innovating under extreme uncertainty · innovating under extreme marketplace complexity ... take...

Innovating under extreme uncertainty

Smart risk management for emerging technology practitioners

Jeremy Clark jeremy@fxxinc.com

Emerging Technology�innovation challenges

1.  Innovating under extreme marketplace complexity

•  weak/conflicting demand signals

•  dispersed skills

•  competing technical standards

2.  Building the right ‘it’, vs building ‘it’ right

•  avoiding the Zima effect

1. �

Innovating under extreme complexity

Creating your own maps

1.  Seek out diverse sources of insight: •  Contrarian as well as consistent

2.  Practice synthesis and abstraction to isolate patterns: •  E.g., “From...To...” statements; Industry Maps

3.  Create “migration paths” to build confidence in the plan: •  Link simple first offers to more complex ones

4.  Rehearse scenarios to try out alternative futures: •  Growth - Constraint - Transformation - Collapse

5.  Take advantage of free or cheap Web 2.0 tools

1. Seek out diverse sources of insight

Institute For The Future

Future-studies consultants / trends agencies

Technology / VC blogs Industry / Trade

associations

Trendwatching

2. Synthesis and abstraction reveal patterns

Team brainstorming Virtual collaboration Tech idea

marketplaces

A platform for group idea sharing and development

2. �

Right ‘it’ vs. ‘it’ right

Spending years and millions, to build and perfect a product or service

that people don’t need or want.

The Innovator’s Nightmare

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping], verb:

 Testing the initial appeal and actual usage of a potential new product by simulating its

core experience with the smallest possible investment of time and money.

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

IBM & Speech-to-Text technology

Dear Mr. Jones,

In reply to your letter dated ...

$$$$$$$

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

Dear Mr. Jones,

In reply to your letter dated ...

Pretendotype

Pretotype

X

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

“We love the idea of speech-to-text and we’ll pay big $ for it if you can built it right.”

Before pretotype tests

After pretotype tests

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

The original Palm “Pre”

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

Prototyping

•  Investment: days, weeks •  Main Q: Can we build it? •  Deliverable: Working prototype

Pretotyping

•  Investment: hours, days •  Main Q: Would we use it? •  Deliverable: [Working] pretotype

Pretotyping Fake it before you make it

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

Multiple experiments with small subsets of target population

I

Time

T

R4

R1 R2

Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. –  All Rights Reserved

Fail fast

Compulsion to keep going

at all costs

minutes hours days weeks

Time Invested

months years

Jeremy Clark jeremy@fxxinc.com

fxxinc.com

pretotyping.org make sure you are building the right ‘it’ before you build ‘it’ right

Thank you