global market forecast 2012-2031
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Global Market Forecast 2012-2031Presented by: CHRIS EMERSONSVP, Future Programmes & Market Strategy
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Aviation in the context of world economy
56.6m
illion
Jobs supportedWorld-wide
Globallycontributes
$2.2
trillion
Aviation’s globaleconomic impact
19thIf aviation was acountry ranked
by GDP
2,681,000,000passengers carried in 2010
$5.3 trillionworth of cargo shipped by
air in 2010
2%of global man-made CO2
emissions come from aviation
Source: IHS Global Inisght, OAG, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic continued to post strong growth
* since 2000
Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis
WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS
FinancialCrisis
+53%*
Source: ICAO, Airbus
Evolution of world annual RPK traffic
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic continued to post strong growth
* since 2000
Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis
WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS
FinancialCrisis
+53%*
Source: ICAO, Airbus
Evolution of world annual RPK traffic
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Focus on the last decade:
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World economic growth has clearlybeen driven by the emerging economies
Source: IHS Global Insight, ICAO, OAG, Airbus
Real GDP in 2005 US$
Evolution ofReal GDP
Emergingeconomies
+86%
World
+32%Developedeconomies
+18%
Evolution of world RPKs and real GDP (Base 100 in 2000)
Traffic growth+53%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Economy spending less time in recession even through recent crises
0%
15%
30%
45%
1919-1939 1940-1962 1963-1985 1986-2011
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
8 years of recession
<2.5 years of recession
1919 2011years
% of time spent in recession at world level
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 7
671 701 678265 263 254
746
1 889
3 377
419
560
739
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2011 2021 2031
Other
Asia-Pacific
North America
Europe & CIS
Leading to a larger “Global Middle Class”Global Middle Class*(Millions of people)
2,101
3,413
5,048X 2X 2
X 5X 5
% of World population30%7,000
44%7,700
60%8,400 World population
* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Population (billions) Urbanisation rate
World urban population expected to rise from 3.5 billion people today up to 5 billion by 2030
Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B
51%
60%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Urban populationRural populationUrbanisation rate
History Forecast
Source: UN Population Division, Airbus
Source: UN population division, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Visiting friends and relatives is a key driver of traffic growth
Region definition according to United Nations; Asia including Oceania, countries of the Middle East and countries of CIS,Europe including Russia
2010 world inter-regional migration corridors per sending and receiving region (million persons) North America
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Africa
North America
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Africa
Continued demand for VFR traffic:• >215M live outside their country of birth
• 700K foreign students studying in the US
•Visiting friends and relatives remained much more stable than business travel
•North America and Europe as largest destinations of immigration
•Asia-Pacific growing as a destination for immigrants
Source: UN Population Division, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0,001
0,01
0,1
1
10
0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000
Trips* per capita - 2011
2011 nominal GDP per capita ($US)
Emerging economies drive strong travel growth
* Passengers originating from respective country
4.6xIn 2031 vs 2011
China & India average propensity
to travel
USA
France
United Kingdom
Germany
India
China
China & India Average 2011
China & India Average 2031
Source: Sabre (annualized September 2011 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airlines are becoming more efficient
0
5
10
15
20
25
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Other costsFuel cost
Unit cost (cents/RPK in 2011 US$)
History Forecast
40%% cost from fuel 29% 13% 13% 33% 36%
Source: ICAO, EIA, IHS Global Insight
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
High oil prices here for the long-term
Average price in the year displayed
History ForecastBrent oil price (current US$ per bbl)
Source: IHS CERA, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2000 2010 2026**
Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*
Twin-aisle aircraft:
+8%
Single-aisle aircraft:
+10%
2010 vs. 2000
Backlog
* Passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 – 2030 new aircraft deliveries)
Twin-aisle aircraft:
+17%
Single-aisle aircraft:
+15%
2026 vs. 2000
Backlog
Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year
Page 13
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2011 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers
42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day, …
Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres
Traffic as of month of September; Source: AirbusLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
42Aviation
Mega-cities(2011)
> 90%of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via42 cities
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
… and by 2031 it will be over 90
Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres
Traffic as of month of September. Source: AirbusLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
2031 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers
92Aviation
Mega-cities(2031)
> 95%of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via92 cities
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Source: Airbus, OAG
Evolution of offered seats and number of served city pairs, long haul and short haul market, relative to 1995 (100%)
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Short haul served city pairsShort haul seats offeredLong haul served city pairsLong haul seats offered
2011 vs. 1995Long haul seats offered
+93%
2011 vs. 1995Short haul seats offered
+58%2011 vs. 1995
Long haul served city pairs
+42%2011 vs. 1995
Short haul served city pairs
+25%
Traffic as of month of SeptemberLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
Long-haul growing faster than short-haul
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus Global Market Forecast
A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast
Airlines• Business Models• Operations• Competition• Geopolitics
Trends Analysis• Consumer & Travel
Surveys• Tourism• Migration• Traffic flows• Passenger demands
Governments & Regulators
• Liberalization/ deregulation
• Investments and constraints
• Geopolitics
Network Development
• Route planning• Origin and
destination demand• Population centers
Traffic• Economics and
Econometrics• Fuel costs• Yields• Load Factors• Trade and Value of
Goods
Fleet trends• Aircraft economics• Utilization• Fleet age and
retirements
Market Research Forecast
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Air travel remains a growth market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Air traffic has doubled every 15 years
Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.7%
AirbusGMF 2012
ICAO total traffic
2011-20215.1%
2021-20314.4%
World annual RPK (trillion)
Source: ICAO, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Asia-Pacific airlines to lead in world traffic by 2031
2011 traffic 2012-2031 traffic 28%
27%
27%
7%
5%
3%
3%
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.7%
5.4%
4.1%
3.3%
7.3%
5.9%
5.4%
5.0%
% of 2011world RPK
20-year growth
32%
24%
20%
11%
6%
4%
3%
% of 2031world RPK
Source: Airbus GMF
World RPK airline traffic
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000
Domestic Russia
Japan - USA
PRC - USA
Asia - Middle East
Western Europe - North Africa
Domestic Asia
Central Europe - Western Europe
Western Europe - PRC
Indian Sub Continent - Middle East
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic Brazil
Asia - Western Europe
Intra Asia
Asia - PRC
Western Europe - South America
Domestic India
Western Europe - USA
Intra Western Europe
Domestic USA
Domestic PRC
Domestic PRC and Domestic India lead the growth in RPKs 2011 to 2031
2012 – 2031 CAGR
7.0%
2.2%
3.1%
3.7%
9.9%
5.1%
6.5%
6.0%
4.1%
6.5%
5.4%
6.5%
5.7%
5.6%
5.4%
5.2%
5.6%
6.2%
3.7%
5.0%
Largest 20 flows in 2031, by RPK (billion)2011 traffic 2012-2031 trafficDomestic PRC
2031 Share of World traffic
10.4%
10.4%
7.5%
5.3%
2.9%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
Source: Airbus GMF
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Global Market Forecast 2012: Highlights
Market value of $4 trillion
Traffic carried by domiciled carriers, fleet in service with domiciled carriersPassenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freight aircraft ≥10tSource: Global Insight, United Nations, Airbus GMF
GMF 2012 key numbers and 20-year change
World Fleet Forecast 2011 2031 % Change
RPK (trillions) 5.1 12.8 150%Passenger aircraft fleet 15,560 32,550 109%New passenger aircraft deliveries 27,350
New freighter aircraft deliveries 850
Total New Aircraft Deliveries 28,200
FTK (billion) 508.0195.1 160%Freighter aircraft fleet 1,620 2,940 82%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
20-year demand for 28,200 new passenger and freight aircraft
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)Jet freight aircraft (> 10 tons)
1,710 very large aircraft
Market value of $4 trillion
6,970 twin-aisle aircraft
19,520 single-aisle aircraft
Source: Airbus GMF
28,200 new aircraft
20-year deliveries of new passenger and freight aircraft
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Summary
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RPKs0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Aircraft Demand
20 Year Aircraft Demand(Thousands)
2031 RPKs(Trillions)AfricaCISLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificWorld
980 Aircraft1,240 Aircraft2,110 Aircraft1,960 Aircraft6,200 Aircraft5,840 Aircraft9,870 Aircraft28,200 Aircraft
3% of 2031 World RPKs
4% of 2031 World RPKs
5% of 2031 World RPKs
11% of 2031 World RPKs
20% of 2031 World RPKs
24% of 2031 World RPKs
32% of 2031 World RPKs
>12 trillion RPKs in 2031
Traffic by domicile:
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CISAfrica
Source: Airbus
Thank you
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