jane winn jane@thebeatnews thebeatnews

Jane Winnjane@thebeatnews.org www.thebeatnews.org

Who Is This Pipelines For?

Electric power generation Residential and business NG customers have firm

contracts. (this is not propane, that’s different) Power industry buys NG on the spot market. NESCOE wants New England Electric

Ratepayers to pay to BUILD this pipeline Storage Export?

FERC Site: Proposed Import Terminals

FERC Site: Proposed Export Terminals

The Claim(Why We Need The Pipeline)

Natural Gas Is: Clean Cheap Reliable We need it

CLEAN? Compared To What?

CO2 Output (pounds/MWh)

Avg. Natural Gas Plant in MA: 1,210Avg. for all sources in MA for 2012: 910

MA Statutory Goals For Carbon Emissions 25% reduction by 2020 (below 1990 levels) 80% reduction by 2050

Clean?

Climate change Increased reliance on fossil fuels Methane more powerful GHG than carbon

dioxide Gas leaks (which also increase explosion risk)

Enough to negate the benefits of switching to natural gas vehicles

Habitat destruction

Gas Leaks: Boston

Gas Leaks: Washington, D.C.

Cheap? Compared To What?

Right now NG prices are very low – not profitable

What is the current fuel cost of: Solar? Wind? Hydro?

Last year, 50% of the state's new energy was either solar or wind.

(Just to be clear, we advocate distributed, individual and community scale renewables)

What Will The Price Be In The Future?

We are overdependent. Overseas prices are much higher than ours. Supplies may dry up. What happens when we further increase our

dependence on NG?

Reliable? Compared To What?(million cubic feet)

Marcellus shale dry-gas production rates and well number evolution are analyzed to understand overall productivity. A precise linear dependence between production rate and well numbers is demonstrated.

Marcellus proved reserves, along with production rate, allow projection of life span, which is shown far less than the 100 years, closer to 10 years.

The closeness to complete depletion of any domestic reservoir should lead to pricing escalation. An enhanced Hotelling model is derived, based on the entire US NG reserves, demand, and GDP.

With EIA (2013) Proved Reserves of Marcellus NG, with the escalated price model above, profitability should be impressive, but drop to zero by 2019 -- per our pro

forma.

Market Analysis

New England NG and Electricity Prices

The Other Fuel Source(Energy Efficiency)

Energy Efficiency

The most recently completed three-year energy efficiency program in Massachusetts saved the equivalent to:

• the annual electric consumption of over 314,000 homes, or• the natural gas usage of 52,000 homes.

Not Needed

No long-term infrastructure solutions are necessary under the

Low Demand Scenario

NEW ENGLAND GAS-ELECTRIC FOCUS GROUP - FINAL REPORTMarch 28, 2014 – by Black & VeatchFor New England States Committee on Electricity (NESCOE)

The Other Fuel Source(Energy Efficiency)

We Don't Need It

Fix the leaks Encourage further gains in renewable energy Encourage further gains in energy efficiency

ISO New England

• 37,000 MW of electric capacity resources

• 28,130 MW all-time peak demand (Aug 2006)

• At any given time the ISO maintains a reserve capacity:

• 125% of the largest source of supply (10 min)

• 50% of the second largest source of supply (30 min)

• 700 MW Projected shortfall

Shortfall?

ISO New England: 700MW shortfall without Vermont Yankee and without oil and coal.

We could get an additional 400MW just from fixing the leaks.

Additional solar last year = 237MW

Over 3-years until pipeline, 237 X 3 = 711MW

With 10% per year growth = 785MW

State's goal is 1,600MW of solar power by 2020.

State's goal is 2,000MW of wind power by 2020.

We Don't Need It

Fix the leaks Encourage further gains in renewable energy Encourage further gains in energy efficiency

Jobs?

Kinder Morgan: 3,000 jobs, mostly during peak construction.

But spending that much money ($2b) on energy efficiency would create even more jobs (24,000 approx), and they would be permanent, full-time local jobs in Massachusetts.

Natural Gas

Not Clean Not Cheap Not Reliable Not Needed

We Can Do Better.

We already are doing better.

NIMBY

Bruce Winnbruce@thebeatnews.org www.thebeatnews.org

www.thebeatnews.orgJane Winn jane@thebeatnews.org 413-230-7321

Reliable? Compared To What?

A five-year-old well has produced ½ of the gas it will produce in its lifetime.

When will solar, wind, hydro run out?