health and development in africa
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Health and development in Africa
Anja SmithStellenbosch University3 March 2014
What issues/topics come to mind when you think of “health in Africa”?
Which of these are most important and why?
Objectives:1. Exposure to economic frameworks to think through
implications of diseases in Africa2. Understand key concepts used to prioritise health
decision-making and track health outcomes3. To understand why more health expenditure does not
always lead to better health outcomes
What makes health different from other development topics (e.g. employment, education, housing, etc.)?
• Health an outcome of many inputs: health services, nutrition, sanitation, housing, education, etc.
• Health has both a stock and flow component• Loss of health imposes two sets of cost:
1. healthcare costs2. loss of income when ill
• Demand for health services not constant but “irregular and unpredictable”
• Severe market entry restrictions: high educational costs, licensing for medical doctors
• Information asymmetries:– Information asymmetry between doctor and patient:
“product uncertainty”, agency problem– Insurance information asymmetries: 1) Moral hazard: riskier behaviour due to fact of being insured2) Adverse selection: selection of poor(er) risks into insurance pool
What makes health different? (2)Arrow’s (1963) perspective: Uncertainty and medical care
Why does health matter?Health and economic growth
• Macroeconomic evidence: – impact is small, evidence is ambiguous, many
identification and measurement problems
Why does health matter?Health and economic growth
• Microeconomic evidence:– “clear[er] causal relationship from health to earning
potential and income” (Jack & Lewis, 2011)– “Some dimensions of health status and some health
inputs do affect labour supply and worker productivity. In several cases, the effect tends to be largest for the poorest.” (Strauss and Thomas, 1998 : 798)
WHY?
Why does health matter?Health and economic growth (2)
– Taller men earn higher wages (Strauss & Thomas, 1998)
– Household surveys show that poor health reduces number of hours worked but evidence of impact on productivity and wages less clear:
“…the health indicators used in those studies tend to reflect shorter-term health problems but wages tend to adjust relatively slowly.” (Jack & Lewis, 2011)
Health cycle
Burden of disease (BOD) & causes of death
Health services:
access and quality
(Improved) health
outcomes
Health expenditure prioritisation: how should we decide which ill person to help when we have limited resources?
Disability-adjusted life-years: -Number of years lost due to death, disability or illness-Because it emphasises “years lost” if disease strikes it places greater emphasis on the value of young life
What summary measures can we use to track health outcomes?
Health outcomes
Key concepts:• Life expectancy at birth• Under-five mortality rate: probability per
1,000 live births that a new-born baby will die before age five
• Maternal mortality rate/ratio: number of maternal deaths during a given period per 100,000 live births
Key health themes
• Public vs. private sector• Expenditure• Financing• Efficiency• Supply: facilities, staff, medication, etc.• Demand: information, need, responsiveness
Health and developmentCase study: Economic and social burden of malaria
Health and developmentCase study: Economic and social burden of malaria
• How does malaria prevalence influence development?
• Are all these channels valid? Which are likely to have the biggest impact?
• Immediate vs. long-term impacts?
Health outcomes in AfricaLife expectancy at birth in years by WHO region by gender, 2009
Americas
Europe
Western Pacific
Global
Eastern Mediterranean
South-East Asia
Africa
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
79
79
77
71
68
67
56
73
71
72
66
64
64
52
Male Female
Health outcomes in AfricaMaternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births by WHO region
1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
820 800
720
600
480
AfricaSouth-East AsiaEastern MediterraneanGlobalWestern PacificAmericasEurope
Burden of diseaseDistribution of burden of diseases as % of total DALYs by broader causes by WHO region, 2004
Europe
Americas
Western Pacific
Sout-East Asia
Eastern Mediterranean
Africa
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
10
17
18
42
44
71
77
69
69
44
41
21
13
14
13
14
15
8
Communicable diseases Non-communicable diseases Injuries
Burden of disease (2)Leading (10) causes of burden of diseases as % of total disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), African region, 2004
Road traffic accidents
Protein-energy malnutrition
Tuberculosis
Prematurity and low birth weight
Neonatal infections and other
Birth asphyxia and birth trauma
Malaria
Diarrhoeal disease
Lower respiratory infections
HIV/AIDS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1.9
1.9
2.9
3
3.6
3.6
8.2
8.6
11.2
12.4
Broad causes of death (males)Western Cape 2010
Source: Western Cape Mortality Profile 2010
Causes of death (females)Western Cape 2010
Source: Western Cape Mortality Profile 2010
Burden of disease (3): malariaClassification of countries by stage of malaria elimination (December 2012), WHO Malaria Report 2012
Burden of disease (4): HIVAdult (15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2011 by WHO region, WHO 2013
Show and discuss video on HIV
Elizabeth Pisani: Sex, drugs and HIV – let’s get rationalTED Talk – 10 April, 2010
Burden of disease (5): TBEstimated TB incidence rates, 2011, WHO
TB prevalence in South Africa relative to international context
Brazil Cambodia China DRC India MozambiqueSouth Africa Zimbabwe0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
46
817
104
512
249
490
768
547
42
424
75
327
181
548
993
603
Prevalence/100,000 Incidence/100,000
Case
s per
100
,000
Source: Western Cape DoH HIV &TB M&E presentation as derived from WHO Global Tuberculosis report 2012
Why focus on TB?• Costs of tuberculosis:
– Mortality– Reduced productivity due to morbidity
• (Global) public intervention (and coordination) required as at least three externalities associated with TB (Jack, 2000):– Highly contagious disease that spreads through social contact,
individuals unable to fully absorb the cost of the disease– Diagnosis externality: Early in disease individuals may be unaware of
need for TB diagnosis and treatment as symptoms are similar to those of other diseases
– Drug-resistance externalities: Incomplete treatment leads to exposure of community to the disease as well as exposure to more severe strains of the disease over time
• Tuberculosis viewed as “disease of the poor”: control and cure of the disease can make contribution to poverty reduction (Jack, 2000)
Human resources for healthNursing and midwifery personnel-to-population ratio, 2005-2010
Source: Health Situation Analysis in the African region, Atlas of Health Statistics 2012, WHO
Translating expenditure into outcomesLife expectancy vs. total per capita healthcare expenditure for 175 countries (WHO, 2011)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 900045
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
South Africa
Equitorial Guineau
US$
Translating expenditure into outcomes (2)Maternal mortality vs. total per capita healthcare expenditure, 161 countries - WHO, 2010 (maternal mortality) & 2011 (healthcare expenditure)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 60000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
South Africa
Equitorial Guineau
US$
Links in the chain in translating expenditure into outcomes in developing countriesFilmer, Hammer & Pritchett, 2000
Expenditure
Choices
Incentives
Outcomes
• Impact of primary healthcare often estimated as if translating healthcare expenditure into outcomes is simple technical process.
• “But individuals are guided by their own knowledge and resources in judging the quality of their health care (and that of their children).”
• “’…service delivery and overall effectiveness both depend on the demand for specific services, the price of services and the existing (and potential) supply in the private sector”. (emphasis added)
• Case for primary care is often made by assuming that “the public sector could deliver whatever the government (or some international forum) decided ought to be delivered”
• BUT • “Often, health service failures result from a
systemic mismatch between the traditional civil service incentive structure and the tasks required in the health sector”.
Links in the chain in translating expenditure into outcomes in developing countries (2)Filmer, Hammer & Pritchett, 2000
Expenditure
Choices
Incentives
Outcomes
1. Composition of expenditure, e.g. primary vs. secondary vs. tertiary care, HIV vs. TB, HIV vs. malaria, preventative vs. curative care
2. Output of the public sector: efficiency in translating inputs into outputs
3. Net impact of public sector supply on overall consumption: do people use more of the service simply because government is spending more? e.g. crowding-out of private services
4. Health production function: the impact of health inputs is mitigated by biological and medical facts, i.e. the effectiveness/appropriateness of certain treatments
Additional resourcesArrow, K. 1963. Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care. American Economic Review. 53(5): 941-973.Economist Intelligence Unit, 2011. Future of healthcare in Africa.Filmer, D., Hammer, J.S. & Pritchett, L.H., 2000. Weak links in the chain: a diagnosis of health policy in poor countries. World Bank Research Observer. 15(2): 199-224. August.Lagomarsino, G., Garabran, A. Adyas, A., Muga, R. & Otoo, N. 2012. Moving towards universal health coverage: health insurance reforms in nine developing countries in Africa and Asia. Lancet. 380(9845): 933–943.Strauss, J. & Thomas, D. 1998. Health, nutrition, and economic development. Journal of Economic Literature. 36(2), 766-817.William, J. & Lewis, M. 2010. Health investments and economic growth: macroeconomic evidence with microeconomic foundations. In Spence, M. and Lewis, M. Health and Growth, World Bank, Commission on Growth and Development. World Health Organization website: www.who.org World Health Organization. 2012. Atlas of African Health Statistics.
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