gold and silver shares, act ii aaii meeting, … · gold and silver shares, act ii aaii meeting,...

Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFPPresented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP®®

UsualUsual Disclaimers Apply. These are FF’s Opinions.Disclaimers Apply. These are FF’s Opinions.

GOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT IIGOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT IIAAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, 2011AAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, 2011

HEADLINE MESSAGE TODAY HEADLINE MESSAGE TODAY

SAVINGSSAVINGS INS.INS. ESTATE PLANESTATE PLANRESIDENCE RET. PLANRET. PLAN

STOCKSSTOCKSBONDSBONDSREAL ESTATEREAL ESTATE

COMMODITIESCOMMODITIESGOLD, SILVER 20%GOLD, SILVER 20% CASHCASH

WINERY, WINERY, RACING RACING

CARS, CARS, HORSES... HORSES...

"

June, 2010June, 2010

"Buy Low, Sell High" Means Buy Weakness, Sell Strength."Buy Low, Sell High" Means Buy Weakness, Sell Strength.

COMMODITIES 2001COMMODITIES 2001--20112011Ibbotson Commodities Cycles Report. [BRIC]

Until 2006, Miners Still Forward Selling Cu!

Ore = "Minerals Mineable Profitably."

Feasibility Study Needed for Bank Loans.

Major Miners Hunt Jrs.

10 Years to Production.

Then 10 Year Life…

FOGHORNFOGHORN ON GOLD ON GOLD INVESTINGINVESTING“Investing is About Probabilities, About

"Animal Spirits,” And Change!

M.P.T. - 80% of Returns Come

From Secular Trend (Bull/Bear).

A Secular Bull Market Trend Runs

On Supply/Demand Imbalance Anticipation.

Study Portfolio Managers Who've Made Money.

To Participate: Broker/Funds, Newsletters, Self.

"GOLD"GOLD IS IS MONEY,"MONEY," JP MORGANJP MORGAN

Is Sturdy/Inert Chemically. Doesn't Oxidize.

Is Alloyable. Animals, Vegetables Aren’t.

Is Divisible. Retains Properties.

Is Ductile. Can be Stretched.

Is Portable. Travels; No One’s Obligation.

Is Recognizable. Assayable,Weighable.

Is Scarce. High Unit Value. (BUT, Inconvenient.)

Memory Tip: “It’s a “It’s a SADD PRSSADD PRS Without Gold.”Without Gold.”

EVERYDAY REFERENCES TO GOLDEVERYDAY REFERENCES TO GOLDCalifornia: Golden StateA Golden Age Gold Rush Heart of Gold Midas’ Golden TouchThe Golden Rule Jason & Golden FleeceA Gold Credit CardGolden Parachute Gold CoastGolden BoyGold-Digger

Olympcs,Oscar,TonyGGlobes, Emmy

State House RoofA Gold RecordAlka Seltzer GoldAmstel Gold BeerHyatt Gold PassportGold Medal FlourHonda Gold WingCent.-21, Gold Std.McD Golden ArchesGoldmember Song+Movies: Die Hard 3+

DOLLAR “DOWN” GOLD “UP”DOLLAR “DOWN” GOLD “UP”

REASONSREASONS FOR PM BULL FOR PM BULL MARKETMARKETBOnd Market Peak. [Real Rates - Negative]COmmodities in Bull Market.DOllar Sinking/ Euros? Yen?COnfidence in Equities Down.Trade Deficit: $700 Billion, Rising.Deficit (Federal)-Monetary Inflation.Debts: Govts, Banks, Individuals=Enormous.Demand/Supply Gap of PMs Expanding.Derivatives - $1Q, Unfunded, Overvalued.Global Issues: Wars, RE, Etc...Au=Insurance.

HOW HOW NOTNOT TO BUY GOLDTO BUY GOLDNumismatic Coins: Expertise.Numismatic Coins: Expertise.

TV, EBay GoldTV, EBay Gold: Big Mark: Big Mark--Ups.Ups.

Jewelry:Jewelry: 10% 10% Gold?Gold?

(No Envelope Sales Either.)(No Envelope Sales Either.)

Bars: Real or Tungsten?Bars: Real or Tungsten?

Paper: GLD, SLV, WtsPaper: GLD, SLV, Wts--No!No!

Futures: 80% Investors Lose.Futures: 80% Investors Lose.

??

GOLD DEFENSEGOLD DEFENSE: PHYSICAL: PHYSICAL PMsPMsCOINS Are Free From Counterparty Risk.

Any Recent Date, Bullion Coins; 5%.

Eagles, Dimes Maples, Libertads.

NoNo Commemoratives,"Storage."Commemoratives,"Storage."

Not GLD, SLV (ETFs) Not GLD, SLV (ETFs) Avoid!Avoid!

Coins Are Like Wine Cellar; Don’t Trade Em!

Visit: Long Beach Coin Show, www.gata.org.

GOLD OFFENSEGOLD OFFENSE: : PMPM SHARESSHARES“Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,

Grow on Skepticism,Mature on Optimism,And Die on Euphoria.”

Sir John TempletonSecular Bull = P/E's Up. Relative Perf. Ok.Secular Bear=P/E's Down. Need Absolute Perf.2011 Market: 2nd of 3 Acts; Rise to $3k+/Oz.Buy, Hold Bricks; Trade Specs. Mr. Darcy £10k.

BULLBULL MARKETS RUN IN 3 ACTSMARKETS RUN IN 3 ACTS

PRECIOUSPRECIOUS METAL METAL RESOURCESRESOURCESFREE:

www.theaureport.com.northernminer.com.infomine.com.youtube.com(miners).321gold.com.jsmineset.com.goldseek.com.silverseek.com.gata.org.zerohedge.com

NOT FREE:www.iiconf.com.cambridgehouse.com.goldstockanalyst.com.dinesletter.com.lemetropolecafe.comhardrockanalyst.comPrecious Metal Investing

for Dummies, '08Mining Explained, N.M. FFs Guide to Gold, ‘08

GSA 10 YEAR TRACK RECORDGSA 10 YEAR TRACK RECORD

See: See: www.goldstockanalyst.comwww.goldstockanalyst.com, , Sample Letter Top Ten, of AprilSample Letter Top Ten, of April 2009.2009.

PM GEOLOGY TERMINOLOGYPM GEOLOGY TERMINOLOGYReserves: Defined by Ni 43-101/JORC.OP/Heap Leaching: Cheapest. Oxides: Cheapest Ore (Weathered).Strip Ratio of 1.5 to 1 = 1.5 Tons of

Overburden Removed Above Ore.High Grading: When Ore Prices Low,

Miners Dig High Grade Ore Only.Profits = Cash Flow, Au Price, Buyout.

JUNIOR MINING STOCKS JUNIOR MINING STOCKS -- FULP FULP 1. Politically Safe, Flagship Project.[200k Oz/Y.]

2. [Usually Au & Ag-OP, Oxides, HL, High Grade]

3. Experienced, Honest People.

4. Tight Share Structure.(<100M Shr)

5. Cashed Up & Access to Financing.

6. Professional Website, Board.

7. "Undervalued" [& 3rd Party Eval.]

www.miningcompanyreport.com/musings of: Aug.25,‘08, Dec.15,‘08, Feb.23,‘09, Dec.6,'10.

Mr. DYODDMr. DYODD

"MINING STOCKS ARE BURNING "MINING STOCKS ARE BURNING MATCHES."MATCHES." DOUG CASEYDOUG CASEY

GOLD MINING SPECULATIONSGOLD MINING SPECULATIONSGoldCorpGoldCorp (GG) $43, (GG) $43, 12 Mines,12 Mines,

2.7M Oz. Prod. in '11.2.7M Oz. Prod. in '11.YamanaYamana (AUY) $12, 3 Mines, (AUY) $12, 3 Mines,

1 M+ Oz. Brazil Production.1 M+ Oz. Brazil Production.New GoldNew Gold (NGD) $10, 350k Oz,(NGD) $10, 350k Oz,

3 Mines, Growing, Low Cost.3 Mines, Growing, Low Cost.Gold ResourceGold Resource (GORO) $25, (GORO) $25,

50k Oz, Mex50k Oz, Mex. Producer, Div.. Producer, Div.Premier GoldPremier Gold (PIRGF.PK) $7,(PIRGF.PK) $7,

Ewan Downie, Red Lake.Ewan Downie, Red Lake.Crocodile MiningCrocodile Mining (CROCF.PK)(CROCF.PK)

$1, Aus, 100k+ Production.$1, Aus, 100k+ Production.

PMs ARE “ACTIVELY MANAGED” PMs ARE “ACTIVELY MANAGED” Gold Anti-Trust Action Comm., www.gata.org, John Embry, Sprott.com,James Turk, goldmoney.com,Doug Casey, caseyresearch.com,Harry Schultz, Consultant,Richard Russell, Dow Theory,Paul Volcker Interview,Gulf Cooperation Council,Vice Chair, Russian Central Bank,Credit Agricole Report,Citicorp Equities Report, Don Coxe, Global Strategist, BMO, ETC.

(Strong (Strong Dollar Dollar Policy)Policy)

"ONLY A FOOL DISBELIEVES IN GOLD""ONLY A FOOL DISBELIEVES IN GOLD"

Secular Gold Bull Market, 10 Years Old, Secular Gold Bull Market, 10 Years Old, GrowingGrowing..

You Will Not Get Happy!

You Will Get Happy.

(Every Fiat Currency-exc. dollar-Has Died. Every PM Coin Ever Minted is Still Really Valuable.)

UNDERSTANDING SILVERUNDERSTANDING SILVERIndustrial & Monetary Metal.

Highest Electrical Conductivity.

Highest Solar Reflectiveness.

2/3 Ag Comes from Gold, Cu, Zn, Pb Mines.

US Strategic Stockpile Depleted 11/27/2000.

680M Oz. Mined 2008, Demand 800M Oz.

“Little Brother” Trading Pattern With Gold.

Seasonality: Runs Up From Sept. to May...

SILVER MINING SPECULATIONSSILVER MINING SPECULATIONSSilver Wheaton (SLW) $43,

$15B MCap, Caymans HQ, $4.01 Cost, Royalty Co.

Pan American (PAAS) $39, $4.2B MCap, 9 Mines, Aquiline.

Hecla (HL) $9, Idaho,$2.8B MCap, High Cost Mines.

MineFinders (MFN) $10, $1.2B MCap, Mex Mine Operator.

Great Panther (GPL) $4, Mex., $473M Mcap, 4M Oz,

SUGGESTED SUGGESTED PMPM SPECULATIONSPECULATION

"You Can’t Kiss ‘Em All," But Kiss At Least 5 Names.

1. Coins; Then Bullion Funds: CEF, PHYSShare ETF: GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, SIL Income: GGN (Yield: 14 Cents a Month)

2. Royalty: RGLD, SLW, FNNVFMajors: GG, PAAS, AUY,[Tier 2, 3-GSA Top Ten, Exc. PAAS, GPL.]

3. Producers: GORO, NGD, MFN, GPL

4. Dev/Explorers:TC, PIRGF, AUNFF

(Start at Bottom of Pyramid; Work Your Way Up.)

WWW.LEMETROPOLECAFE.COMWWW.LEMETROPOLECAFE.COM, 3, 3--3030--20112011GREAT SITE; TRY TWO WEEKS FOR FREEGREAT SITE; TRY TWO WEEKS FOR FREE