global forest ghg emissions and flr co removals · winrock.org comprehensive global analysis of...

winrock.org winrock.org

Global Forest GHG Emissions and FLR CO2 Removals Databases Winrock International (WI) and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) June 2017 Project Number P02004 / Award Number AVUS-00065

winrock.org

Comprehensive global analysis of emissions and removals from land use change Two databases:

1. Emissions: deforestation & three forest degradation activities

2. Removals: potential removals from four Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) activities

Emissions and removals offered at both national

and subnational (state/province) levels

Project Description

winrock.org

Project Description Offers consistent, comparable global estimates of

emissions from key REDD+ activities Applied scientifically robust methods and data

(generally consistent with IPCC Tier 2 approach): Global, spatially explicit datasets Published, peer-reviewed literature Nationally reported data

Consistent with methods and data applied in Pearson et al. (2017) Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical forest degradation: an underestimated source. Carbon Balance and Management 12:3 DOI: 10.1186/s13021-017-0072-2

winrock.org

Emissions Database

Deforestation Degradation • Logging (legal) • Woodfuel

collection • Fire

winrock.org

Emissions Database - Methods

Area of forest loss

• Non-Annex 1 Countries: Satellite imagery (Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI)

• Annex 1 Countries:

National greenhouse gas inventory reports

Carbon stocks in forests

• Tropics: Saatchi et al. (2011) pantropical map

• Other: Avitabile et al. (2016) global map

Emissions from

deforestation

winrock.org

Emissions Database - Methods

• Pearson et al. 2014 Methodology -- national data on harvest volume combined with values for logging emission factors

Selective Logging

• Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Mapping (WISDOM) model using national and global datasets

Woodfuel Collection

• Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) (applies MODIS satellite imagery)

Fire

winrock.org

Emissions Database - Results

Global emissions (Mt CO2e yr-1)

winrock.org

Results - Emissions Overall, deforestation emissions are the highest,

followed by logging, woodfuel, and fire. Indonesia and Brazil had highest total emissions by far. Developing countries had higher (land use change)

emissions than developed ones.

winrock.org

Results – Regional Patterns in Emissions Woodfuel

proportionately more significant in Africa Logging proportionately

more significant in Americas Highest total

deforestation emissions in Asia

winrock.org

Results – Emissions from Forest Degradation Significance of degradation activities varies

widely.

Forest degradation emissions in the top 15 degradation emitting countries. Size of the bubble is proportional to emissions for each activity, and color represents regions/continents

(Asia = red, LAC = green, Africa = purple, Europe = blue).

winrock.org

Results - Emissions

Total forest emissions (t CO2e yr-1) from the 15 countries with highest emissions. The size of the bubble is proportional to the country area, and color represents region/continent.

(Asia = red, LAC = green, Africa = purple, Europe = blue).

Country size not necessarily correlated with magnitude of emissions.

winrock.org

Removals Database – FLR Types Land use General category of FLR option Description

Forest land Land where forest is, or is planned to become, the dominant land use

Planted forests and woodlots

Planting of trees on formerly forested land. Native species or exotics and for various purposes, fuel- wood, timber, building, poles, fruit production, etc.

Natural regeneration

Natural regeneration of formerly forested land. Often the site is highly degraded and no longer able to fulfill its past function – e.g. agriculture. If the site is heavily degraded and no longer has seed sources, some planting will probably be required.

Agricultural land Land which is being managed to produce food

Agroforestry

Establishment and management of trees on active agricultural land (under shifting agriculture), either through planting or regeneration, to improve crop productivity, provide dry season fodder, increase soil fertility, enhance water retention, etc.

Protective land and buffers Land that is vulnerable to, or critical in safeguarding against, catastrophic events

Mangrove restoration

Establishment or enhancement of mangroves along coastal areas and in estuaries.

winrock.org

Removals Database CO2 removals developed through a highly

comprehensive review of literature on tree growth Growth curves built by collating data points

from over 144 studies on forest restoration and tree growth For most FLR types, growth rates were

simplified to <20 year and >20 year averages for database

winrock.org

Removals Database - Methods

1. Collect data from published and

unpublished studies on tree growth by FLR type

2. Apply data to Chapman Richards

Growth Model

3. Derive estimates of potential removals by

FLR type

winrock.org

Results - Removals

PLANTATIONS

winrock.org

Results - Removals NATURAL REGENERATION

winrock.org

Removals - Results AGROFORESTRY

(t CO2e ha-1 yr-1)

(t CO2e ha-1 yr-1)

MANGROVES

winrock.org

Removals - Results • Potential removals over 20 years if commitments are met.

• Indonesia, Nigeria, and India stand out as having the greatest potential

removals based on their large commitments.

winrock.org

Removals - Results

Bonn Challenge and FLR Commitment compared to total emissions from

deforestation and forest degradation

(bubble size).

winrock.org

THANK YOU winrock.org

/winrockinternational

@WinrockIntl

/company/Winrock-International

winrock_international