global water?
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The Environment InstituteWhere ideas grow
This world’s water - have we got enough?
Mike Young Executive Director, The Environment Institute
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Global water?• Energy• Health• Climate change• Supply• People• Challenges
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Energy
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Australia
WorldPrimary Energy
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Where could we go?
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Nicholson, Biegler & Brook (2010)
“How carbon pricing changes the relative competitiveness of low-carbon baseload
generating technologies”
Energy doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.039
Technology cost comparisons – should nuclear be part of the mix?
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Water
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Health• 3,900 children under 5 die every day from
water supply & sanitation related diseases• MDG to halve the number people without
access to drinking water and sanitation by 2015– Drinking water goal expected to be met– Sanitation goal will not be met
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
MDG Sanitation Target Progress
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Global flow and use
70% Agriculture, 20% Industry & 10% Urban
After Molden 2007
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Global water scarcity
After Molden 2007
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
International Trade
After Hoekstar & Chapagain 2007
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Causes increasing water scarcity• Adverse climate change• Population increase• Increased living standards• Over-exploitation• Declining water quality
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Threats to Biodiversity and Water
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Climate
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Getting hotter
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Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Has been getting drier in south & east
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
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mm
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less
Rainfall for Jarrahdale
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48% less
66% less
S tre a m in flo w fo r P e rth d a m s (P rio r to S tirlin g D a m )
PERTH
- 1%
- 3%
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
With half as much water, how much can you use?
Users
Environment
River Flow
Environment
River Flow
Users
River Flow
Environment
Users
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Global impacts of climate change• Some areas get wetter and warmer• Some areas get drier and warmer• The aggregate affect of climate change on
water supplies is expected to be negative.– By 2030 child malnutrition is predicted to
increase by 20%.
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
People
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
World Population
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Life Impact The University of Adelaide
One more Australian every 1 minute 18 seconds
Source: ABS, 2008
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
An emerging gap
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Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Water scarcity gap – billions m3
After 2030 Water Resources Group
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Life Impact The University of Adelaide
MENA = Middle East & Northern Africa
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Water stressed people
After OECD 2009
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
The reality1. Failure to provide reliable access to water and sanitation services
is one of humankind’s greatest failings.2. By 2030, over half the world’s population is expected to be living
in a water stressed region.3. Demand is growing and supply costs are rising.4. Health and quality of many rivers and aquifers is declining.
Restoration is a non-trivial challenge!5. The aggregate affect of climate change on water supplies is
expected to be negative.– By 2030 child malnutrition is predicted to increase by 20%.
6. The rate of change necessary to close the gap is an order of magnitude faster than has been achieved in recent times.
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Avoiding the crisis1. Parallel investments in governance, the development
of taxation systems, the removal of market distortions and freer trading arrangements for agricultural products.
2. Freer international trading arrangements will significantly reduce the costs of facilitating adjustment and attaining MDG targets.
3. The early introduction of greenhouse gas trading or taxation arrangements will reduce the costs of achieving a transition
• {Gravity is cheap.}
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Pricing arrangements1. In India, 15% of food is produced from
subsidised groundwater depletion.– Subsidies need to be phased out.
2. In many cases, the poorest of the poor would be better off paying the full cost of supply
– The cost of obtaining access to water from other sources a central source and the impact of unsanitary conditions on them is enormous.
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
GovernanceCorruption has been estimated to be raising the cost of achieving the MDG by $50 billion per year
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Financing investment (3 T’s)
After Marin and OECD 2009
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
The Environment Institute
Life Impact The University of Adelaide
Seven global observations1. When water is mismanaged, economic growth and development is inordinately difficult. 2. Globally, there appears to be under-investment in water.3. When accelerated investment is coupled with improvements in governance and water policies,
the amount that needs to be invested in the water can be reduced significantly.4. For many people, the lack of access to reliable clean water and adequate sanitation services
means that these people cannot participate in a green economy. 5. Investment in the development of water entitlement and allocation systems designed to both
ensure the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services and, also, to facilitate adjustment in the way water resources are used can be expected to pay long-term dividends.
6. The cost of resolving the constellation of water scarcity crises emerging around the world depends upon the extent of commitment to water policy reform and the development of improved governance arrangements.
7. The resolution of global water supply problems is heavily dependent upon the degree to which agricultural water use can be improved
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