global climate change and island communities david j. keeling department of geography and geology...
Post on 19-Jan-2016
220 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ISLAND AND ISLAND COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
David J. KeelingDavid J. Keeling
Department of Department of Geography and Geology Geography and Geology
Western Kentucky Western Kentucky University University Bowling Green, Kentucky Bowling Green, Kentucky
American Geographical American Geographical SocietySociety
All Material used from copyrighted sources is fair-use for academic purposes only.
As we visit the Pacific and Indian Oceans…. Let’s demystify Global Climate Change
THE DEBATE…..THE DEBATE….. Political perspectivesPolitical perspectives::
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTHAN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
oror
UUNSUBSTANTIATEDNSUBSTANTIATED
SCIENCESCIENCE??
INTERACTING INFLUENCESINTERACTING INFLUENCES
CLIMATECLIMATE
CHANGECHANGE
HUMANHUMAN
ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES
PLANETARY PLANETARY CYCLESCYCLES
LONG-TERM LONG-TERM CLIMATE CLIMATE
OSCILLATIONSOSCILLATIONS
ECOLOGY AND ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT
KEY QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NET HUMAN CONTRIBUTION KEY QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NET HUMAN CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE? TO OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE?
EXTRA-EXTRA-PLANETARY PLANETARY
EFFECTSEFFECTS
THE DEBATE …..THE DEBATE ….. Economic perspectives:Economic perspectives:
CHANGING RESOURCE BASECHANGING RESOURCE BASE ---- Water, agriculture, minerals, etc.---- Water, agriculture, minerals, etc.
THE DEBATE …..THE DEBATE ….. Societal perspectivesSocietal perspectives::
HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ME HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ME ??
MY COMMUNITY ?MY COMMUNITY ? MY SOCIETY ?MY SOCIETY ?
Cedar Pines near Lake BaikalCedar Pines near Lake Baikal
CLIMATE IMPACTS
GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVESGEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES
The Intelligence CommunityThe Intelligence Community …… ……
Long-term analysis of “friction zones” Long-term analysis of “friction zones” that likely will develop because of that likely will develop because of global climate change.global climate change.
Are we asking the right questions Are we asking the right questions about the right places ???about the right places ???
The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!
We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know
The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!
We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should We don’t know what we should
knowknow
The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!
We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should knowWe don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we We haven’t known what we
could have knowncould have known
The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!
We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should knowWe don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have We haven’t known what we could have
knownknown We know that we don’t know what We know that we don’t know what
we need to knowwe need to know
The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!
We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should knowWe don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have knownWe haven’t known what we could have known We know that we don’t know what we ought to We know that we don’t know what we ought to
knowknow Knowing what we do know hasn’t Knowing what we do know hasn’t
helped us to know enough about helped us to know enough about what we don’t knowwhat we don’t know
CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE NOTNOT GLOBAL WARMING! GLOBAL WARMING!
Earth systems are complex – Earth systems are complex – some regions will grow warmersome regions will grow warmer
while others will grow colderwhile others will grow colder
SCALE, SCALE, SCALE!!SCALE, SCALE, SCALE!!
Local (micro)Local (micro)
SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !
Regional (meso)Regional (meso)
SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !SCALE, SCALE, SCALE ! GLOBAL (macro)GLOBAL (macro)
REALLY BIG …REALLY BIG … PlanetaryPlanetary
andand
Solar System Solar System
Planetary Influences….Planetary Influences….
Earth’s RotationEarth’s Rotation
- Pressure Gradient - Pressure Gradient
- Coriolis Force- Coriolis Force
Basic Forces:Basic Forces:
Coriolis ForceCoriolis ForcePressure Gradient
Hadley Cells and Global Circulation PatternsHadley Cells and Global Circulation Patterns
Planetary Behavior….Planetary Behavior….
Orbital Eccentricity = 100,000 Orbital Eccentricity = 100,000 yearsyears
Basic Forces:Basic Forces:
Planetary Behavior….Planetary Behavior….
Tilt of the Axis (23.5 today) = 41,000 yearsTilt of the Axis (23.5 today) = 41,000 years
Basic Forces:Basic Forces:
Planetary Behavior….Planetary Behavior….
Precession of Spin Axis = 26,000 Precession of Spin Axis = 26,000 yearsyears
Basic Forces:Basic Forces:
Milankovitch’s Orbital VariationsMilankovitch’s Orbital Variations
Orbital Eccentricity
TiltWobble
PLANETARY CIRCULATIONPLANETARY CIRCULATION
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATIONPACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
Global Climate CyclesGlobal Climate Cycles
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
WHAT ARE THE POLICY ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE POLICY ISSUES?
HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE
andand
CLIMATE CHANGE’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE’S IMPACTS ON HUMANS HUMANS
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY
RESPONSESRESPONSES
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY
RESPONSESRESPONSES
CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE LANDSCAPE
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY
RESPONSESRESPONSES
CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIESIMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSESPOLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES
CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIESIMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES
HUMAN IMPACTS ON HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE
Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable What are the observable fingerprints of global climate change:fingerprints of global climate change:
●
Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable fingerprints of
global climate change:
● Heat waves and periods of Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with unusually warm weather, along with droughtsdroughts
●
Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable fingerprints of
global climate change:
● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts
● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal floodingand coastal flooding
●
Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable fingerprints of
global climate change:
● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts
● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding
● Glaciers meltingGlaciers melting
●● Arctic and Arctic and
Antarctic warmingAntarctic warming
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES
Food SecurityFood Security
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES
Food SecurityFood Security
Loss of land for agriculture and Loss of land for agriculture and housinghousing
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES
Food SecurityFood Security
Loss of land for agriculture and housingLoss of land for agriculture and housing
Human HealthHuman Health
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES
Food SecurityFood Security
Loss of land for agriculture and housingLoss of land for agriculture and housing
Human HealthHuman Health
Transportation ChangesTransportation Changes
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES
Food SecurityFood Security Loss of land for agriculture and housingLoss of land for agriculture and housing Human HealthHuman Health Transportation ChangesTransportation Changes
Coastal and Indigenous Coastal and Indigenous PopulationsPopulations
Implications for Island States Implications for Island States are Graveare Grave
Areas such as the Maldives, the Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level risesea-level rise
Implications for Island States Implications for Island States are Graveare Grave
Areas such as the Maldives, the Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level risemay face inundation from sea-level rise
Many more may face devastation Many more may face devastation from more intense hurricanes and from more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in moderate greater rainfall even in moderate hurricanes hurricanes
Implications for Island States are GraveImplications for Island States are Grave Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall
Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level riseinundation from sea-level rise
Many more may face devastation from more Many more may face devastation from more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in moderate hurricanes in moderate hurricanes
Grenada, Haiti, and Cayman Grenada, Haiti, and Cayman Islands damage in 2004 Islands damage in 2004 possible harbinger of futurepossible harbinger of future
INNOVATIVE ADAPTION INNOVATIVE ADAPTION NEEDEDNEEDED
Small Island States produce only a tiny Small Island States produce only a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas emissionsfraction of global greenhouse gas emissions
Island States are among the most vulnerable Island States are among the most vulnerable to Climate Changeto Climate Change
Most island nations are dependent on high-Most island nations are dependent on high-cost fossil fuels and very expensive electricitycost fossil fuels and very expensive electricity
A significant number of people don’t have A significant number of people don’t have access to electricity, especially in the Pacificaccess to electricity, especially in the Pacific
Island States are especially suited to utilize Island States are especially suited to utilize modern renewable energy and energy modern renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies due to their economic efficiency technologies due to their economic and geographical conditionsand geographical conditions
Climate Change and Small Climate Change and Small Island StatesIsland States
Harbingers of Global Climate ChangeHarbingers of Global Climate Change
Spreading diseaseSpreading disease Earlier spring arrivalEarlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and Plant and animal range shifts and
population changespopulation changes
Coral reef bleachingCoral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy Downpours, heavy snowfalls, snowfalls, and floodingand flooding Droughts and firesDroughts and fires
What might we expect in coming decades?
Health ImpactsWeather-related MortalityInfectious DiseasesAir Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture ImpactsCrop yieldsIrrigation demands
Water Resource ImpactsChanges in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for waterImpacts on Coastal AreasErosion of beachesInundate coastal landsCosts to defend coastal communities
Forest ImpactsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsForest Health and Productivity
Species and Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and species
The systemic nature of climate change impactsThe systemic nature of climate change impactsis an added challengeis an added challenge
Climate Changes
Sea Level Rise
Temperature
Precipitation
Cultural ResourcesCultural Resources
THANK YOU!!THANK YOU!!
top related