ipl2010 3 games to go
Post on 13-Jul-2015
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SITUATION
• Mumbai Indians are definitely in
• RCB has managed to make things interesEng for their fans – By losing so badly to MI that their NRR went below CSK
– But they are sEll through for sure • The only quesEon is – will they meet MI in the semis
• KXP & RR are out of the semis – But KXP can sEll play an important role
• DD, DC, CSK & KKR are in the race • 3 games to go
– That means 8 possible combinaEons
– Assuming no match is abandoned
• KXP vs CSK, DD vs DC, KKR vs MI
SCENARIOS
KXP vs CSK
DD vs DC
KKR vs MI KKR vs MI KKR vs MI KKR vs MI
KKR MI KKR MI KKR MI KKR MI
DD vs DC
DD DC DD DC
KXP CSK
SCENARIO 1 : KXP, DD & KKR WIN
• MI & DD get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB, DC & KKR for last slot – DC’s NRR is likely to slip further so
they can’t beat RCB
– KKR cannot beat RCB • Even if they score 200 & get MI out for
100 their NRR only moves to -‐0.053
– RCB will move to 3rd place – KKR can overtake DC provided they
win big or DC loses big (by 30 runs or 4 overs approx)
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs DC/KKR
– DD vs RCB
SCENARIO 2 : KXP, DD & MI WIN
• MI, DD, RCB & DC get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB & DC for 3rd & 4th place – DC’s NRR is likely to slip further – So RCB will be third
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs DC
– DD vs RCB
SCENARIO 3 : KXP, DC & KKR WIN
• MI & DC get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB, DD & KKR for 2 slots – DD’s NRR is likely to slip further &
KKR can’t overtake RCB
– So RCB goes through to 3rd place – KKR can overtake DD if DD lose big
and KKR win big. Very, very unlikely but theoreEcally possible
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs DD/KKR
– DC vs RCB
SCENARIO 4 : KXP, DC & MI WIN
• MI, DC, RCB & DD get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB & DD for 3rd & 4th place – DD’s NRR is likely to slip further – So RCB will be third
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs DD
– DC vs RCB
SCENARIO 5 : CSK, DD & KKR WIN
• MI & DD get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB, DC, CSK & KKR for 2 slots – CSK already has the highest NRR
• Likely to go up with a win
– DC currently has the lowest NRR • Likely to go down with a defeat • So they’ll end up below RCB
– KKR can’t overtake CSK or RCB – CSK should get to 3rd and RCB to
4th
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs RCB
– DD vs CSK
SCENARIO 6 : CSK, DD & MI WIN
• MI & DD get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB, DC & CSK for 2 slots – CSK already has the highest NRR
• Likely to go up with a win
– DC currently has the lowest NRR • Likely to go down with a defeat
– CSK should move to 3rd place with RCB taking 4th place
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs RCB
– CSK vs DD
SCENARIO 7 : CSK, DC & KKR WIN
• MI & DC get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB, DD, CSK & KKR for 2 slots – CSK already has the highest NRR
• Likely to go up with a win
– DD is currently below RCB in NRR • Likely to go further down with a defeat
– KKR cannot overtake CSK or RCB – CSK should get through to 3rd with
RCB in 4th place
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs RCB
– DC vs CSK
SCENARIO 8 : CSK, DC & MI WIN
• MI & DC get through outright
• NRR baVle between RCB, DD & CSK for 2 slotS – CSK already has the highest NRR
• Likely to go up with a win
– DD currently has the lowest NRR • Likely to go down with a defeat
– CSK should move to 3rd with RCB taking the last slot
• Semi-‐Finals – MI vs RCB
– DC vs CSK
SCENARIOS
KXP vs CSK
DD vs DC
KKR vs MI KKR vs MI KKR vs MI KKR vs MI
KKR MI KKR MI KKR MI KKR MI
DD vs DC
DD DC DD DC
KXP CSK
OUTLOOK OF TEAMS
• MI – in 1st place whatever happens
• RCB – Will qualify regardless of results – If CSK beats KXP, they face MI in semis
– If KXP beats CSK, they don’t face MI in semis
– Hence RCB would want a KXP win in the 1st game
– The other games don’t really maVer
• DD – If they beat DC, they get through and don’t face MI in semis – If DD loses to DC, they are out if CSK had beaten KXP
• So DD would want a KXP win in the 1st game
– However, if KXP beats CSK • DD only gets eliminated if they lose big to DC and KKR thrashes MI
OUTLOOK OF TEAMS
• DC – If they beat DD, they get through and don’t face MI in semis – If DC loses to DD, they are out if CSK had beaten KXP
• So DC (like RCB & DD), would want a KXP win in 1st game
– However, if KXP beats CSK • DC only gets eliminated if they lose big to DD or KKR thrashes MI
• CSK – If they beat KXP, they get through and don’t face MI in semis – And if they lose to KXP they are out
• KKR – If CSK bets KXP they are out – But if KXP beats CSK, they will watch DD vs DC with great interest
• What KKR would want is a one-‐sided match with one team thrashing the other • They would prefer DD thrashing DC because then a win over MI should get them through • If DC wins a narrow game, KKR is probably out
– Of course, KKR would have to beat MI
CHEERING CHART
DD vs DC
KKR vs MI KKR vs MI KKR vs MI KKR vs MI
DD vs DC
DD DC DD DC
KXP CSK
KXP vs CSK
INCONSEQUENTIAL
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