important findings across categories: potential studies for the next phase center for environmental...

IMPORTANT FINDINGS ACROSS CATEGORIES:

Potential Studies for the Next Phase

Center for Environmental GeomaticsClimate Studies Division

Manila Observatory

Dissemination Workshop for Mapping Philippine Vulnerability to Environmental Disasters

Klima Climate Change Center8 July 2005

Purpose of National-Scale Risk Mapping:

• Identify priority areas for localized risk mapping

• Identify trends and themes across categories that may potentially be correlated

DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES!

Common areas:

Central Luzon

Bicol Region

Summary: Climate Disaster Risks

Common areas:

Western Mindanao

Summary: Climate Disaster Risks

Combined Climate Disaster Risk Map

∑RC = RTY + RRC + REL + RTI

Albay

Pampanga

Ifugao

Sorsogon

BIliran

Rizal

Northern Samar

Cavite

Masbate

Laguna

Summary: Geophysical Disaster Risks

Is there any other factor contributing towards the

occurrenceof shallow landslides in the Bukidnon and Lanao

areas?

Summary: Geophysical Disaster Risks

Combined Geophysical Disaster Risk Map

∑RG = REQ + RLS + RTS + RVO

Sulu

Camiguin

Ifugao

Davao Oriental

Sarangani

Benguet

Surigao del Sur

La Union

Lanao del Sur

Zambales

LAND USE MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS

What risk do climate and weather-related disasters pose on our livelihood?

LAND USE MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS

Needed: a more detailed study of how geophysical disturbances and slopes

affect or affected by plantations, forests and other sources of livelihood

GVA MAPS vs. DISASTER RISK MAPSAn Alternative Approach to Quantifying Risk to Livelihood

Together with maps of ecological resources, can a correlation be established between GVA and

disaster risk?

URBAN CENTERS MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS

To what extent are the resources of urban centers able to reduce risk? How can we

quantify the ability of urban centers to respond to, adapt to or mitigate climate disasters?

URBAN CENTERS MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS

What effect do urban centers have on geophysical disaster risk?

Urban Centers in High Geophysical Disaster Risk Areas

• ADVANTAGES– Resources– Response

Reduces disaster risk

• DISADVANTAGES– Collateral damage

• E.g. collapsing buildings, ground liquefaction

Compounds the disaster risk!

ECOLOGICAL PRIORITIES MAP vs. CLIMATE DISASTER MAPS

How will the projected climate change potentially affect the country’s ecosystems,

particularly in areas of high marine and terrestrial priority?

ECOLOGICAL PRIORITIES MAP vs. CLIMATE DISASTER MAPS

Will socio-economic pressures compound the effect of climate change? How will

changes in population and land use affect priority rankings?

GROUNDWATER AVAILABILITY MAPS and the RISK to EL NIÑO

SLOPE and FOREST COVER vs. LANDSLIDES

MINES, RIVER BASINS and CRITICAL WATERSHEDS

MAPPING ECOLOGICAL DISASTER RISKS: What is the possibility of water contamination due to mining

activities? This may be compounded by geophysical, climate and weather-related disasters.

The Next Phase of Risk Mapping:1. Review and reformulate framework for

determining risk, R = HEV:– Consider possible collateral hazards– Consider livelihood as well as lives exposed– Consider multiple vulnerabilities– Consider efforts at adaptation, prevention and

mitigation that may reduce risk

2. Determine the effect of the presence of urban centers, and quantify access to urban centers using maps of location, slope and transportation.

3. Create ecological disaster risk maps.

4. Find correlations among the anthropogenic, ecological and disaster risk maps.E.g. ecological maps with climate disasters and possible climate change, population growth and land use change

5. Conduct localized disaster risk mapping in high-priority areas.

Thank you!