013. contents lfs design lfs figures monthly estimates...

Labour Force SurveyBoukje Janssen, 16-05-2013

Contents

• LFS Design• LFS Figures• Monthly Estimates with Time Series Models• Redesign LFS• Remote Acces Files > future developments

Labour Force Survey 2

Labour Force Survey 3

Panel Design LFS

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Labour Force Survey 4

Quarterly Estimates

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Respons 15-64: E,d,c,b,a ~ 80 thousand persons

Labour Force Survey 5

Yearly Estimates

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Average of 4 estimates of ~ 80 thousand persons

Labour Force Survey 6

Yearly Estimates per Wave

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Respons 15-64: c,d,e,f ~ 55 thousand persons

Labour Force Survey 7

Quarterly Flow Estimates

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Respons 15-64: e,d,c,b ~ 55 thousand persons

Yearly Flow Estimates

Labour Force Survey 8

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Respons 15-64: a,b,c,d ~ 55 thousand persons

Monthly Estimates

Labour Force Survey 9

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave

1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Five series of estimates

Structural Time Series Model

What we do with STM:

Improve estimates with sample data from the past

Explicit modelling of panel bias

Modelling autocorrelation between waves

Labour Force Survey 10

Month t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t

Wave

1 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t

2 t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3

3 t-10 t-9 t-8 t-7 t-6

4 t-13 t-12 t-11 t-10 t-9

5 t-16 t-15 t-14 t-13 t-12

Monthly Estimates by STM

Labour Force Survey 11

= Monthly estimates STM (trend and including seasonal effect)

GREG estimates each month each wave

(panel) Bias

Sampling error (variance, autocorrelation)

+

-

-

Monthly Figures

Labour Force Survey 12

Consistency

Labour Force Survey 13

Employed and unemployed labour force:

Monthly estimates

=

Quarterly estimates

=

Yearly estimates

=

Flow estimates (start- and end-point)

Redesign LFS

Labour Force Survey 14

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1 F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Before 2010:

Redesign LFS

Labour Force Survey 15

2010 - 2012

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1 F2F/Tel A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Redesign LFS

Labour Force Survey 16

2012 - …

Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wave1 Web/F2F/TelA B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h

Remote Acces Files > future developments

• Timeliness (quarterly)

• More comparable with files for CBS users e.g. classifications for publication

• Linked to other sources (registrations etc.)

Labour Force Survey 17

Questions ??