global futures and strategic foresight and the impact model keith wiebe international food policy...

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

and the IMPACT Model

Keith WiebeInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Workshop on Integrating Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services into Foresight Models

Bioversity, Rome7-8 May 2015

1. Improved modeling tools

• Complete recoding of IMPACT version 3

• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity

• Improved water & crop models• New data management system• Modular framework• Training

2. Stronger community of practice

• 13 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF

• IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish

• Collaboration with other leading global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

• Role of agricultural technologies

• Africa regional reports• Analyses by CGIAR

centers• CCAFS regional studies• AgMIP global

economic assessments

Rainfed Maize (Africa)

Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)

Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)

Rainfed Potato (Asia)

Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)

Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)

Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

3. Improved assessments

4. Informing decision making

• CGIAR centers• CGIAR Research Programs

• RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize, Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish…

• National partners• MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan

Africa, Central Asia

• Regional organizations• ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR

• International organizations and donors• OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA

6

The IMPACT Global Simulation Model

• International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade

• Global partial equilibrium model • Multimarket model• Water models• Crop models• Livestock model• Malnutrition model

IMPACT Model – Schematic

7

8

What is new in IMPACT 3?

• Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year)• 58 agricultural commodities

• Prices and markets• Three markets: farm gate, national, international• Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities

• Land allocation to crops• Activity-commodity value chain framework• New water models: hydrology, water basin

management, water stress on crops• Modularity of the IMPACT model “system”

9

IMPACT 3 Geography

159

• Countries

154

• Water Basins

320

• Food Production Units

10

Baseline model drivers and results• Core drivers: population, GDP,

land• Changes in technology• Climate change:

• Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change

• Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

12

2050 Wheat Yields: Climate Change Effects

for Top 10 Wheat Producers

Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3

Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)

Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Climate change impacts in 2050

Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)

Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Climate change impacts and trade

Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change)

SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5

The role of agricultural technologies

• Baseline to 2050, including climate change

• Linked crop models and economic models

• Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat

• Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger, resource use, efficiency

Source: IFPRI (2014)

Global DSSAT ResultsYield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline

MAIZE RICE WHEAT

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

MIROC A1B

Drought Tolerance (DT)

Heat Tolerance (HT)

Integrated Soil Fertility Management (FM)

N Use Efficiency

No-Till (NT)

Precision Agriculture (PA)

Water Harvesting (WH)

Irrigation - Drip

Irrigation - Sprinkler

Organic Agriculture

Crop Protection (Diseases)

Crop Protection (Insects)

Crop Protection (Weeds)

32%

16%

28%

12%

5%

9%

8%

4%

1%

1%

0%

7%

9%

21%

34%

18%

2%

6%

0%

9%

7%

8%

20%

14%

11%

32%

26%

10%

6%

1%

7%

4%

0%

7%

7%

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Benefits include reduced N losses, increased N productivity.

Efficient use of resources:Change (%) in N Productivity – Maize, Rice, Wheat. Irrigated vs. Rainfed, 2050 vs. Baseline (DSSAT)

(Compared to the business-as-usual)

29% less nitrogen losses 28% more N productivity

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Prominent impacts of Improved Irrigation Technologies Increased water savings (less water used) Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input)

Efficient use of resources :Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat

(Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation)

28% less water applied 22% more water productivity

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Percent Change in Cultivated Area, Developing Countries & Latin America :2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline

maize rice wheat

-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area

-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area

-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area

Developing

Nitrogen use efficiency

No till

Heat tolerance

Precision agriculture

Integrated soil fertility ..

Crop protection - weeds

Crop protection - diseases

Crop protection - insects

Drought tolerance

Drip irrigation

Water harvesting

Sprinkler irrigation

Latin America Caribbean

Nitrogen use efficiency

No till

Heat tolerance

Precision agriculture

Integrated soil fertility ..

Crop protection - weeds

Crop protection - diseases

Crop protection - insects

Drought tolerance

Drip irrigation

Water harvesting

Sprinkler irrigation

-5.7%

-7.5%

-7.7%

-1.9%

-1.0%

-1.6%

-1.2%

-1.4%

-0.6%

-0.3%

-0.1%

0.0%

-6.8%

-0.2%

-1.4%

-3.2%

-2.5%

-1.0%

-1.1%

-1.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.5%

-6.8%

-4.2%

-4.4%

-1.9%

-1.6%

-2.0%

-1.6%

-0.7%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-0.2%

-10.1%

-7.7%

-9.8%

-2.7%

-1.3%

-2.2%

-1.6%

-1.9%

-0.7%

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-10.5%

-0.4%

-2.2%

-5.0%

-3.9%

-1.6%

-1.8%

-1.6%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-5.1%

-9.9%

-6.1%

-6.7%

-2.9%

-2.4%

-3.0%

-2.4%

-1.0%

-0.5%

-0.1%

-0.3%

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Other environmental impactsFlachsbarth et al. (2015)

• Water footprints

• Nitrogen emission rates

• Changes in carbon stocks

• Risk of species extinction

Concluding thoughts

• Foresight modeling is a work in progress• Currently working on a number of improvements

• land use, livestock, fish, nutrition, health, environmental indicators (upstream and downstream)

• Collaboration is critical• To strengthen tools• To strengthen ownership and understanding

• Need to recognize limitations• Goal is to inform decisions

• Results are the beginning of discussion, not the end

Thank you

k.wiebe@cgiar.org