innovating under extreme uncertainty · innovating under extreme marketplace complexity ... take...
TRANSCRIPT
Innovating under extreme uncertainty
Smart risk management for emerging technology practitioners
Jeremy Clark [email protected]
Emerging Technology�innovation challenges
1. Innovating under extreme marketplace complexity
• weak/conflicting demand signals
• dispersed skills
• competing technical standards
2. Building the right ‘it’, vs building ‘it’ right
• avoiding the Zima effect
1. �
Innovating under extreme complexity
Creating your own maps
1. Seek out diverse sources of insight: • Contrarian as well as consistent
2. Practice synthesis and abstraction to isolate patterns: • E.g., “From...To...” statements; Industry Maps
3. Create “migration paths” to build confidence in the plan: • Link simple first offers to more complex ones
4. Rehearse scenarios to try out alternative futures: • Growth - Constraint - Transformation - Collapse
5. Take advantage of free or cheap Web 2.0 tools
1. Seek out diverse sources of insight
Institute For The Future
Future-studies consultants / trends agencies
Technology / VC blogs Industry / Trade
associations
Trendwatching
2. Synthesis and abstraction reveal patterns
Team brainstorming Virtual collaboration Tech idea
marketplaces
A platform for group idea sharing and development
2. �
Right ‘it’ vs. ‘it’ right
Spending years and millions, to build and perfect a product or service
that people don’t need or want.
The Innovator’s Nightmare
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping], verb:
Testing the initial appeal and actual usage of a potential new product by simulating its
core experience with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
IBM & Speech-to-Text technology
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
$$$$$$$
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
Pretendotype
Pretotype
X
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
“We love the idea of speech-to-text and we’ll pay big $ for it if you can built it right.”
Before pretotype tests
After pretotype tests
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
The original Palm “Pre”
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
Prototyping
• Investment: days, weeks • Main Q: Can we build it? • Deliverable: Working prototype
Pretotyping
• Investment: hours, days • Main Q: Would we use it? • Deliverable: [Working] pretotype
Pretotyping Fake it before you make it
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
Multiple experiments with small subsets of target population
I
Time
T
R4
R1 R2
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved
Fail fast
Compulsion to keep going
at all costs
minutes hours days weeks
Time Invested
months years
Jeremy Clark [email protected]
fxxinc.com
pretotyping.org make sure you are building the right ‘it’ before you build ‘it’ right
Thank you