impacts of climate change on regions: european territory of russia
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Impacts of climate change onregions: European territory of
Russia
Anatoly Shvidenko
on behalf of the authors of Chapter 12 of the WG II Contribution to the 4th AR of the IPCC
Europe and European Russia in a global picture
Multi-model projected patterns of precipitation change 2090-2099 to 1980-1999, SRES A1B, WGI Figure 10.9
Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report
Regional specifics and heterogeneity
• On average, major regularities of global climate change over Northern Hemisphere are also observed in Europe and European Russia
• However, there are distinct regional features of climate change within the region and its parts; it generates diverse impacts, different positive and negative consequences and feedbacks, as well as needs of regional adaptation and mitigation measures taking into account current and expected socio-economic condition and the demographic trends
Climate change in European Russia
Regional trends of annual average air temperatureIn 1970-2004 by regions of European Russia and empirical forecast by 2025
Region 1 2 3 4 5 6Trend (oC/10 y) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Forecast - 0-0.5 0-0.5 - - 0.2-0.5
Correlation coefficients between global and regionalair temperature in 1900-2004 (R), first (R1) and second(R2) half of 20th century by regions
Region 1 2 3 4 5 6R 0.42 0.59 0.70 0.66 0.69 0.76R1 0.44 0.11 0.24 0.06 0.05 0.11R2 0.53 0.81 0.85 0.76 0.70 0.83
Source: Anisimov et al. 2007
Relative runoff changes
Projections of climate, cryosphere, and terrestrial ecosystems
Modeled mean annual temperature at the permafrost surface in Northern Eurasia (Romanovsky et al. 2007).
1980-2000 2080-2100
PERMAFROST
1981-2000
2081-2100 B1
2081-2100 A2
Dynamics of permafrost as follows from INM RAS climate model experiments: in 1981-2000 (top), 2081 - 2100 under scenario В1 (middle) and in 2081 - 2100 under scenario А2 (bottom) (Lykosov et al. 2007)
Land cover feedback in north: Two possible
scenarios of land cover change after the
permafrost thaw and it began thaw:
Wetlands
Steppe
Increasing climate variability and extreme weather events at different temporal and spatial scales: expected frequency and severity of heat waves;
numbers of days with heavy precipitation etc.
Summer (June to mid-August) 2003 heat wave: JJA temperature anomaly
of 3 to 5oC in most southern and Central Europe
Regions with more humid conditions (blue), regions where potential forest fire danger has increased in the 20th century (red), the region where agricultural droughts have increased (circled), and the region
where prolonged dry episodes have increased (rectangled).
Major wheat producing
area in Northern Asia
Changes in the surface water cycle over Northern Eurasia that have been statistically significant in the 20th century
Mescherskaya & Blazhevich (1997 updated), Dai et al. (2004), Zhai et al. (2005), Niu and Zhai (2008), Groisman et al. (2005, 2007), Groisman and Knight (2007)
Main expected impacts of climate change in Europe during the 21st century, assuming no adaptation
Main expected impacts of CC in Europe during the 21st century, assuming no adaptation
Key vulnerabilities
Global change impacts productivity and biogeochemical cycling of forests
0.5 - 3 3.01 - 5 5.01 - 7 7.01 - 9 9.01 - 11 >11
30 - 200 201 - 300 301 - 400 401 - 600 601 - 800 801 - 960
Live biomass
NPP
Major drivers impacted productivity of forestsclimate change• climate change• CO2 fertilization effect• nitrogen deposition• disturbance (fire and insects)• forest management
Empirical estimate of NPP 297 g C m-2yr-1
Average NPP of 17 DGVMs 338 g C m-2yr-1
(Shvidenko et al. 2008)
Empirical estimate of increasing productivity onaverage + 0.5% per year during 1960s-2005(Alexeyev & Markov 2003; Shvidenko et al.2007)
Statistically significant change of structure of live biomass of Russian forests in 1960-2005
0.01
0.1
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
NDVI
Above ground wood
Green partsRoots
Dynamics of ratio of LB to growing stock(red-stem wood, blue-roots, green-foliage)
(average data of 3745 sample plots)
Dynamics of the ratio for all Russian forests(normalized to the values of 1983)
Increasing risk of disturbances
Three major drivers of accelerating disturbances in forests: variability of climate, anthropogenicfactors and insufficient governance
Fire, insects, windbreaks, combined impacts
DISTURBANCES: Vegetation & Forest Fires in Russia
2003(integrated multi-sensor remote sensing data)
Burned area: 23 million ha (including ~18 million ha on forest land)
Consumed biomass: 505 Tg
Carbon released: 255 Tg C
Emissions 740 Tg CO2
70 Tg CO 2.3 Tg CH4
1.6 Tg NMHC 13.8 Tg C particles 2.6 Tg NOx
During last 10 years area of vegetation fire (above 2/3 – on forest land) exeeded 10 million ha
9
DYNAMICS OF FIRES NUMBERS AND BURNED AREA (PROTECTED TERRITORY OF RUSSIA)
Korovin and Zukkert 2003, updated
Carbon Fluxes (Tg C) due to disturbance in Russian forests in 1960-2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
Years
C F
luxe
s (T
g C
) Log
TF
Biotic
Abiotic
Total
Key uncertainties and research needs
• Improved long-term monitoring of climate-sensitive sectors and systems; development of integrated observing systems
• Improvement of climate impact models, development of regional models
• Enhancement of climate change impact assessment in areas with little or no previous investigation
• Understanding of terrestrial biota functioning under multiple stress
• Development of integrated impact models – needs of the corresponding studies with a special emphasis to human dimension and socio-economic aspects
Adaptation & mitigation measures
• The comprehensive evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures and technologies used in different regions of Europe to reduce the adverse impact of climate variability and extreme meteorological events
• Better understanding, identification and prioritisation of adaptation options in agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, forest management, health services etc.
• Evaluation of the feasibility, costs and benefits of potential adaptation options, measures and technologies
• Quantification of bio-climatic limitations of most important plant species
• Intensification of studies on the regional specifics of adaptive capacity
Implementation
• Identification of populations at risk and the lag of climate change impacts
• Approaches for including climate change in management policy and institutions
• Consideration of non-stationary climate in the design of engineering structures
• Identification of the implications of climate change for water, air, health and environmental standards
• Identification of the pragmatic information needs of managers responsible for adaptation
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