global energy perspective

Global Energy Perspective

• Present Primary Power Mix• Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability• Theoretical and Practical Energy Potential of Various Renewables• Challenges to Exploit Renewables Economically on the Needed Scale

Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of TechnologyDivision of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering

Pasadena, CA 91125http://nsl.caltech.edu

Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998

4.52

2.7 2.96

0.286

1.21

0.2860.828

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

TW

Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas Hydro Renew

Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)

US Energy Flow -1999Net Primary Resource Consumption 102 Exajoules

Energy From Renewables, 1998

10-5

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Elect Heat EtOH Wind Solar PVSolar Th.Low T Sol HtHydro Geoth Marine

Renewables

B

Elec Heat EtOH Wind Sol PV SolTh LowT Sol Hydro Geoth Marine

TW

Biomass

5E-5

1E-1

2E-3

1E-4

1.6E-3

3E-1

1E-2

7E-5

(in the U.S. in 2002)

1-4 ¢ 2.3-5.0 ¢ 6-8 ¢ 5-7 ¢

Today: Production Cost of Electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

Cost6-7 ¢

25-50 ¢

Cos

t, ¢/

kW-h

r

Energy Costs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

$/GJ

Coal Oil Biomass Elect

Bra

zil Eu

rope

$0.05/kW-hr

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea

Energy Reserves and Resources

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000

(Exa)J

OilRsv

OilRes

GasRsv

GasRes

CoalRsv

CoalRes

UnconvConv

Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)

Oil 40-78 51-151Gas 68-176 207-590Coal 224 2160

Rsv=ReservesRes=Resources

• Abundant, Inexpensive Resource Base of Fossil Fuels

• Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generation unless/until: technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, or unpriced externalities are introduced (e.g., environmentally

-driven carbon taxes)

Conclusions

• “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”

• M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881, “Energy Implications of Future Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Content

adapted from IPCC 92 Report: Leggett, J. et. al. in Climate Change, The Supplementary Report to theScientific IPCC Assessment, 69-95, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992

Energy and Sustainability

Population Growth to 10 - 11 Billion People in 2050

Per Capita GDP Growthat 1.6% yr-1

Energy consumption perUnit of GDP declinesat 1.0% yr -1

1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW

Total Primary Power vs Year

M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881

Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix

Data from VostokIce Core

CO2 Emissions

Projected Carbon-Free Primary Power

• “These results underscore the pitfalls of “wait and see”.”

• Without policy incentives to overcome socioeconomic inertia, development of needed technologies will likely not occur soon enough to allow capitalization on a 10-30 TW scale by 2050

• “Researching, developing, and commercializing carbon-free primary power technologies capable of 10-30 TW by the mid-21st century could require efforts, perhaps international, pursued with the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Space Program.”

Hoffert et al.’s Conclusions

• If we need such large amounts of carbon-free power, then:

• current pricing is not the driver for year 2050 primary energy supply

• Hence,

• Examine energy potential of various forms of renewable energy

• Examine technologies and costs of various renewables

• Examine impact on secondary power infrastructure and energy utilization

Lewis’ Conclusions