keynote speech ii: “a look at international network capacity and traffic trends in africa over the...
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Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | www.telegeography.com | info@telegeography.com
International Bandwidth Trends in Africa
What Has (and Hasn’t) Changed in the Past Five Years
Patrick ChristianAugust 27, 2015
Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | www.telegeography.com | info@telegeography.com
Let’s Start with the Global Picture Inter-Regional Internet Bandwidth, 2015
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Shift Away from the U.S.Regional Capacity Connected to the U.S. & Canada, 2006-2015
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Growth Has SlowedInternational Internet Bandwidth Global Growth
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Private Networks Have Grown
International Internet, Private Network, and Switched Voice Capacity
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IP Transit Prices Still DroppingMedian 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities
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Submarine Capacity Growth2002 - 2015
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2002
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2010
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2015
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The Future
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Lots of New Capacity in AfricaInternational Internet Bandwidth Growth - Africa
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Even Faster Growth in SSAInt’l Internet Bandwidth Growth – Sub-Saharan Africa
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Africa is the Fastest Growing Region
International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2011-2015
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What Has Changed?• Sub capacity reaches 33 countries vs
just 10 before 2009 (60 landing points vs 12)
• Seven countries have access to 3 or more cables
• Africa is world’s fastest growing region for Internet bandwidth growth over last five years
• Int’l Internet capacity increased more that 400% since 2011 (500% in SSA)
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(Still) Mostly Connected to EuropeMajor International Internet Routes in Africa, 2015
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Where in Europe? France & UK (Still)
Share of Int’l Internet Bandwidth Connected to Africa
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Europe Has Become the Hub Not Just for Africa…
Changes in Subregional Capacity Connected to Europe
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Intra-Africa Connectivity Growth
Share of Africa Int’l Internet Bandwidth by Region, 2011 vs 2015
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Growth of Small Routes Country-to-Country Routes to Europe vs Within Africa 2015
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Transit and Transport Pricing
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IP Transit Port Prices Q2 2015Median STM-1 IP Transit Prices in Africa, Q2 2015
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Transport Prices Rapidly Decreasing
Median STM-1 Monthly Lease Prices in Africa, 2012-2015
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African Routes in Line with Other Major (High Cost) Routes
Median STM-1 IPL Price Trends on Major London Routes
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Some Prices Have Not Dropped…
Nigeria
Kenya
South Africa
Retail Residential Fixed Broadband Prices (1 & 2 Mbps Plans)
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3G Mobile Subs Growing3G & 4G Mobile Subscribers in Africa, 2010-2014
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What Hasn’t Changed for Africa?• African Internet capacity is still a small
fraction of total global capacity– Int’l capacity connected to Africa only accounts
for 1-2% global bandwidth• Int’l bandwidth remains primarily on the
coast and connected to Europe– Little cross-border capacity, terrestrial networks
• IP transit prices in Africa remain very high– Lowest median price $75 per Mbps for an STM-
1 vs where 10 Gbps increments are available, prices rarely exceed $25 per Mbps and are below $1 in Europe & the U.S.
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Sum Up of Changes…• Int’l Internet bandwidth within Africa
has a larger share– Intra-Africa capacity 10% vs 2% in 2011
• Growth in number of routes between African countries (under 1Gbps)– Account for 2/3 small routes
• Wholesale IPT & IPL prices have dropped– IPT prices reflect the cost of transport to a
hub country, so as transport prices fall so will IPT; however, cross connect and backhaul fees remain expensive
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Outlook• The surge of sub cable construction is
largely over and has infused the region with a significant amount of lit and potential capacity
• Terrestrial regional network construction has started to take off, already see increase in intra-African capacity
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Outlook continued - Some Numbers• Global int’l Internet bandwidth CAGR is
forecast to be 29% between 2014-2021• Africa will be the fastest growing region
during this period with demand growing at a pace of 44% per year
• Demand driven by 3G & 4G mobile subscription growth - 200m (2015) to 573m (2019) from 23% of total subs to 42%
• Anticipate Africa IP transit prices to decline at a compounded annual rate of 29% slightly higher than the global average of 25%
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Patrick ChristianSenior Analyst
pchristian@telegeography.com
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