globalization: manifestations of the physical basis of globalization the issue the problem(s)

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Globalization:Globalization:

Manifestations of the Physical basis of Manifestations of the Physical basis of GlobalizationGlobalization

a.a. The IssueThe Issueb.b. The Problem(s)The Problem(s)c.c. Pathways to a solutionPathways to a solution

C.N. Papanicolas

Jefferson Lab Talkcnp@cyi.ac.cy

To Larry the scientist – the citizen

Globalization

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• “Globalization” has entered our ideological and political interpretational framework strongly and decisively.

• In its name policies and practices are established or justified, which affect significant aspects of our lives.

• It has supporters and adversaries!

But what is Globalization?

• A political-economical system, therefore a matter of choice (or imposition)? A social phenomenon or one with a natural background?

• A new phenomenon? Or the reoccurrence of an older one in a new more intensive form? Is it reversible?

Understanding the above is necessary for the management of modern societies.

Concerning Globalization

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The term Globalization made its appearance in the 80s and has been used widely ever since.

There is no commonly accepted definition. It is defined through the literature that examines the phenomenon.

• The Lexus and the Olive Tree, understanding Globalization T.L. Friedman (2000)

• The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order Samuel P. Huntington (1996)

• The End of History and the Last Man Francis Fukuyama (1993)

Authors: political scientists, historians, journalists

Globalization:

• Globalization is:“Globalization is not simply a trend or a fad but is, rather, an international system. It is the system that has now replaced the old cold war system…”

• It is not the first, but the second one. The first was in the period preceding World War I. “The period of globalization preceding WWI was quite similar to the one we are living today.”

• Occurrence:In 1990. Tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the end of the cold war.

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According to Thomas L. Friedman:

Globalization:

• First period of Globalization: (~1860 -1914)• Dominated by British pound, navy & culture• Build around falling transportation costs• Key technologies: railroad, steamship and the automobile

• Second period of Globalization: (1990 - ) • Dominated by American dollar, military power & culture • Build around falling telecommunication costs• Key technologies: microchips, satellites, fiber optics,internet

• Differences: In intensity and extend“The first era of globalization shrank the world from a size “large” to a

size “medium”, this era of globalization is shrinking the world from a size “medium” to a size “small”.

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According to Thomas L. Friedman:

Globalization:

Globalization is a global political-economical system of a global society of liberal republics (capitalistic economies),with mutual respect and co-dependence

In Fukuyama’s neo-liberal and neo-Hegelian analysis he points to the following:

• This system constitutes “The End of History” meaning that there will not follow more advanced systems.

• History has or had “directiοnality”, with natural sciences playing a regulatory role.

He argues: We entered this last stage of history with the collapse of the “existing socialism“ systems (1990)

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According to Francis Fukuyama:

Globalization:

He does not examine “Globalization” per se. He examines the political-economical system that was established after the end of the cold war and argues that the main confrontation that will take place on a global scale is that of “Clashes of Civilizations“

His theory became quite popular after September 11th .

From his impressive analysis, the following arise:• He dismisses the notion of “End of History” (Fukuyama). • We are in an unprecedented historical phase, both multi-cultural and

multi-polar.• This clash of civilizations will dominate in the new century, but other

systems will follow

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According to Samuel Huntington:

Globalization:

In general agrees with the characteristics of other treatments. In addition it argues:

• Correlated with the economical and cultural domination of the American Imperialism.

• There exist alternative and better management solutions of the world.

• It occurred in 1990 with the end of the cold war

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According to the “Left” view (Noam Chomsky, M. Hardt & A. Negri “Empire”...,etc)

Concerning Globalization (ΙΙ):

Globalization is:•The dominating status quo after the Cold War.

Main characteristics:•Political and Economical plexus covering and affecting the whole planet •Worldwide movement of goods, people, and information (in a capitalistic economy) •Science and Technology have lead us to this point

Occurrence:•In 1990! The tearing down of the Berlin Wall and in general the end of the Cold War.

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According to the most widely accepted view:

Concerning Globalization (ΙIΙ):

The criteria being used are unsatisfactory, do not answer the following:•How many Globalizations have occurred (Hellenistic, Roman, British, American...)?•Why the one we are experience is the last?

Occurence:•It can not be associated with the end of the Cold War, unless Globalization is a synonym of American hegemony.

Main Characteristics:•The worldwide transfer or information, goods and people is certainly important. It has been taking place since ancient times. However a threshold needs to be identified.

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Questions and problems:

KEY ISSUE: Identification of “thresholds”, “phase transitions”, “critical points”

Concerning Globalization (ΙV):

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CLAIM: Globalization is a new qualitative phase for human existence on this planet, characterised by objective physical attributes. It is important to seek characteristics of this “Phase Change” and “Thresholds” marking the transition to this change.

• Which is the previous and which is the next phase?• In which quantities (Physical, Financial, Social) can we observe

it; At which values (does the phase transition occur)?

Remark:The worldwide transfer of information, goods and people is

certainly important. It has been taking place since ancient times. However a Threshold needs to be identified.

Globalization:Scales and Characteristic Quantities

1. Distance2. Communication3. Energy

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We need to find in these quantities, thresholds that signify the transition to Globalization

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Concerning Earth and Human Societies

Physical parameters of the planet: How many people and with which kind of activity could this planet sustain?

This question could serve as Ariadne's thread in our quest to find the characteristics of the “Phase Change” we seek.

Planet Earth• Diameter: 12 740 km• Land Surface: 148 000 000 km2

• Solar Power intake: 89 PW • Population: 6,9 Billion

1. DISTANCE

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Travel Horizon: •Distance of functional human travel. The distance that an average person can travel with the technological and financial means available to him.

Chronically and Technologically defined

Travel Horizon limit:Half of Earth’s Perimeter: ~20 000 km

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Human Travel

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Human Travel

Travel Horizon:The distance that an average person can travel with the

available technological and financial means.

Working AssumptionAssume a 24 hour travel. Assume a financial limit equal to a week’s salary

Examples• On foot – On horseback: 100 km• Automobile or Train: 2 000 km• Airplane: 25 000 km

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Human Travel

Jet Engine

10 hours

15 hours

20 hours

24 hours

Air Transport limit (from Chicago, USA)

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Human Travel

$0

$1.000

$2.000

$3.000

$4.000

$5.000

$6.000

$7.000

1946 1966 1972 2004

FarePer Capita Monthly Income Monthly Worker Salary

Travel Cost from New York to London (return)

The financial limit for Transport

1. DistanceThe Threshold for Human Travel which signifies a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind, very recently, in the 1990s.

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2. Communication

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Information TransferHorizon for Information Transmission:• The distance that a substantial amount of information can be

transmitted with the given technological and financial means.

Working AssumptionAssume a 24 hour transmission period. Assume a cost limit equal to a day’s salary Amount of information: 50 Books ≈ an Encyclopedia (~ 10Gbit)

Technological limits• On foot or on Horseback: 100 km• Automobile or Train: 2 000 km• Airplane: 25 000 km• Electronically: ∞ 22

Communication

Communication Costs

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Communication

Technology and Communications Cost

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Communication

Cost of Transmitting Information

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Economic Barrier

Communication

3. Energy & Power• Energy Consumption• Destructive Power

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Energy Consumption Threshold Extremely Difficult Problem •Non-linearities•Related to the method of Energy production with social and technological restrictions

• Greenhouse effect• Nuclear waste

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Energy & Power

The Scale is set by Solar Energy intake and the tolerance of the ecosystem to tolerate deviations from it.

Incoming Solar Radiation

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Energy & Power

The Greenhouse Effect

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Energy & Power

Global Energy Balance• Incoming Solar Power ~ 0.175 x 109 Gw = 175 Pw

• About 1% (1500 Tw) powers wind activity

• Incoming Solar Power reaching Earth’s surface (ISP) ~ 168 W/m2

• Global Energy Consumption (2004) ~1.5 x 104 Gw

( = 10-4 Solar Power! )

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Energy & Power

Energy Consumption Threshold Extremely Difficult Problem •Non-linearities•Related to the method of Energy production with social and technological restrictions

• Greenhouse effect• Nuclear waste

First rough approximation: Assume that it cannot exceed a fraction of the available wind power. Let us assume 10%.

• Global Power Limit 1.5 x 105 GW = 150 TW• Local Power Density limit 85 W/ m2 (=0.5 ISP)

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Energy & Power

Hurricanes Est. Energy: 66,5 Pwh

Power: 3 - 300 TW

33Hurricane Katrina (August 2005)

Power Consumption Threshold

First rough approximation: Assume that it cannot exceed a fraction of the

available wind power. Let us assume 10%.

• Global Power Limit: 1.5 x 105 GW = 150 TW• Local Power Density limit: 85 W/ m2 (=0.5 ISP)

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Energy & Power

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Energy & PowerEnergy Consumption as a fraction of the Incoming Solar Energy

NYC: Power Consumption

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0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1910 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ratio to Solar Input

Local Limit

Energy & Power

3b. Desrtuctive power

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Hiroshima

Hiroshima Bomb = 0.018 Mt

(Castle Romeo = 15 Mt)

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We have crossed the threshold of complete annihilation of our planet

Destructive Power/ Energy• 2nd WW: 2 750 Gwh (= 2.15 Mt TNT)• Vietnam: 11 200 Gwh (= 8.75 Mt TNT)

• Hiroshima Bomb = 0.018 Mt• Castle Romeo (US) = 15 Mt• Tzar Bomba (USSR) = 60 Mt = 37 x106 GWh= 37 PWh

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We have crossed this We have crossed this threshold!threshold!

Energy & Power

1. DistanceThe threshold of Human Travel signifying a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind quite recently in the 1990s.

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2. CommunicationThe threshold of Communication (information

transmission) signifying a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind recently, in the 1980s.

3. Energy ConsumptionThe threshold of Energy Consumption signifying a

transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind in the 1970s.

Thresholds

Management of Globalised Societies

The first bad examples Environmental Management, Greenhouse Effect Management of Destructive Power

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Climate Change: Global Warming

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Atmospheric LimitWe have reached the limit of global tolerance for the change in our atmosphere’s composition.

a Phase Change?•It is clear that for the first time in human history we have reached a point when we have changed the climate of our planet

We must however point out that the Greenhouse effect does not offer a limit in Energy Consumption. Only in the production of certain gases and as a result the production of energy through specific processes (for example fossil fuel)

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Issues to be addressed:

•Better understanding of the problem (research…)

•Confront the problem (mitigation, adaptation)

Electricity Consumption

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Ecological Footprint

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• The Ecological Footprint is a resource management tool that measures how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its wastes under prevailing technology.

• Today, humanity's Ecological Footprint is over 23% larger than what the planet can regenerate. In other words, it now takes more than one year and two months for the Earth to regenerate what we use in a single year.

Ecological Footprint

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Ecological Footprint

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Final Remarks

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Final Remarks

For the first time in human history we have the ability to:

• Destroy or radically change the ecosystem we inhabit– With chosen destructive processes (nuclear or biological warfare )– Involuntary, e.g. Climate changes due to CO2 emissions

• We have unquestionably exceeded the planetary scale in many parameters (e.g. communication and information transfer, power densities )

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TrinityTIME: July 16 1945, 5:29:45 A.M. (Mountain War Time)

PLACE: Trinity Site Zero, Alamogordo Test Range, Jornada del Muerto desert, New Mexico USA

Final Remarks

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Louis Hubert LyauteyWhen his gardener objected when asked to plant a tree which would bare fruit after a hundred years, he said:

As citizens of this planet, as scientists what can we do?

• Living in a Globalized Earth • Education, Science and Society

“ We don’t have a moment to loose. You must plant it today! ”

Thank You!

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Helen & Larry, Thank You!

My best wishes for the next challenge.

Effects of Global Warming

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Ecological Footprintby HDI, nation and population

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Area that meets minimum criteria for sustainability

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Climate Change: Rising Sea levels